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Jason Mackey's Pirates chat: 06.16.21
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Jason Mackey
11:41
Hello, everyone. And welcome to my weekly Pirates chat. We'll get started soon. The Wifi at my hotel stinks, so I'm going to walk over to Nationals Park. Might delay us a little, putting this into the 12:10 p.m. range. But leave your questions now, and I'll be back as soon as possible to answer 'em. -- Mackey
12:09
OK, with a little Europe '72 playing, let's rock.
Mike A.
12:09
Jason, Is there ANY chance the Pirates will give Anthony Alford another shot with the big club?  I'm skeptical that's he's really a big upgrade, but they had him on a very short leash in April, and his bat seems to be coming around a little bit in Indy.
Jason Mackey
12:11
Hey Mike. Yeah, I think he will get another shot. He has to, right? I agree that his start to the season wasn't good, and he should have been sent down. Looked flat-out lost at the plate. But he's been showing he's made adjustments -- which Shelton acknowledged the other day -- and I would imagine it won't be long before we see him again.
CB
12:11
How serious are trade talks at the moment? When can we reasonably expect to see some players traded?
Jason Mackey
12:12
I can't give you a date or anything like that, but I would still characterize now as early. You see this every year. Acquiring teams want prices to be lower. Selling teams don't want to get ripped off. Sooner or later, they'll meet. But I don't think it will be until at least July, likely after the MLB draft.
CB
12:12
When should we expect to see Cruz and Contreras promoted to AAA?
Jason Mackey
12:13
I would be shocked if they didn't do it before the end of the month, honestly. Cruz has some defensive issues, absolutely. And I like what I hear about the work he's doing. At the same time, I don't see them being a whole lot different in Class AAA. As for Contreras, I think there's been enough of a sample size that we'll probably see a promotion soon.
Gus
12:13
Since Rodolfo Castro has already gotten a taste of MLB action, any chance he can be fast tracked to the bigs following an eventual Frazier trade?
Jason Mackey
12:14
He could, sure. And I don't think he would be overmatched. However, I think they would like for him to get some time at Class AAA. I've used this line before, but it's important the Pirates are right here, not first. I don't care if he makes it up here at all this season, honestly. But I would hope when he does come up, that he's ready. There are lessons to be learned from Gregory Polanco.
Jim M
12:14
Jason,  Thank you for these chats.   Did you see the Fangraphs draft article in the last week that suggested the Pirates might go cheap on the first pick so that they would have more money available for the 37th overall pick? I think that would be a wrong strategy. That’s how you end up with Cole Tucker and Will Craig. To me the first pick (especially 1st overall) should be spent trying to find a future MVP.  I realize you’re going to miss a lot but you’ve at least got to try. Your thoughts?
Jason Mackey
12:17
Hey Jim. Did not see the article, but I've written and said the same things myself. It's a strategy the Astros employed in 2012 and 2015, and I think it's very much in play for the Pirates again. ... And I disagree with that being how you end up with Craig and Tucker. Didn't seem to hurt the Astros with Carlos Correa, did it? Poor drafting was how they wound up with those two. I think that exists outside of any particular strategy.
Gus
12:17
Do you think an O’Neil Cruz promotion will only gonna happen once Tucker is recalled?
Jason Mackey
12:19
No, I don't. You can't let what Tucker does or doesn't do affect what Cruz needs. I think that's why you've seen Tucker play some second base. This is a scenario I outlined before. Couple of you folks asked what happens with Cole Tucker. He's fine until someone else comes along and challenges his position. Well, that might be happening. And to this point, I would say I'm more encouraged by Cruz than Tucker, although that could obviously change. Could work out just fine with Cruz getting some outfield reps, Tucker moving to second, etc. The challenge of being a Class AAA manager. But you can't hold Cruz back is my point.
Mike
12:19
Jason, with Keller now back at 3A, maybe the Pirates should consider a few things, 1) work him as a long or short reliever. 2)  Maybe they should try and get him with a sports Therapist, work for John Smoltz in the 90's.  I think long term is to try and leave Will Crowe up for the time being and see what the kids got. What say you.
Jason Mackey
12:21
Couple things. 1. In the short term, sure. And Joel Hanrahan alluded to this on his appearance with the Fan Morning Show yesterday. Throw an inning. Throw two. Think short-term. But big-picture, Keller should be developed as a starter. He has the stuff. If you argue it's confidence issues, OK. But they're no less impactful when you pitch out of the bullpen. 2. They already do. They employ a team of mental health professionals. This is a different era than Smoltz pitched in. 3. Crowe gave them one of their best starts all season last time out and should have been allowed to continue. No issue with him staying, regardless of Keller.
Ben
12:21
Who is an underrated prospect acquired by Cherington to keep an eye on? I find myself keeping an eye on the farm teams almost as much as the Pirates these days
Jason Mackey
12:21
Good. Smart move. Watch Maikol Escotto. He was the "fourth" player in the Jameson Taillon deal, and he's having a very good season with Low-A Bradenton. Has been one of the best hitters in the league when healthy, honestly.
Darnell
12:21
Good afternoon Jason.  What’s the latest you are hearing as to which player will be drafted by the Pirates with the first pick?  Thank you.
Jason Mackey
12:23
Hey Darnell. Good afternoon. They don't know. Steve Sanders said so Sunday, and it backs up everything I've heard. That being said, I have heard more than anything about the Pirates potentially looking to sign someone under slot and repurpose that money with their next two picks, because this is apparently a good draft to do that. That would probably point to the high school kids (Lawlar, Mayer, House, Watson, etc.), although I don't think it guarantees it. Will be interesting to see what else Leiter and Rocker do. Wouldn't rule those guys out, either.
Ben
12:24
What kind of return would you expect Adam Frazier to get in a trade?
Jason Mackey
12:25
These are hard because the real answer is whatever the other team is willing to give up. But I don't wanna be a smart ass here. Using the Musgrove/Bell/Taillon trades as guides, you should at least be able to net a couple top 15 guys, maybe top 10, plus another, deeper reach or two into the basket.
DJ
12:25
Hi Jason, thanks for the chat. This one might be way too particular this far out, but do you think there’s a dark horse chance that Rocker could be the 1.1 selection as an underslot signing? Goldstein at FanGraphs mentioned a rumor that Leiter might be pushing himself to Boston, and if Texas and Detroit lean prep, as a lot of mocks have them, then it would seem to be in Rocker’s interest to give a number below slot at 1.1. Again, quite a bit speculative, but he’s being ranked and mocked around 5th or 6th a lot, so the thought occurred to me that this could be a less-talked-about possibility if we are thinking underslot at 1.1. Maybe a win win win scenario, in terms of a pick that will be immediately popular, quick enough to the big leagues, and enable overslot at 37. We all know these things shouldn’t be as important as BPA, but if it’s really 4-6 equivalent guys, then in the end getting Rocker below slot would feel like a happy “all-around” result.
Jason Mackey
12:26
Rocker is represented by Scott Boras. I really, really doubt Scott would accept a below-slot deal for his guy at 1-1. That would run counter to pretty much everything he's ever done. So, no. I doubt that.
Mike
12:26
why is Shelton constantly playing K.Tom?  I understand Rule 5, but he really hasn't shown me enough to play everyday.  I think Gamel has more power at this point and should be given more reps in LF.
Jason Mackey
12:29
I agree with you 100%, and I don't have an answer to give you, other than what they've said about him getting on base. Unfortunately the numbers don't back it up. Tom is getting on base at a .281 clip. Gamel has been at .290. Gamel, IMO, should be playing every day. I don't see Tom as a major league player, but I also don't run the team.
Wayward
12:29
Sorry about that!  We are in the 35-40 game area of the minor league season.  When, and who, do you see moving levels?  There seems to be some guys that warrant a move up.
Jason Mackey
12:35
Yeah, I think Cruz and Contreras are two of the most likely ones. Maybe Matthew Fraizer at High-A. Hitting .336, .978 OPS, he's 23. Wouldn't argue there. There are some pitchers who are close. Maybe Carmen Mlodzinski or Michael Burrows. I think I would let Priester and Thomas bake a little more and string together some dominant starts, although I wouldn't be mad if either was promoted. Santiago Florez has been absolutely dominant at Low-A and could deserve something. Would also caution that these are my observations from my afar. Those closest obviously know more about attitude, work ethic, maturity, that sort of thing.
Gus
12:35
In your opinion, is adding sunscreen to rosin, essentially creating a paste, a foreign substance?
Jason Mackey
12:36
No. I think that should be allowed. I think it's absurd that it's not. I also think it's absurd to change midseason like this. I would have banned anything other than sunscreen, rosin and pine tar (unless it's excessive) and started in 2022. That way, players know it's coming. Nobody can complain about getting hurt, unfair playing field, lack of notice or anything.
Carl in Carrick
12:36
Hi Jason.  Any idea if BC is close to trading Frazier since the trade value is possibly at its highest now?  Also,  what do you think the Pirates can get in return for Frazier?  Prospects? A major leaguer and a prospect?  Thanks.
Jason Mackey
12:39
Hey Carl, It's hard to quantify and articulate levels of closeness with a trade. No, I don't think he's sitting there right now mulling offers. However, if his phone call rang in 5 minutes with one that met their value threshold, I absolutely think Cherington would do it. Said before, to me, you should start at two top 10/15-level guys and something else, maybe two something elses if you look at what they got for the guys they moved this offseason. Now, all of that can obviously change if you wind up with a really, really good prospect. Maybe it's better to lump the talent into one guy. Again, with trades, it's not like ordering off a menu. I think there's a perception out there that it is.
V. Fontaine
12:39
Was the acquisition of Taylor Davis a sign that they expect to trade Jacob Stallings or am I reading to much into the Davis deal?
Jason Mackey
12:39
You're reading waaaaay too much into the Davis deal. He's played 22 MLB games, I believe. And, I mean, they might trade Stallings (although I doubt it). Signing Taylor Davis won't be the reason why.
Guest
12:39
Reynolds has been looking great at the plate and in CF. What are the chances he keeps this going and wins the batting title after just missing it his rookie season?
Jason Mackey
12:40
I don't see that. He's under .300. Not that he hasn't had a great season. He has. But that's a long way to go. Again, I love what he's done. He's had a great year. But I just don't see him hitting .330 or whatever to win a batting title.
V. Fontaine
12:41
I can understand if the Pirates pass on one of the Vanderbilt pitchers and go with one of the high school shortstops (Lawler or Mayer). That would make sense. But it's going to be a very tough sell to the fan base if they were to select someone like Hunter Davis. They have to draft the way they think is going to work out best for the team. But a move to draft Davis is going to seem like Daniel Moskos or perhaps more appropriately Tony Sanchez all over again.
Jason Mackey
12:43
You're right. Drafting Hunter Davis would be a hugely hard sell to the fan base, primarily because I have no idea who the hell Hunter Davis is. Henry Davis is a catcher from Louisville. Is Hunter his brother? I'm kidding. You're probably right about people getting upset. It would absolutely be a reach. But lemme play devil's advocate here: If the Pirates acquired a player viewed to be the best at his position and spent more to acquire better players in the comp and second rounds, is that really a bad draft? I go back and forth on that.
Bill
12:43
Saw your tweet about Alford/Tom, I agree lets give Alford another chance. You think Oliva will play himself into that mix maybe in a month from now?
Jason Mackey
12:44
Yeah, I think like Alford, he's absolutely someone who can and will get a shot. And while I've said I'm OK with Polanco playing because they really don't have anyone else, I also think it will be absurd if they keep playing Polanco and do not give chances to guys like Alford and Oliva.
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