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Front Office Chat: 3/31/23
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Anthony Franco
3:59
Hello everyone, hope you all enjoyed your week!
4:00
I have to hold this one tight to an hour so I'll move a little quicker than usual through the questions. Let's get started
GBS42
4:00
It looks like Verlander will be out through all of April.  How much do you think it will hurt the Mets with Megill filling in during that time?  A big enough effect to cost them the division title?
Anthony Franco
4:01
I leaned Braves for the division to begin with, but they also lost Fried for a couple weeks yesterday. If Verlander only misses like three starts, the downgrade to Megill probably doesn't flip more than one of those games
4:02
So I don't think this particular IL stint is a big deal in itself, but it's a little more alarming in the bigger picture than he's dealing with a shoulder issue -- even one that's ostensibly minor -- at his age
svy
4:02
do you know if the umpires/mlb/mlbpa/etc. plan to meet soon to discuss how the rule changes are going?  the initial responses i gathered from an exhausting day of baseball yesterday were all generally positive except for maybe the pitch clock violations.
Anthony Franco
4:03
I don't know how often they're going to meet, but Manfred has spoken a few times about a willingness to adjust the rules based on player feedback throughout the season. They've already done that once during the last week of Spring Training
4:05
Guessing they'll keep a fairly informal line of communication open with the PA and umpires throughout the year to tinker with stuff as it comes up. They're not going to completely walk back any of the rules they put in but there'll be some situations where players want clarification on certain pitch clock calls, etc.
I still think that by around the start of May, everyone will mostly have a feel for what they need to do and violations will be rare
Fish factors
4:05
Marlins' pitcher Trevor Rogers - ERA above or below 4.10 in 2023?
Anthony Franco
4:07
I think a slight over. I still like Rogers quite a bit and expect him to be a lot better than last year, but he needs to get the changeup back to peak form to neutralize right-handed batters
And Miami's defense got worse over the offseason as they shuffled things around to add more life in the lineup
Rick
4:08
Do you think Kopech has failed to reach his potential so far due more to injuries or was he overrated? Debating if I should keep him in a keeper league or to just use the spot to stream pitchers here on occastion.
Anthony Franco
4:09
I think it's mostly the former. Lost a couple years to Tommy John, then opted out of the COVID season. Had to work in relief in '21 to not put too much of a toll on his arm, so the 2022 season was the first in which he got an extended run as a starter at the MLB level
4:10
Kind of a bizarre set of circumstances that have left him a little behind developmentally, but he threw a few more strikes towards the end of last season and he should be better positioned to maintain his stuff over the course of the entire year after making 25 starts last season
4:12
It's a weird one because his peripherals last year were much worse than his 3.54 ERA would indicate. So I think he takes a step back in the run prevention department while making strides with the strikeout/walk profile and ends up a better pitcher this year than he was last season, even if the ERA goes in the wrong direction to some extent
Guest
4:12
Opening day, steals were 21 out of 23 successful.  Do you see that trend continuing?
Anthony Franco
4:12
Don't want to put too much emphasis on one day but between that and the uptick in running this spring, it seems like that's having its intended effect
4:14
I don't expect the league's SB% to be above 90% over the course of the year. I actually expect that won't be markedly higher than the 75% range it has been in recent season when it's said and done, but that'd be because player behavior adjusts and we see more steal attempts from players with average or below speed who never would've run in years past
So I think the raw totals will go up a decent amount even as per-steal efficiency normalizes over time. Teams and players don't really have a great feel yet for how much the rule adjustments help in that regard
Ryan
4:14
Does a Javier Baez trade to Seattle make sense? If Dylan Moore is not back soon the M's might need help. Baez can play multiple positions and Trader Jerry and Scott Servais like that in a player.
Anthony Franco
4:16
Too much money for Seattle to take on after the year Báez just had. He's still due around $120MM over the next five years. Obviously they're not paying anything near that for a player they want in a utility role, so they'd have to be willing to move Crawford or Wong out of the starting lineup
4:17
Even if they got Detroit to pay down half the money or something (which I don't see why the Tigers would), I don't think it's worthwhile. He needs a monster first half to be a realistic trade candidate
Guest
4:17
Will Grayson Rodriguez be back before All Star break?
Anthony Franco
4:18
Depends on how well he pitches in Norfolk but I imagine the Orioles are hoping he forces his way into the picture by the middle of May, yeah
Rick
4:18
We get to keep two prospects in our dynasty league. James Wood is a very highly rated prospect, but does he stand above (not counting height :) ) other prospects to take one of the spots for 2-3 years? Does he have a reasonable chance of playing in 2024?
Anthony Franco
4:19
Huge minor league numbers, massive raw power upside. He had big strikeout concerns as a high schooler but he's made a lot of contact in the minors. I don't know who your alternatives are, but I have a hard time believing you've got two prospects worth keeping more than Wood
4:20
Late 2024 is optimistic but not impossible. He could finish this season in Double-A
James Outman
4:20
Nice start to the season last night for Outman.  I know the strikeouts are a concern.  How do you like his chances of playing well enough to stay in the lineup, at least against right-handed pitching?
Anthony Franco
4:21
Yeah I think the power and defense is enough to make him a decent strong side platoon option in center field. He pairs well with Trayce Thompson in that regard and should be a significant offensive upgrade on Jason Heyward
4:22
Unless there's a chance to trade for Bryan Reynolds at the deadline, I think Outman's getting the bulk of the CF work
Confused
4:22
Do the new rules give each team a supplemental draft pick if they have a prospect on its Opening Day roster?  Did the rules change to discourage/prevent service time manipulation?
Anthony Franco
4:24
You don't get a bonus pick just for carrying a prospect on the roster, no. If you break camp with a player who was on a Top 100 list at two of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline or ESPN and that player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three in Cy Young/MVP during their first three seasons, the team gets a bonus pick
So it's only for consensus elite talents and the player has to be really successful very early in their career. The vast majority of rookies aren't getting their teams a pick
4:26
The only pick awarded last year was to the Mariners for Julio Rodríguez winning Rookie of the Year. The Braves didn't carry Michael Harris II on the Opening Day roster
Devout Rangers Believer
4:26
Am I wrong to think the Rangers are force to be reckoned with? Everyone was/is expecting only 75 wins give or take a few. Us Ranger zealots asked Bochy into our hearts and he will deliver us from the depths of the standings.
Anthony Franco
4:27
I'm not as optimistic as you are. They've got as high-variance a rotation as any team in the league. Aside from Adolis, there are real questions in the other outfield spots. The bullpen is probably a little below-average
4:28
I don't think it's a bad team. They're obviously much improved from last season and if the rotation stays mostly healthy, they probably get in the playoffs regardless of the bottom of the lineup. But they're really reliant on good health from deGrom, Eovaldi, Gray and Heaney to carry them
The rotation depth drops off quickly behind Dane Dunning in the sixth spot
Ryan
4:28
I'm not an Angels fan. From outside looking in. Is it time to start a rebuild? I imagine the haul you could get for Trout and Ohtani would be huge. Then you probably get a top 10 draft pick. It has been nearly 10 years of trying to get something going. I don't see them as a playoff team this year. I just dont think they will have another chance to start a rebuild as good as this year.
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