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Front Office Chat: 4/26/24
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Anthony Franco
3:00
Hey everyone, hope you're all having a great week!
Always excited to get into these
mlbfan
3:00
Is Kerry carpenter actually this good?
Anthony Franco
3:03
Pretty close to it, I'd say. Maintaining a 147 wRC+ would make him a top 25 or so hitter in MLB. That's a little too lofty for me, but I do think he's a well above-average bat who fits into the middle of a lineup
3:05
Could still have some reservations about the very aggressive approach, but he has plus power and enough bat control that he's tough to beat when pitchers do have to come into the strike zone. He hasn't hit LHP in a pretty small sample in his MLB career, but he mashes righties and he should at least get a chance to fail against lefties
TonyinSingapore
3:05
Times have changed. Should the MLB/MLBPA explore lowering the SP Win eligibility to 4 innings?
Anthony Franco
3:07
I'd stubbornly stick with tradition and stay at five. It's about two turns through the order, which is still doable for most starters
3:09
But it's also not a stat to which I pay any attention at this point. It has always been flawed but was probably mostly directionally right (at least for starting pitchers) for much of the game's history because the starter was expected to pitch most or all of that day. With how pitching usage has changed in the last 15-20 years, I don't think it has any value, and we've seen teams move away from it as some kind of predictive tool
Gwynning
3:09
The Pale Hose can't set the losses record... or can they?!?!?
Anthony Franco
3:12
I still can't see any way they lose 120+ games, but I also said in one of these chats (last week maybe) that I didn't expect anyone to lose 110 and I'd take the over on 110 for the Sox now. If they're sitting on a 3-30 record next Friday, ask me about the record again haha
Randy G
3:12
Thank you for hosting! What are the biggest surprises you have seen this season so far? Pick one from each league!
Anthony Franco
3:13
Houston's the obvious one. They've struggled in a way that I thought was reasonably foreseeable -- lack of rotation depth -- but I certainly didn't think they'd have a month anywhere close to this bad. On the positive side, Kansas City has been better than I gave them credit for
3:14
I wouldn't say that any overall team performance in the NL has been all that surprising. Credit to the Mets for bouncing back after their terrible first week. The Dodgers will be fine, but the back half of their lineup is worse than I thought it would be
riegs
3:15
What’s going on with Gleyber Torres? His savant page is pretty bleak. Just a slump to start the year?
Anthony Franco
3:17
Yeah I'll still defer to the career track record here. Unquestionably a terrible start -- strikeouts up, hard contact way down. The swing decisions aren't that different, but he's usually a good fastball hitter and he's getting killed on those so far
3:19
Still not worried enough to really change what I expect him to do moving forward. But obviously, if he's still playing like this a month from now, the Yankees will need to look at alternatives. It's not like he's got a plus glove to fall back on. He's just not contributing at all right now
Curious Minds Need to Know
3:19
How many in chat right now? Average for these?
Anthony Franco
3:20
15 right now. There are typically 20-30 people in the Front Office chats early in the season. It gets to like 50-75 as the deadline gets closer. Usually 40ish throughout the offseason
3:21
The free chats for the main site always have at least a few hundred
cedarpines park
3:21
Whatever happened to the knuckleball? Doesn't it create less stress on the arm than any other pitch? Is it out of favor? Does it no longer work? Is anyone using it?
Anthony Franco
3:22
Matt Waldron's holding a rotation spot in San Diego. He's not a full knuckleball guy but he uses it around 35-40% of the time. He's the only current knuckleballer in MLB
3:26
It's a super difficult pitch to master. Tough to control and it's one that some catchers just never seem comfortable receiving. We've seen a few guys tinker with it late in their careers -- usually as a last-ditch effort -- but not many successfully pick it up
3:27
I also think there's probably a scouting bias against it. It's not a pitch you see very often, so if you're a scout or a data analyst, it's not easy to tell whether it can translate from Double-A to the majors
Rick
3:28
Jordan Walker, Holliday, Keith, Scott II, Adell, the list goes on. How to you determine when it's just normal early prospect struggles or when it's a long-term issue? Tough to figure who's a drop or a buy low opportunity in Dynasty league.
Anthony Franco
3:30
There's no hard-and-fast rule, have to evaluate it case by case. Prospect stock matters a lot. Jackson Holliday and Victor Scott are both good prospects, but there's a huge gap between them in Holliday's favor. Age is a huge deal. Struggling in an MLB debut at 20 is less alarming than doing it at 24
3:32
The shape of the production's a big thing too. I'd generally be more inclined to have patience with a young player who has good swing decisions and contact skills but is making a minimal power impact than one who doesn't have any kind of discernible approach
Ranger Smith
3:32
Should I be concerned yet in Seager’s slow start? Also, what are your projections for Scherzer, who seems to be motivated to get back quick?
Anthony Franco
3:33
Not concerned about Seager at all. He had the atypical ramp-up after the late-offseason surgery. He'll figure it out
3:35
Slightly more worried about Max because he's a 39-year-old pitcher coming off a significant back surgery, but he certainly seems hellbent on getting back quickly and the stuff was still at near peak level last season
Chip
3:35
So an umpire can eject a Manager because of something a fan yell ? When if ever will MLB step in an set some limits on the umpire's action. They are totally out of control  and no penalties for their actions.
Anthony Franco
3:36
Haha I figured you'd have some thoughts on the Boone saga. MLB's not going to do anything about it but I'm with you on that one. Horrible job by Wendelstedt
riegs
3:37
What do you make of Crochet’s three good starts followed by his three bad ones?
Anthony Franco
3:38
Still encouraged. The ball in play results did him in against Minnesota and Cincinnati. The home run rate clearly isn't ideal, but he's missing bats as a starter and the walks haven't gotten out of control
3:40
It'd be a cleaner narrative if he struggled early and then improved over the course of the season, but it rarely works out that smoothly. If you'd told me before Opening Day that he'd have a 32% strikeout rate and a 6.4% walk rate over his first six starts, I'd take it as reason for optimism even with the ugly ERA
TheBeatlesShow
3:40
This has bugged me for years.  You've got teams...like the Giants, the Guardians, the Marlins...who always have strong pitching but never generate enough offense (power).  Well, if the pitching is really so good, why don't they move in the fences so the hitters they've got have a fairer chance to do some damage and so they'd have a better chance of attracting free agent sluggers?  (OK, the G-Men and the Fish are going to stay in the shallow end of the financial pool, but not the Giants.)  Anyway, you know what I mean here and thanks again.  This is a highlight of my Fridays...which may speak volumes about the state of my life, but it's true.
Anthony Franco
3:42
We've seen a couple teams do this. The Jays changed their outfield dimensions a couple years ago. The Orioles followed your logic in the opposite direction -- good hitting, limited pitching, let's move the LF wall back
3:45
It can work but there are logistical challenges. There's a financial cost to any kind of ballpark maintenance, and changing the stadium setup can affect the views and fan experience.

It's also a permanent response to what is probably a cynical window with your team. You might have a pitching-heavy team in 2024, but that could be completely reversed by 2027 if you change the roster and overhaul your front office/player development. Teams aren't going to want to make these kinds of changes every few years
Anthony F
3:45
Afternoon Sir! We are year 3 now of Vladdy G being a barely above average player. Time to stop thinking he is a “star”, Nevermind a superstar? Thanks.
Anthony Franco
3:46
Yeah, I agree. We saw in 2021 that he has a higher offensive ceiling than all but 10-15 players in MLB, but we're past the point where I expect him to perform at anything close to that level annually
3:48
Huge raw power and good strike zone awareness, but he's never consistently gotten the ball off the ground. He's better than a .214/.330/.337 hitter, but the median outcome is probably somewhere between his 2022-23 seasons. Good but not elite offensive player who doesn't offer much outside the batter's box
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