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Front Office Chat: 9/2/22
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Anthony Franco
2:55
Hey everyone, hope you're wrapping up a good week!
2:56
I'll start a couple minutes early today since I believe I couldn't get to everything last week
Duffy Scliff
2:56
Do you think Spencer Strider’s 16K game moved him into 1st for NL ROY?
Anthony Franco
2:57
I'd have him slightly over Harris even before last night honestly. He's just been unbelievable, what a pick/player development success story for them
Guest
2:57
Do you know a good book that breaks down and gives a behind the scenes look at free agency, contract negotiation, things like that?
Anthony Franco
2:57
I'm not familiar with any, don't actually know if anything like this exists. If anyone else has suggestions they want to drop in the chat, I'll post them
Nomahhhhh
2:58
If Verlander and Mcclanahan each miss more than a couple of starts, who could win the AL Cy Young?
Anthony Franco
2:59
Could still be one of those guys, but if we're taking them out, I'd probably have Cease and Framber Valdez as my next two
3:00
Kevin Gausman leads AL pitchers in fWAR, he'll probably get some support for that. Ohtani's a little lighter than most of the competition on innings but you can argue he's been better than anyone else on a rate basis
Tony fernandez
3:00
Is Addison Barger underrated? Seems like he's had an amazing year but is getting lost in the (justified) Ricky Tiedemann hoopla.
Anthony Franco
3:02
I'm barely familiar with him, so you can lump me in with those who've underrated him. Baseball America put him in the Jays top 20 prospects midseason for the first time. Strikeouts are a little high but the infield fit and power seem intriguing
3:03
He's a good call for a deep cut prospect to keep an eye on. Seems like a guy the Jays are going to have to find room for on the 40 this winter to keep him out of the Rule 5
Dave just….Dave
3:03
More likely: Judge gets to 62 homers, or Pujols gets to 700?
Anthony Franco
3:04
Judge needs 11 more, Pujols needs six. I think it's Judge, hoping both guys get there though
Fergie Olver
3:04
Why do the Jays now have SEVEN outfielders (most of whom can't hit) when it's the offence that needs the kickstart?
Anthony Franco
3:05
I don't really get it. Roster expansion allows you to carry an extra guy you like in September, but having Tapia, Bradley and Zimmer all on the same bench feels suboptimal
Not a huge deal, but it's kind of redundant. Not like they're going to carry all of them on a playoff roster
thughes9302
3:05
Cardinals question: After the season, if Arenado opts out, what does that do to the Rockies/Cardinals agreement? I believe the Rockies owe another $20M for the outyears of the existing contract, so an opt out would require the Cardinals to make up that $20M in the new contract. My concern is that they tend to have an aversion to paying for the decline years of players (that was the reason they wouldn't go past 5 on Pujols and he left). Sorry for the paragraph but do you think an opt out would end the Arenado era in St Louis?
Anthony Franco
3:07
The Associated Press reported at the time of the trade that Colorado's future payments were conditional on him not opting out (although it's not clear if they'll still be on the hook for some of the deferred money that was technically part of Arenado's 2021-22 salaries)
3:09
I think, although I'm not positive since the details on the trade were pretty murky, that incentivizes the Cardinals to tack on some money later in the deal (as they did with the $15MM in 2027 at the time of the trade) before Arenado opts out if they want to keep him around. If he opts out and subsequently re-signs as a free agent, I'd guess that negates any future payments on Colorado's part
3:11
As for the second question, I don't think an opt-out would rule out a subsequent re-sign (or preemptive restructure that gets Arenado a bit more money before his decision). He seems to love it there, and paying Arenado through age-37 or 38 isn't the same as balking at Pujols through age-41
Denny Doyle
3:11
Is Bellinger a fit with the Red Sox next year on a one year make it deal?  At the very least he gives you speed/defense, and they have shown ridiculous patience with Franchy/Dalbec...
Anthony Franco
3:12
Yeah I like the fit there if the Dodgers non-tender Bellinger (which I expect them to do). Athletic enough to be a plus in Fenway's spacious right-center, obviously addresses a weak point on the roster
Bill
3:12
Any thoughts on what the Braves will be  doing with Ozuna?  He redefines offensive performance.Rosario is as bad or worse.
Anthony Franco
3:13
Surprised they haven't cut him already, kind of think that'll happen before the playoffs start
Guest
3:13
I know brad is the fantasy guy but I have a question. Im fighting for 1st seed (which is a pretty big $$ prize) and the team currently in first is going to win because the team he is facing wont reach his innings limit since he is trying to tank. How would you punish him/ensure teams meet that limit? Its only 24 innings
Anthony Franco
3:15
Hmm yeah, definitely a better question for Brad. I'm not exactly sure how what he's doing is advantageous, since I don't play in any leagues like this
3:16
If this helps him tank, couldn't you try to strip him of the draft pick or drop him further back in the draft order of the first round?
Joe J.
3:16
I hope MLBTR  brings back the mailbag. With Tim not having time to do it, could someone else take it over?
Anthony Franco
3:17
I imagine this'll be under discussion at some point, probably once we get new part-time staffers on board
3:18
Broadly speaking, we're trying to find more ways to make the Front Office subscriptions appealing and broaden the subscriber base. A lot of that revolves around the increased likelihood of getting your chat questions answered, and the mailbag is a bigger extension of that principle
3:19
The issue lately has just been one of time, since Steve, Darragh and myself have taken on a high percentage of the news coverage hours. Once we get additional staff on-board and trained, they should be able to take some of that off our plate and allow us to focus more on things like the mailbag
the beatles show
3:19
Hey, Anthony.  Thanks for the chat.  Always look forward to Friday morning.  Deader all this year, right?   Does anybody have any numbers on how many home runs Aaron Judge would have by now if we were still using last year's ball?
Anthony Franco
3:21
Yeah I think a dip in leaguewide slugging percentage from .411 to .395 has to be indicative of a deader ball, particularly with fewer strikeouts. Last year, 13.6% of fly balls turned into home runs. This season, that rate is 11.3%
3:22
Some of that could be weather, changes in ballpark dimensions (like the Orioles pushing the left field wall back), but it's a notable enough drop I think the ball has to be the primary driver for it
3:23
As for the Judge thing, that's impossible to calculate accurately because each individual ball is different. Even if the batch is by and large deader this year than it was last season, that won't necessary be true of every ball
3:24
So I agree he'd probably have more homers with last year's batch, but there's no way to know precisely how many. My guess would be two or three?
Josh
3:24
To answer “Guest”’s question, this isn’t a book, but this video by Matt Antonelli shares his journey in free agency and is pretty interesting
Anthony Franco
3:24
Haven't seen this, I'll check it out later. Thanks!
Astros fan
3:24
Yardbarker reported yesterday that the Astros had offered Comforto a 2 year/$30MM deal. Have you heard anything about this? Would this be a good addition for the Astros?
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