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Feb3_BABS_BHQ chat
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Ron Shandler
7:00
BABS is back and as beautiful as ever. 2026 ratings and rankings for the Broad Assessment Balance Sheet are now available, and some exciting new features are coming within the next few weeks. For newbies, welcome – I’ll be gentle. For vets, welcome back. Let’s chat.
Broken Bat
7:00
Thank you for providing BABS to your members. It is value added, and the HQTeam keeps separating themselves from other fantasy sites IMO. Many of us are in keeper- auction leagues and that leads us to speculating on prospects etc. in order to potentially get the player for a $$ bargain. Having a player or few like that allows a team to perhaps go beyond the “ normal” to spend on the Top Tier Players. These prospects can be upcoming rookies or perhaps slow 1-2 year guys that have already lost rookie status. Is there perhaps a way to list these players in a group as you do Fish?
Ron Shandler
7:02
BABS already does this, at least for players expected to see some MLB time this year. The Experience risk indicators tag players with fewer than two years of MLB experience (e) and fewer than one year of experience (EX). They can be easily identified by just scanning down the Master spreadsheet. If you want a consolidated list, you can always sort the spreadsheet by that column (making sure to maintain the BABS ranking).
Broken Bat
7:02
So a novice getting into BABS. Can you maybe clarify what both the Sx and RX are in bottom line. Some players have higher Sx between the 2 filters, some have higher Rx. Thanks.
Ron Shandler
7:06
Welcome to BABS! SX and RX are recently added summary metrics on the Positional Analysis chart. They tell us how each player's skills and risk compare to the player population in a 15-team mixed league (top 345 players). They are indices. Any value over 100 indicates above average skill or risk. Any value under 100 indicates below-average skill or risk.  So, take Hunter Goodman, for instance... his 116 SX shows skill 16% above average; his 72 RX shows risk 18% below average. These levels will differ slightly for other-sized leagues, but precision is not important. The metrics are intended to give you a sense of how the players stack up within each position.
Hoyasaxa
7:07
Ron you made me a HQ fan and now I am a BABs disciple too.
Ron Shandler
7:07
Ah, BABS. She is very pleased.
Hoyasaxa
7:07
Ron - thank you for doing this chat! In a 16 teams mixed 5x5 with 10 Ps in active roster (8 reserve slots filled in reserve rounds at auction) and SOLDS, coming in with keepers schwellenbach 9, Ray 8, R.Suarez 4, Cade Smith 7, Devon Williams 9 (37 total) I have 5 P slots left to fill at auction and reserve rounds. Thinking 3 bucks for a skilled RP, 20 for one of the F SPs and 3 other skilled no/ low liability SPs for 20 total to complete 80 dollar staff — is there a different strategy you might suggest instead? Thanks!
Ron Shandler
7:09
In general, your strategy is sound, but it all depends on what's left in the pool. (F)ull-time starting pitchers are rare - you'll definitely have to pay up for them (if they're not already being protected by someone else) and they'll likely go for more than 20. I might opt to fish a little lower - maybe two mid-teens arms and the rest as you suggest. You don't necessarily need an anchor; you already have the beginnings of a solid core.
DrDave
7:10
Whoa?  Cal Raleigh with a risk factor or 6.00 ?  What gives?
Ron Shandler
7:11
Yeah, that's pretty harsh. But forcing your team to weather a projected sub-.240 BA over 600-700 plate appearances is harsh. Drafting that within the top 60 picks is harsh. And the inherent overall regression from such an outlier season makes him a big risk. It's a perfect storm of risk, especially where he's being drafted.
Guest
7:12
BABS newbie here; thanks for doing this. I play in both 15-team and 12-team mixed leagues. Are there differences in league size that I should be aware of when taking into account all the ratings/threshholds?
Ron Shandler
7:15
Less than you would think. There will be slight variations in the skills targets but not enough to truly make a difference. Skill is skill. Risk is risk. If you did nothing other than try to amass as much skill as you can while limiting your risk, that's the underlying thought process for any size or style of league. In Book 3, Chapter 15 of The BABS Project (free PDF), it discusses some of the adjustments you can make.
Paul
7:15
Hey Ron, thanks for doing this.  I've found BABS to be a terrific tool for draft prep but I find myself a bit at a loss when trying to evaluate trades or other moves in season since the BABS evaluations are fairly static, pegged to the start of the season.  How do you suggest evaluating players in-season utilizing the same principles underlying a BABS draft strategy?
Ron Shandler
7:17
In short, don't. In BABS' first few years, we published in-season ratings, but they were heavily influenced by the season's ebbs and flows and were not predictive at all. BABS needs a critical mass of stats to work, which is why we designate it as a draft prep tool.
Dumper
7:18
Cal Raleigh's $6 risk price really jumped out at me. Can you explain how that gets calculated?
Ron Shandler
7:18
He gets dinged $3 for the -A skills liability (essentially, a batting average in the bottom 25% of the league) and another $3 for being drafted in the top 60 players.
BadPens
7:20
Does BABS have any insights into any of the multitude of unsettled bullpens?
Ron Shandler
7:22
Insights? No more than anyone else, honestly. However, if you stock up on the most skilled bullpen arms, you'll invariably back into a few future closers. Scan down the Master spreadsheet to the asset groups with blanks in the playing time column (less than 85 IP) and without a saves designation. Groups like (E+,KK) have Abner Uribe. The (ER,K+) gorup has Jeremiah Estrada, Alex Vesia... these are not all typical names on closer depth charts but skilled arms to tuck away. At worst, they won't hurt your ratios; at best, they'll back into 9th inning roles.
Mets
7:23
Doesn't need to be a BABs centric answer, but.... how do the Mets deploy Mauricio, Baty, and Vientos?
Ron Shandler
7:24
In all likelihood, one of the three gets dealt, likely Mauricio (Stearns is not done yet). Baty becomes Jeff McNeil superutility guy and Vientos spells Polanco and Bichette at the corners.
Ray@HQ
7:25
Ron, I didn't get a chance to email you today, but tell your chat that the BABS ratings are live in the Grid View of the Customer Draft Guide...
Ron Shandler
7:26
You read it here first. Now you can use the CDG for the market value breakdown and see which players merit that value based on their BABS ratings.
Ron Shandler
7:26
There's more coming too. Exciting stuff in the next few weeks.
Tim
7:27
For younger players with little or no MLB experience, does BABS use minor league data to create skills/liabilities projections?
Ron Shandler
7:29
As much as Major League Equivalencies feed the projections here at BHQ (they do, sometimes a lot), that data also feeds the BABS ratings. She's not going to have a lot of insight into some hot fireballer at Single-A, but any player at AA or above with a chance at some MLB playing time in 2026 - BABS takes her best shot.
Ron Shandler
7:32
While I wait for the queue to refill, here's a very brief, unpaid, unsanctioned commercial message... I wrote a new book. It's called "Fantasy, Reconstructed: The Innovator's Playbook for Fantasy Sports" and it's available now in paperback and ebook at Amazon and the Bookbaby.com Bookshop. I like to write. People like to read. Seems to be a good match. Try it.
7:37
Okay, here are a few more random thoughts about Cal Raleigh. I often read that people are projecting his HR output by starting with the statement, "even if he drops off by 25%, his HRs would be...." That's the wrong way to look at it. On Opening Day, Raleigh will not be backing off from 60 HRs. He'll start at zero. 60 is not a legitimate point of reference. In fact, it was a clear outlier. The way we should be looking at this is, Raleigh's history has been as a mid-30s HR hitter with a BA in the .220s, .230s. Last season showed a level of advancement that may or may not be legit. We should be using that stat line as an adjustment to his history. HISTORY is the point of reference.  So, my projection for him would have a ceiling of 40-42 HRs and a BA in the .230s.... which is nowhere near the spot he's being drafted so far. Ah... a question! Onward...
Sidd F
7:37
I tend to use Rotolab's draft screen, which is oriented by position and projected R$, and highlight players with plus BABS profiles.  Is there a better way to identify targets in different rounds?  I used the FISH List once, but that seemed kind of passive, because it seemed to accept the market's judgment that Player X should be a ninth-round pick.
Ron Shandler
7:39
Yeah, the FISH list is pretty passive. Every draft is different. Honestly, I haven't used RotoLab in awhile. I suggest you post this question on the forums. There are a lot of smart BABSians there that will give you a better answer than I can. Sorry.
Guest
7:39
Any chance at all we could see a draft, live or otherwise, on YouTube or elsewhere, where someone experienced demonstrates using the BABS Stratege in action? That would be extremely beneficial for someone like me at least as a visual learner.
Ron Shandler
7:41
Doug Gruber and I did that last year. We don't have any plans this year, but that video must be floating around somewhere. Anyone? Buehler? Let's try a search and I'll ask around.
DrDave
7:41
AL-only 11 team, $260 for 23 players, auction.   I've been offered Raleigh who has a $7 salary.  Despite his risk rating,that is still a good price, correct?  I also have Jeffers at $3 and Teel at $10.
Ron Shandler
7:44
Anyone can be a good buy at the right price. $7 for Raleigh is a very right price. Now... should you decide to move ahead with that, you need a plan to absorb that risk cost. Who can you target with a cost under $2 or under $1? Where can you make up ground? These are the decisions you face now. Roster building is a giant jigsaw puzzle.
7:46
The cool thing about BABS is that we've been conditioned to try to find the best skill set to fit our $260 budget, but now we also have to balance that with keeping risk cost under whatever budget we set. It's a different dynamic. Jigsaw puzzle but also a chess game. So many metaphors!
7:49
And I should mention - the risk budget you set is based on your own personal risk tolerance and whether you are contending or rebuilding in a keeper league. If that $7 Raleigh decision is in a keeper league where you're rebuilding, his $6 risk cost is almost irrelevant. You need to embrace more risk when you're rebuilding.
7:51
And benchmarks, again... Anything under $40 in risk cost is great. Under $30 is better. Over $50 is starting to get too risky, especially if you're contending. But you might be the type of drafter who gets off on throwing caution to the wind. More power to you. Risk costs? We don need no freakin risk costs.
DrDave
7:51
Isn't part of Raleigh's risk premised on a snake draft (3.0 for being drafted top 60)?  Shouldn't that drop his risk if he is salaried at $7 in an auction keeper league?
Ron Shandler
7:52
True. Top 60 is equivalent to $20-plus players. So, if you're getting him for $7, then the $3 penalty for top 60 goes away. He becomes a $3 risk cost. Thanks - good pickup on that.
Ron Shandler
7:54
Last 6 minutes. Any final takers?
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