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Front Office Chat: 12/13/24
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Anthony Franco
2:58
Hey everyone, hope you're all doing well! Lots to discuss this week. I'll try to go for about 90 minutes
Justin
2:58
Initial grade for Astros-Cubs deal for each team?
Steve
2:59
The Cubs talking of trading Bellinger to the Yankees and also trading for Kyle Tucker… If we only get a top 5 prospect for Bellinger and give up a few top prospects to get Tucker and we can’t sign him long term isn’t this a not so good move?
Anthony Franco
2:59
Just a couple of the many Kyle Tucker questions in here
3:01
I like it for both teams. Pretty risky for both but appropriately so. Astros got a lot back in return, so I get why they felt they couldn't turn this down. Cubs can weather losing Wesneski and probably figure Shaw can approximate the Paredes production
3:02
It's a hefty package for a rental but the Cubs are right on that line where adding one star player can (and probably will) make them the favorites in the NLC. They'll also get back a compensation pick if Tucker walks next offseason. That's not going to be as valuable a piece as Cam Smith, but it'll help backfill the system a little bit
3:03
Paredes also just feels like he's more valuable to the Astros than he is to the Cubs. His swing is tailor made for the Crawford Boxes. It's kind of a Bregman-lite profile with how often he hits the ball in the air to the pull side
baseball gods laugh and laugh
3:03
If the Mets pay down most of Starling Marte's salary, what kind of return do you expect?
Anthony Franco
3:04
Still not much. They could probably get a mid-tier prospect if they paid him to like $4-5MM. I assume they could pay it down to about $8MM if they were just looking to dump as much money as they can
ArenadNo.Or.Yes
3:04
What would Arenado's and Bellinger's market value be right now......or in other words how much of an overpay is it for the Yanks to accept their full salaries in a trade?  ...and what would the prospect cost be?  TY
Anthony Franco
3:06
I think Arenado's pretty close to market value if you include the $10MM the Rockies are paying. That drops him to 3/64, I believe. Three years feels about right, the glove still gives him a good floor. Maybe he'd land in the mid-50s as a free agent but I don't think the deal's terrible, just not a huge bargain
3:07
Less so on Bellinger mostly because it's front loaded and has the opt-out. If he were a FA, he'd probably get like 4/70, which is obviously more than 2/52.5 but less valuable because the deal he has now pays $32.5MM next year (including a buyout) and gives him the chance to opt out
3:08
So the upside for the team is minimal. It's hard to see him being better than a $32.5MM player next year. He's probably a little worse than that and will then need to decide whether he can beat $20MM. If the Cubs paid down like $10MM of next year's salary, I'd find it palatable
Positively Half St.
3:09
How do the Nats hold up as competition for Christian Walker? We Nats fans want Rizzo to overpay if that is what it takes to get him.
Anthony Franco
3:10
Don't see why they couldn't land him. A lot of short-term payroll space, obvious need at first base. He's almost 34, so if they privately think they're still a year away, maybe they feel it's not ideal to beat the market and give up a pick when you're expecting Year One to be the most valuable of a two- or three-year deal. That's the only real drawback though
Josh Elliott
3:10
What is the most realistic Padres deal Arraez, Cease, or Bogaerts?
Anthony Franco
3:11
Cease, Arraez, massive gap, Bogaerts
I don't think there's any way they're moving a significant portion of the Xander money. It was a bad investment on day one that has already aged more poorly than I expected
3:13
Seems like there's more smoke on Cease than Arraez, largely because the demand for Cease would be way higher. He'd be a much bigger loss for San Diego for the same reason, but that's a lot easier to line up if they're trying to do something approximating the Soto deal. Arraez wouldn't be a complete salary dump, but it's close
Chris
3:13
I am little confused when I keep hearing that the Angels need another infielder.  How bad was the injury to Neto?  With the return of Rengifo, along with the signing of Kingery, and Newman, I feel that they need an outfielder (probably CF) much more.  Ward, Adell/Moniak, Trout are not good enough.  Why not add Santander or trade for Bellinger?
Anthony Franco
3:14
I agree that right field is the bigger issue, but I think they realistically need to add everyday players on both the infield and outfield. Rengifo and Neto are both coming off injuries and you can't assume you're getting much out of Kingery or Newman. Those guys are who they are at this point
3:15
Also not ideal to have Schanuel at first base, but I assume the Angels are more confident in him taking a step forward than I am. To your broader point, though, they cannot go into next season with Moniak and Adell platooning in RF (or center if they move Trout to a corner)
Craig Mish the Dish
3:15
Is it more or less likely that the Astros re-sign Bregman now?
Anthony Franco
3:17
Feels like he's gone. This does save them some money -- there's around a $9MM gap in the respective arb projections for Tucker and Paredes -- but they're no longer desperate for an answer at third base
3:18
Easier to reallocate the cost savings to a first baseman and keep Paredes at third than pay the Bregman deal and move Paredes to first
Jc in Orlando
3:18
Nestor SP or WIlliams Closer which has more value?
At this point for a team like the Yankees in win now mode. I get having a top notch reliever but isn't an innings eater like Cortez a better value? Just trying to understand. I know when healthy Williams is great but he's gonna throw 50 innings this year vs 160?
Anthony Franco
3:20
I prefer the Yankees' end of it. Partly because I'm worried about Cortes' ability to continue eating innings after the late-season forearm stuff, partly because I'm not sure Cortes would even have been in the NY rotation on Opening Day
3:21
There's merit to stockpiling rotation depth but I doubt Nestor and Stroman would've been thrilled about opening the season in the 'pen if all of Fried, Cole, Schmidt, Gil and Rodón are healthy to start the season
3:23
I'm probably lowest on this one from Milwaukee's perspective out of anyone on the MLBTR staff though. Darragh and Steve both like Nestor more than I do at this point (and are closer to your line of thinking about the value of the bulk innings). Steve at least seems intrigued by Durbin as a potential everyday second baseman. I don't really know enough about him to say whether that's the case, but the general take from prospect analysts seems to be pretty lukewarm on him
Ethan
3:23
Is there any real smoke to Roki Sasaki going to a small market team (I ask as a desperate Pirates fan)? Skenes-Sasaki-Keller-Jones-Chandler would probably be the best rotation in MLB (or make trading for an impact hitter easier/less painful)
Anthony Franco
3:24
Not putting a whole lot of stock in it since Wolfe himself said that his comments were kind of off-the-cuff and not something he'd discussed in depth with Sasaki yet
But hey, it's better for you than if Wolfe had come out and said he knows Sasaki wants to play in a big city on one of the coasts!
3:25
Agree that Sasaki in Pittsburgh would be fun as hell
Seiya Hey Kid...you're being traded
3:25
The A's call and say they want to hire you as their PBO. Do you take the job?
Anthony Franco
3:26
Ha, I would get myself fired pretty quickly since I have no idea how to run an organization, but sure, I'll take the contract and give it a go. Call me up JF
Bystander
3:26
(when) can a player who JUST SIGNED a QO be traded.?
Anthony Franco
3:26
Can't move them until June 15 unless the player agrees
3:27
That's the case for every MLB free agent who signs a guaranteed deal. Accepting the QO qualifies
Buster P
3:27
Without knowing where ownership has chosen to set 2025 Payroll, is the best roster move for SFG to sign Burnes or Flaherty + a corner OF/1B. Goldschmidt on a 1yr wouldn't be a block to Eldridge .  Also given past success for SP rebounding from injury shouldn't any of Buehler, Scherzer, Soroka look at SF as favorable destination?
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