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FantasyPros Fantasy Football Chat (7/15)
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Bobby Sylvester
1:00
Hey, everyone and thanks for joining the chat. I'm Bobby Sylvester of the FantasyPros Football Podcast and I'll be answering as many questions as I can during the next hour.
DavinFaz
1:01
10 team PPR, 1st overall pick: Going CMC but unsure of who to take at the 2-3 round turn. Thoughts on Allen Robinson, Josh Jacobs (might fall to me), Gurley, CEH ???
Bobby Sylvester
1:03
I can't imagine Jacobs falling, but if he does, you have to pull the trigger. More than likely, Kittle, Sanders, K Drake and A Jones will all be off the board too which is the clear end of a tier for me. So I typically won't love my options at the 2-3 turn. I'd probably grab Evans or Beckham then reach for Gurley.
Bocabob
1:04
1/2 PPR 10 team , Higbee or Hurst? What round do you expect them to go?
Bobby Sylvester
1:06
I'm a major Tyler Higbee truther this season, and while I understand Gerald Everett was injured, Higbee had a cake schedule and he is due for regression, we aren't drafting him anywhere near his worth from last season or he'd be going quite literally in the 1st round. His 5-game stretch at the close of last year was better than any 5-game stretch in Gronk's career. Rather, you can get Higbee in the 7th or 8th. Hurst is a solid pick at ADP too but I prefer Higbee
Souper
1:07
Hello Bobby, thanks for hosting another chat!  If you had to choose between JK Dobbins and D'Andre Swift in a dynasty league, which would be your selection?
Bobby Sylvester
1:09
Swift is going to start right away and is the more talented football player IMO but this is easily Dobbins for me because running back's fantasy values depend much more on surrounding talent and team schemes than on individual talent. Swift could eventually be a low-end RB1 in Detroit's middling offense but Dobbins could quite literally be THE RB1 next season after Ingram is gone
Souper
1:09
Would you rather have James Conner or Melvin Gordon this season?  Do either hold decent keeper value anymore?
Bobby Sylvester
1:11
Every keeper league is different. Is it an auction league with dollar values? Do you lose draft picks? How large is the league? How many keepers? Because of that, I can't answer the keeper question because I suppose its possible in some leagues. Between the two, however, I prefer Melvin Gordon but not by much. I'll likely have no shares of either, as I prefer Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette and even Jonathan Taylor in that range
Redbull44
1:12
What are the chances of the 49er’s moving Mostert? What are his best chances of becoming a startable RB 2?
Bobby Sylvester
1:14
If he gets traded, I don't know of any scenario he'd become a fantasy RB2 unless it is to New England or if there is an injury to the clear starter (think Lamar Miller last season) and he is dealt to that team. I'm not sure it matters much though because the odds of him being dealt are probably 10%. He is only asking for 2 million more than he makes because he wants to be paid as much as Tevin Coleman since Mostert is the starter
Rick
1:15
Hey Bobby.  Can you list a few guys you would target and reach for in the 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds of a re-draft ?
Bobby Sylvester
1:16
Calvin Ridley, or Keenan Allen in the 4th

DJ Chark, Terry McLaurin or Raheem Mostert in the 5th

Stefon Diggs, A.J. Green or Tyler Higbee in the 6th
Chad Jones
1:17
I’m drafting from the 12th spot in a 12 team ppr league. How confident are you in the running backs at that spot. Wanting to go 2 RBs at the turn but unsure about the backs there.
Bobby Sylvester
1:19
I agree that 2 RBs at the turn is the play. There is a HUGE drop-off after RB12 so I'd aim for two of these in this order (Mixon, Drake, A Jones, Sanders, Jacobs, Chubb). I prefer all of them over the #2 WR in this season's fantasy drafts. I'd also consider Travis Kelce there but it's a little steep for me.
Chad Jones
1:19
Who are your top 3 super late QBs in a single QB league to target this year? My league ALWAYS drafts quarterbacks early.
Bobby Sylvester
1:20
#1 Tyrod Taylor (incredible early season schedule, great weapons, running cheat code)

#2 Ryan Tannehill (historically efficient last season, if he gets more volume, he is this year's breakout star)

#3 Joe Burrow (killer weapons, ideal game script and bonkers volume incoming)
Winston
1:21
Thanks for your time. *DYNASTY* Austin Ekeler filled the "Melvin Gordon role" well last year. Why would the Chargers ever diminish his touches for a rookie (Joshua Kelley) or the oft injured Justin Jackson? Ekeler is far more tallented and earned his new deal. Stay safe.
Bobby Sylvester
1:23
it isn't a matter of diminishing Eckler's touches, it's a matter of using him in the slot or even out wide and moving Jackson into RB when that happens. I agree that Eckler is quite talented but disagree that he is far more talented, or even more talented than Jackson. PFF had Jackson as the #1 runner per carry last season and I most certainly agree that he looks like a bonafide star on film.
NorCalNobody
1:24
While I am keeping an open mind, I believe my first round rookie pick in Dynasty will come down to Pittman or Higgins. I flip flop on a daily basis as to who it would be. While I would be fine with either, Higgins is who i am currently leaning towards at this time because I am currently stacked at WR and production in 2020 isnt the biggest goal. AI also like Higgins' QB situation and the probability that Green is gone after this year. Whats your take on these two players?
Bobby Sylvester
1:25
I love Michael Pittman the football player but in terms of receiving chops, Higgins blows him away. Yes, Pittman came into a good situation to see targets in year 1, but Higgins is a superior talent and should be that alpha dog in Cincy once AJ Green leaves next year. It's Higgins for me in dynasty
ButteredPizza
1:25
Hey Bobby, I’m picking fourth in a full PPR league this season. Thomas and Zeke are usually there with CMC, Saquon and Kamara all off the board. Would you be leaning Thomas over Zeke given it’s PPR?
Bobby Sylvester
1:27
In PPR, I'd put Thomas #2 on my board so he would be the pick for me. If the others are there as well, I'd take Saquon then Kamara then Zeke
Grant
1:27
Where would you expect Deebo Samuel to go in redraft given his broken foot and the fact he will be injured to start season? Is Jalen Hurd worth drafting?
Bobby Sylvester
1:29
It will all depend on how he progresses medically but as of now, I'm expecting him to fall to the 11th or 12th and I wouldn't touch him there. As for Hurd, he is a tremendous last round grab as his first five weeks on the schedule are all favorable and he has huge upside. He is a virtual lock for me in Week 1 DFS lineups
MissouriMal
1:29
Hey Bobby, love your work man, keep up the great job. Tough wide receiver question. AJ Brown, McLaurin, Sutton, and Chark are all sitting there when you’re on the clock. Who are you grabbing and why?
Bobby Sylvester
1:31
Great question--these four are challenging to separate. I love Chark and McLaurin at their ADPs so I'll have tons of shares of both but for me, I'm going AJ Brown of the bunch, primarily because he plays in one of the best offenses in football. From the time Ryan Tannehill took over, they outscored the Cowboys, Chiefs and Ravens if you can believe it!
Guest
1:31
If I punt on WR first 2-3 rounds then hit those mid tier guys hard would you be comfortable with some combination of Thielen, Ridley, Metcalf, Hollywood, Chark, Laurin among others?
Bobby Sylvester
1:32
Absolutely! That is very much what I have in mind for the wideout position this year: Thielen, Ridley, Chark/McLaurin would have me feeling great as my top 3 wideouts because that also means I have two stud RBs at the top of my roster
Reefy_Reef
1:33
Hi! I’m am currently sitting on pick 6 for two leagues (10m and 12m) and can’t decide between Cooks, Henry. For my second pick, I’m hoping to land Drake or maybe Sanders if the Eagles don’t run RBBC.
Bobby Sylvester
1:34
I agree that Drake or Sanders is the call in round 2 and hope you can land one. Frankly, though, I prefer Joe Mixon over both Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. Cook has two repeat injuries to worry about and Henry sees virtually no work in the passing game--he will see significant TD regression this season and RBs with 400+ touches the previous year (including the playoffs) rarely stay healthy the following season.
CJ
1:35
I have a startup draft this Friday- 12 team 1 QB PPR and I have the ninth pick (so my second pick will be 16th overall). Do you think getting Nick Chubb and Kenyan Drake in rounds one and two would be a good start or should I target other guys?
Bobby Sylvester
1:37
Pick #9 is a GREAT spot to be IMO. You will almost definitely have a chance at Mixon, Henry or Cook (and that's the order I'd take them in). I understand the upside with Chubb but from the time Kareem Hunt came back, Chubb was merely RB15 so I'm a little worried about him. In fact, I'd take Kenyan Drake (and Miles Sanders) over him and you should be able to nab one with your second pick. Joe Mixon and Kenyan Drake is a dream start IMO
Buddy
1:37
DYNASTY - Can you foresee Cam lasting the season after Belichik milks every drop out of him? Assuming he beats out Stidham. Who feels like he does have value even if he loses the starting job. Therefore is he (Stidham) worth holding on a 20 man season roster? Thank you & stay safe.
Bobby Sylvester
1:39
I'd draft Stidham now just at the chance he IS the starter---Don't forget Matt Cassel, Jimmy G and Jacoby Brissett combined for better numbers per game as Patriots starters than Deshaun Watson last season! Stidham just so happened to be the best QB in the entire NFL preseason last year. But if Newton is named the starter, I'd cut him. Yeah, Cam is more likely to get injured than most QBs but in a single QB league, I wouldn't roster a backup QB---Jalen Hurd might be the only exception
Mike from NJ
1:40
Are there any viable WR2/3 candidates from the NY Giants receiving group?  Which WR(s) would you draft from that group, if any.
Bobby Sylvester
1:42
Every one of them has a chance to be a WR2 with Slayton probably offering the best ceiling, but I won't have any shares of Tate, Slayton or Shepard. There are higher upside in that range like Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins, DeSean Jackson, Breshad Perriman and safer floor wideouts like Jamison Crowder, Henry Ruggs and Mike Williams
Guest
1:43
Based on current auction values ($200 budget PPR) and standard starting FF lineups, what is your ideal roster?
Also, you guys use the term ‘positive regression’. Very confusing. Isn’t that the same thing as ‘progression’?
Bobby Sylvester
1:45
Regression does not imply moving backwards--regression means moving towards the mean. And in fantasy football terms, the mean can be above or below what a player did in a given season. For instance, through 8 seasons, Matt Ryan was consistently putting up 3.5 to 4.5% TD-rates although he performed like someone who should put up 5 to 5.5%. Low and behold, positive regression set in and he jumped to 7.1% the following season, winning the MVP. Aaron Rodgers, for instance, is due for significant positive regression in the TD department this year.

Now the first part of the question.....
1:47
Assuming half-PPR, single QB:

Tyrod

Mixon, Drake, Sanders

Beckham, Ridley, A Green, B Cooks

T Higbee

J Dobbins, L Murray, T Pollard, A Mattison, D Harris, S Watkins

Eagles DST
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