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Front Office Chat: 11/10/23
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Anthony Franco
3:56
Hello everyone, hope all is well!
MLP
3:57
I'm sure that the Free Agent Predictions List is a lot of work to get out as it is, but a fun add would be to update it with a non-MLBTR consensus: taking the mean of the years projected and the AAV projected plus the destination with the most votes (or top 2 if there's a tie) from the various other predictions you consider credible.  The general consensus I see on Cody Bellinger looks way low, and I think you guys are probably a lot closer to the way it will shake out (and I like the Giants as the destination, which a couple of you list); it'd be something to revisit afterward.  Easy enough to find what MLBTR predicted afterward, but figuring out what the general expectation was pretty much can't be reconstructed.
Anthony Franco
4:00
Tim has an internal spreadsheet tracking other lists. (We're way higher than everyone on Bellinger as you said, so we'll see how that goes.) I don't know if he intends to make it public, because it involves making some assumptions about who else we put stock in and it could seem self-serving if we fare better than other people and publish it
4:01
But he is tracking it so perhaps he'll do some kind of summary at the end of the offseason. We'll see
Willy
4:01
How many weeks before you release the 2025 free agent predictions
Anthony Franco
4:01
Haha. 52, I guess?
Manager vacancies
4:01
You needed a free agent manager contest this year too, haha.  Will Kevin Long ever be a manager?  When he got passed over for the Mets job years ago, I thought he would get a chance within a few years
Anthony Franco
4:02
Haven't heard much about that possibility over the past couple years. It's interesting that there aren't many examples of people making the jump from hitting (or pitching) coach to manager
4:03
The standard path is from bench coach. Seems like teams have kind of bucketed the hitting/pitching coach skillset in a different group than they do with the "people management/strategist" aspect of managing
4:04
Not to say that Long can't ever get a chance, of course, but he's not really following the typical manager-in-waiting trajectory
How can the Reds get the pitching?
4:04
Who says no? EDLC for Eury Perez
Anthony Franco
4:05
The answer is probably both given teams' aversion to trading prospects of that caliber but I would rather have Eury
Even with the heightened injury potential for pitchers, De La Cruz's minor league strikeout numbers would put him a little behind the best pitching prospect in baseball for me
4:06
I guess Eury's no longer a prospect but I'd take him over any pitcher who technically qualifies
How can the Reds get the pitching?
4:06
Which do you think adds more value for the Reds? A) trade McClain for pitching (assuming he is their best infield trade chip), sign Tim Anderson. B) sign Sonny Gray or ERod
Anthony Franco
4:07
The latter. I'm not all that optimistic on an Anderson bounceback. Trading McLain would get a good pitcher who's more affordable than Gray or E-Rod. I'm not sure it'd get them someone markedly better than either of those guys, Gray especially
Ryan S
4:07
Best guess on when the dominoes start to fall? A team like the Cardinals can't truly slow play the market for pitching right? I'd think they'd have an idea what X player is worth, make the best offer, and move to player Y of X is wanting to maximize money (which is also their right) And in a vacuum do you want Nola/ Gray or Gray/ trade for Bieber or Glasgow? Bieber and Glasgow both worry my a bit. But I'm not giving Gorman or Donovan up for ANY pitcher. Period. Which is another point. I know you have to give to get, but if they do something stupid and trade the offense, and yes, Gorman was a main part of that, next year they'll be looking for a Gorman, and you can't find them at 23 years old. I'd rather trade Donovan. But  I'd rather shave with a weed eater than trade either. I would say no to every single trade proposal, no matter the pitcher. Sorry this is long.
4:08
Would the Ray's do Glasgow for O'Neill? No money exchanging. Same to Cleveland for Bieber? I can see Cleveland balking before Tampa here.
Anthony Franco
4:09
A few thoughts: I agree the Cardinals will move early. I also wouldn't give up Donovan or Gorman for any rental in trade, although I wouldn't take it off the table if you're talking about someone with two or more seasons of control (Cease, Gilbert, etc.)
4:10
Rays definitely wouldn't trade Glasnow for O'Neill and I don't think either Tampa or Cleveland would do Glasnow for Bieber. Glasnow's better, and the Rays are probably going to run a higher payroll than the Guardians are
thebeatlesshow
4:10
Safe to assume major free agents are going to avoid the Angels (because the team is lousy) or will players simply take the most money, hold their noses and head to Anaheim (if Arte is willing to spend)?
Percentage chance (in your opinion) of Ohtani returning to Anaheim?
Anthony Franco
4:12
People will sign there. They have a lot of short-term payroll space. Even if they lose Ohtani, they're probably keeping Trout and still have some interesting pieces. Living in Southern California's probably appealing to some guys. They wouldn't be a priority destination but they'll be able to get players if they're making the best offer
4:13
As for Ohtani, I guess give me 15% on him re-signing? I know that seems low but it'd probably be like third or fourth if I were ranking teams in order of likelihood. I wouldn't have anyone above like 25% since he's so tight-lipped about his preferences
Obviously there are other teams that have a clearer path to winning, but it's not out of the question that Ohtani's just comfortable in Anaheim and Arte Moreno has shown he'll spend for big names at the very least
John B
4:14
After signing Matt Chapman, Giants trade JD Davis and Keaton Winn to the Brewers for Adames. Does that work or would the Giant need to add?
Anthony Franco
4:15
Brewers should do better than that for Willy. The difference in salary projection between Adames and Davis is less than $6MM and I'd much rather have the plus defensive shortstop than the fringe third baseman. I think they're pretty comparable hitters
4:16
Winn's a nice ancillary piece but not enough to bridge the gap between Adames and Davis
John B
4:16
Who would you rank as the top CF trade candidates?
Anthony Franco
4:18
I think Trent Grisham and Dylan Carlson both get moved. Not sure if you'd consider Max Kepler or Mike Yastrzemski legitimate center fielders but I could see either of those guys being dealt
I guess there's a world in which the Brewers trade one of Sal Frelick or Garrett Mitchell for a pitcher with a similar control window. That's a longer shot though
tigerFan
4:18
How should the tigers replace E-Rod?
Anthony Franco
4:19
I think they should be in on the Nola, Montgomery types. Yamamoto would be a great fit but it's pretty hard to see him ending up there. There should be enough payroll room to make a legitimate run at a #2 starter in free agency
4:20
Given Scott Harris' comments and the spending habits of Chris Ilitich thus far in his ownership tenure, I think it's likely they go after a Giolito/Flaherty/Lugo type. That'd be a little underwhelming for me
4:21
I like a lot of what the Tigers have in place and think they could be a legitimate AL Central contender if they're aggressive enough this offseason
Ryan
4:21
I know Jerry has not been big on signing free agents. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Whit Merrifield seem like two solid fits. Do you think Seattle goes uncharacteristic free agents or are trades more likely?
Anthony Franco
4:22
Yeah I'd be surprised if they didn't sign a free agent to a multi-year deal this winter. Either of those guys make sense, although I'd hope that they're the second-best offensive acquisitions of the offseason as opposed to a headliner
4:23
I know late-career J.D. Martinez doesn't fall into the "make more contact" mold that they seem to be pushing, but he rakes and the Mariners have Mike Ford as their projected DH
MIN/SEA
4:23
Is Polanco for Woo a fair deal?
Anthony Franco
4:23
Can't see Seattle doing it
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