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FantasyPros Fantasy Baseball Chat (6/3)
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Bobby Sylvester
2:00
Hey, everyone. I'm Bobby Sylvester, host of the FantasyPros Baseball Podcast. I'll be taking all of your questions for the next hour. Let's do it!
George S.
2:00
I love your fantasy baseball strategy articles (Marmol, etc). Do you foresee any new strategies that are going to come out around the shortened season?
Bobby Sylvester
2:03
Thanks for saying that, George--I hope they have helped you in the past. All three of those pieces are based on punting a category or two that don't heavily correlate to other categories (BA doesn't correlate to HR/RBI/R/SB, ERA/WHIP don't correlate especially high to K, SV and even wins, K/W don't correlate especially high to ERA/WHIP/Sv). And the shortened season doesn't change any of that or make new categories more puntable. If anything, though, the Bichette Strategy and Marmol Strategy make more sense than ever since you can easily get quality SPs later with no innings limits
James
2:05
Who are some of your favorite late-round targets at SP?
Bobby Sylvester
2:08
It depends on what you mean by late round so I'll give you a few ranges:

ADP 200-250: A.J. Puk, Josh James, Dylan Bundy
ADP 250-300: Brendan McKay, Freddy Peralta
ADP 300-400: RICH HILL, Garrett Richards, John Means, Josh Lindblom
ADP 400+: Elieser Hernandez, Alex Reyes, Daniel Norris
Jc1988
2:09
Do you think it makes sense to avoid pitchers early, more or less, and focus on offense given the expected landscape with the shortened season?
Bobby Sylvester
2:11
100% and the reason is that the elite pitchers are set even further apart by their durability to pitch 190+ innings. With there being no pitch limits in a shortened season, it only comes down to efficiency which makes mid-late round guys like Jesus Luzardo, Kenta Maeda, Julio Urias, Lance McCullers, Rich Hill and Brandon McKay second-tier fantasy SPs because inning for inning, they are about as good as it gets. Knowing you can wait on players like that removes the elite SP's above replacement value
Steven h
2:13
In a 12 team points league, I offered JD Martinez, Cavin Biggio, Ramon Laureano and Brandon Workman for Christian Yelich. What are your thoughts on that trade offer?
Bobby Sylvester
2:14
I love the offer. In terms of z-points (sum of standard deviations expected above replacement for all categories), Yelich is about 9 which is ridiculous. The other four combined don't match him
Rich
2:15
Thanks for chatting.  In my12-team H2H league with OBP instead of AVG, Rougned Odor Alex Verdugo, and Willie Calhoun are all free agents.  Should I drop Brian Anderson, Ryan Braun, C.J. Cron, or Wil Myers for any of them?  Odor is an OBP-killer, Verdugo is recovering from a stress fracture in his back, and Calhoun's half-season power outburst last year wasn't really supported by his Statcast data (.524 SLG, .452 xSLG).  Braun and Myers are power-speed threats who should get plenty of ABs with a universal DH, Anderson is a solid hitter with some speed batting in the middle of an improved Marlins lineup, and Cron hits the bejeezus out of the ball (95th percentile in barrel rate, 91st percentile in xSLG).  Thoughts?
Bobby Sylvester
2:19
I'd drop Brian Anderson for any of the three. This is how I'd rank everyone you listed:

Odor > Calhoun > Braun > Verdugo > Cron > Myers > Anderson.
Red
2:19
Thank you for these chats. Starlin Castro, are you a believer after pick 225 in a 12 team roto league?
Bobby Sylvester
2:20
I'm a major major believer in grabbing Castro late. In fact, he is my 2nd basemen in 4 out of 5 drafted leagues so far. Was a top 15 fantasy 2B last season and is going around 2B #25 right now despite moving into a much better ballpark and much better lineup.
Serena
2:20
Franchy, Franchy, Franchy...the monster arrives in 2020!
Bobby Sylvester
2:22
Franchy Cordero has the upside to break out into a 30/20 player---not sure the BA ever comes and it remains to be seen whether he will play even 50% of the time even with the DH added, but he has a chance to be another version of (the formerly good) Wil Myers.
SH
2:22
Ina 12 team points league, I traded Rafael Devers, Hector Neris, and Alex Verdugo for Nolan Arrenado. What are your thoughts on the trade?
Bobby Sylvester
2:25
I personally wouldn't have done it, as Devers was the #1 fantasy third basemen last year (over Arenado) as just a 22 year old and now Arenado might get traded away from Coors. I know I'm the high-man on Devers, though, for what it's worth.
Marty
2:25
Diego Castillo or Corbin Burnes as middle relief dart throw?
Bobby Sylvester
2:25
Between the two, I prefer Castillo because he has a chance to close for Tampa. But I'd rather just pick up Jordan Hicks who has legitimate top 5 RP upside if the season doesn't start until mid-July
Rocky
2:27
G'day mate! 14-team mixed roto keeper league. Trade query. My JT Realmuto with 2yr contract for his Jesus Luzardo with 3yr contract and Gavin Lux with 3yr contract. I'm not rebuilding and trying to win this year and every year, but I shouldn't pass up the value, right? Please advise. Thanks.
Bobby Sylvester
2:28
You nailed it--even without rebuilding, that trade offer is just too dang good to pass up. I'd do is even in a redraft league but add the extra year for both Luzardo and Lux and it is even better. Nice move, Rocky!
Chuck
2:28
Seems like I'm considering three different Marlins to grab off the waiver wire and add to my bench. Pablo Lopez, Isan Diaz, or Elieser Hernandez. Who do you favor if stashing in reserve?
Bobby Sylvester
2:30
Among the three, Diaz has the most upside---wouldn't surprise me if he absolutely mashes....but Elieser is my pick for sure. If he makes the rotation, he will be a top 50 SP, no doubt about it. His underlying metrics last year indicate major positive regression, plus he was the 3rd best starting pitcher in the minors last year (Gore and McKay)
Johan
2:30
It must suck being Nate Lowe, eh? What's a dude gotta do to get some respect and regular playing time? Rays hindering his development not aiding it.
Bobby Sylvester
2:31
It is amazing, isn't it? I'd wager he will be in a straight platoon with Jose Martinez this year. Lowe destroys righties but can't hit lefties especially well. Martinez is one of the best LHP mashers in the majors over the past few seasons. Sucks, but smart for the Rays
Henry
2:31
2020 NL Cy Young - Mr. Dinelson Lamet! It's all coming together in this truncated season, including his mysterious "third" pitch...shhhhhhh.
Bobby Sylvester
2:31
Yeah, baby!!!! You know what's up! It's about to go down!
Joba
2:31
Damn Midgies! Better Cleveland OF'er in 2020...Reyes or Mercado? Roto. Will one or both finish in Top 100?
Bobby Sylvester
2:33
Through 7 seasons in the minors, Mercado his .254/.321/.357/.678. That is not someone I want to trust with my 9th round pick after 115 decent games. We've seen players like this get hot for a stretch time and time again and they go overdrafted only to bust and even lose their job as sophomores. Hard pass on Mercado, hard pass on Edman, hard pass on Will Smith. Give me Franmil Reyes all day, though.
Clarence
2:34
Is Adalberto Mondesi worthy a top-20 pick in a severely shortened season?
Bobby Sylvester
2:35
I haven't changed my hitter rankings much at all besides accounting for injured players now being healthy (Yordan Alvarez, Giancarlo Stanton, Willie Calhoun) and DHs being added (Dylan Carlson, Ryan Braun, Nick Senzel, Austin Riley). Mondesi's value above replacement for each stat category will remain the same, just at a smaller and thus more volatile sample-size
Big Monch
2:35
Where's the love for Brendan McKay? (I know you love him, but it seems like the industry is split on him.) He had typical first-year issues but has wipeout K potential and is going in the back end of most drafts!
Bobby Sylvester
2:37
I can't ever understand it on players like this. Everyone was wayyy too low on Chris Paddack last year, Jack Flaherty the year before and Walker Buehler a year prior. I'll draft these guys two rounds ahead of ADP every single year without exception. He was ridiculous last year and now that McKay has had time to recover from (I believe a neck injury), he should be in the rotation on Opening Day. After all, it isn't like they can send him down the minors, right?
Big Monch
2:39
Which players will you have the most shares of this year?
Bobby Sylvester
2:41
1) Avisail Garcia
2) Rich Hill
3) Brendan McKay
4) Starlin Castro
5) Keona Kela
6) Corey Kluber
7) Marcus Semien
8) Julio Urias
9) Tyler Glasnow
10) Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
fred
2:42
no question I just don't understand why people are still low on astros come on people they can still hit even without the trash cans help!
Bobby Sylvester
2:44
We have data on what the players accomplished during trash can at bats and what they accomplished without the trash cans. The production was near-identical. People are just going off one sample-size from the Kershaw game and assuming it applies throughout the season. Nope. These were almost all top 20 prospects and it wouldn't shock anyone if Springer, Yordan, Correa, Altuve or Bregman won the MVP this year. The team is amazing regardless
Dan Phalange
2:44
Which site tools do you use most often when getting ready for your drafts?
Bobby Sylvester
2:45
Definitely Draft Wizard. I probably complete 150 mocks before my draft day every year.
Rexxxxxxx
2:45
how do you even prepare for a season with 50 games?????????? starters only get 10 starts, no minors, universal DH, and you might have one guy with 10 saves. help!!!!!!!!!
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