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FantasyPros Fantasy Baseball Chat (3/25)
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Dan Harris
12:05
Hey guys. Bobby will be here in a minute. Just some technical difficulties. Hang tight.
Bobby Sylvester
12:07
Hey everyone! I'm Bobby Sylvester of the FantasyPros Baseball Podcast. I'll be answering as many fantasy baseball questions today as I can over the next hour. Wouldn't be disappointed if a football, food or march madness question slipped in either. Let's do this!
Libby
12:08
Who is your favorite guest to have on the fantasy baseball podcast?
Bobby Sylvester
12:09
There are a ton of guests that are a blast to have on, but my favorites are definitely Dan Harris and Joe Pisapia. I'm sure it comes through in the recording that we just have so much fun when we talk to one another. Paul Sporer is another that I could just talk baseball with all day every day if we shared an office together. Love those guys!
Jackson
12:09
If there was one player you thought had the best chance to drastically outperform his ADP, who would it be?
Bobby Sylvester
12:10
Everyone knows I'm going to say this, but it's Avisail Garcia. He going in the 21st round and I truly think he will finish the season as a top 100 fantasy player batting .300 with 25 homers, 12 steals, 90 runs, 80 RBIs (if we play into December for a full season)
Ethan
12:10
How high would you take Judge/Stanton/et cetera now that the season is postponed and they may be back for opening day?
Bobby Sylvester
12:12
It sounds like both are going to be ready to roll by mid-June opening day (if reports are accurate) so let's go back to 6 weeks ago when both were healthy. Judge was a mid-3rd round ADP and Stanton mid-5th round. I'd take Stanton right after Yordan Alvarez, Clayton Kershaw, George Springer and Adalberto Mondesi come off the board (so around pick 35-45). I'll definitely have shares of him. I actually trust his health more than Judge's and think Stanton is the better player so I won't have shares of Judge unless he falls into the late 4th
Thomas
12:13
How would a condensed schedule impact the value of certain categories? Do steals/saves become more or less valuable?
Bobby Sylvester
12:14
It should be the same, although closers are less likely to lose their job in a shortened season so I'd now take a Ken Giles, Hector Neris or Nick Anderson in the 10th/11th/12th rather than waiting 6 more rounds for a Keone Kela
Mikey
12:14
Bobby, I've seen your strategy articles on Marmol, Pocket Rockets... do you always try to use the Marmol strategy if possible?
Bobby Sylvester
12:14
If my league allows for Marmol, I'll lock it in 100% of the time. Think of it this way: if the government allows you to get a tax refund, are you going to cash that check? Yup. Same thing. Free money, free trophy.
Chris
12:15
Already drafted...I took syndergard as my sp1 what waiver wire move should I be focused on
Bobby Sylvester
12:16
RICH HILL! From my Featured Pros bit this morning (maybe to be published in a few minutes): Rich Hill moved from undraftable to one of my foremost targets with the news of the season being pushed back. There are many others, primarily injured played (Clevinger, Verlander, Yordan, Calhoun) and pitchers with innings limits (Urias, McCullers, Luzardo, Ryu) but Hill still takes the cake. He should now be ready to roll on opening day and has quite literally been one of the best pitchers inning for inning over the last five years. Since he took over as a starter, he carries a 2.91 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and strikes out 10.7 per nine innings. I'd grab Hill in the 21st round (right after I take Avisail Garcia) just to be safe and ensure I land him.
Aspiring Hunk
12:16
How does one become a "hunk"?
Bobby Sylvester
12:18
This is, of course, one of the most important questions in life. But so many people approach it the wrong way. It isn't about doing hunky things (world records, trips to brazilian steakhouses, 10-consecutive mock draft victories over Mike Tagliere); it's about feeling hunky in your heart. Once you can do that, the world records and such will come naturally.
Pedro
12:18
At their current ADP who would you rather buy: Luis Robert or Kyle Tucker? Additionally who has the better long-term upside?
Bobby Sylvester
12:19
You found two players I have a soft spot for. But this is from my featured pros hit this morning: "I hate to say this but I'm not reaching for Kyle Tucker anymore like I was doing a few weeks ago. He is a classic five-tool player with 30/30 potential even as a rookie but without Spring Training to win the job over Josh Reddick, it seems likely that he won't even open the season on the MLB roster. Now, he'll be up sooner than later, but in a shortened season, he goes from probably playing 85% of the year to maybe 50% of the year. I can't afford to draft a player like that in the 12th round any longer." As for Robert, well, let's just say that if I had to take him in the 5th round, I would without hesitation, so you'd better believe I'm reaching into the 7th, two rounds ahead of his ADP for this 30/30 league-winner.
Sid Bream
12:19
My league settings allow me to not roster a catcher, I have been leaving that spot open and using it for pitchers and other players. No one else in my leagues does this, am I a cheater?
Bobby Sylvester
12:20
Not so whatsoever. You are a winner. They can change the rules if they want in the offseason, but for now, you've got to do what you legally can in order to win.
Joe
12:20
I have Nomar Mazara on my bench in my one league, but super upside pitchers are available on waivers like Nate Pierson and Civale would you grab and stash those guys on your bench instead?
Bobby Sylvester
12:21
I love Pearson (not Civale so much) but Mazara >>>> Pearson in my mind. Could hit 35 homers this year with a solid batting average. Huge upside and reliable 5th OF floor
Juan
12:21
Swap Tatis and Harper for Trout and Mondesi??
Bobby Sylvester
12:21
OH MANNNN! You gotta that one. I prefer Mondesi over Tatis and obviously Trout >>> Harper. Great trade!
Tim
12:23
How much do you let your "gut feeling" or factors other than pure projections or statcast data, etc., factor into your rankings?
Bobby Sylvester
12:25
I'm a slave to data. However, I think what most people call a gut feeling is more along the lines of a subliminal awareness of some sort of data. Perhaps they don't know how to quantify it so rather, they just call it a gut feeling. No, it's brain recognition and yes, I use it.
Trudeau
12:25
How do you evaluate players who should be way past the point of decline? Like I get that Nelson Cruz is just getting better but at some point he's just going to fall off a cliff, no?
Bobby Sylvester
12:26
This is a good question and is absolutely factored into my rankings. If there was not additional risk of an old dude like Cruz falling off, I'd be drafting him in the top 30. He has been a top 30 player for a long time. His consensus ADP, of course, is #81 overall, though. That's too low. We are still getting a strong value in the 7th or even 6th round.
Peter
12:28
With the injuries to Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander, etc., do you think people should go heavier on starting pitcher early because there are so few healthy and elite options, or wait because, you know, ALL PITCHERS GET INJURED???
Bobby Sylvester
12:31
Yes and no. This is why I do the Marmol Strategy when I can. Pitchers are not only injury prone but they are highly volatile too. I would prefer to not take any chances and just avoid drafting a single pitcher until the 11th or 12th round if my league settings allow for Marmol. In a league where I can't use Marmol, however, I'm grabbing deGrom at #7 (Bellinger 4, Soto 5, Betts 6, Cole 8), or Scherzer as early as #12 (Turner 9, Lindor 10, Story 11). After that, though, there is a huge drop-off as I have Verlander/Strasburg/Buehler as the next tier in round 3 followed by targets of Kershaw, Glasnow, Bauer, Kluber. If I can get 3 of those 10 pitchers, I feel good about my team
Carlos D.
12:32
I miss Baseball........
Bobby Sylvester
12:32
OTTP, my friend. Out of the Park Baseball will serve as a temporal remedy. Get lost in it!
Guest
12:32
Who is going to have a bigger impact Avisail Garcia or Gregory Polanco?
Bobby Sylvester
12:33
I like Polanco this year, but I believe Garcia will outproduce him in all five categories. He is my #1 target at ADP this season
Alex
12:33
Do you think Kyle Tucker will get an everyday role in Houston?
Bobby Sylvester
12:34
I wish the answer was yes, but Dusty Baker is in charge. So the answer is no. It won't happen until a month into the season most likely. If the season is shortened, he goes from 80% of the at-bats to maybe 60%. Not great, but still league-winning upside if someone ahead of him gets injured.
Dre Solver
12:34
hey bobby- absolutely love the pods and your personal cheat sheet/rankings is one of my go to resources. I feel like there are so many obvious targets between 100 and 150- given that you can't have them all in a 12 team league, how in the world do you decide between these upside guys: Gallen, Lamet, Franmil, Montas, Luzardo, Khris Davis, Kyle Tucker? Is there any hierarchy here?
Bobby Sylvester
12:37
It is so frustrating, isn't it? Because there is a dead-zone just ahead of them. I've been drafting Semien in the 7th, Robert in the 8th, Kluber in the 9th to tide me over into this tier. Of this group, I now prefer Luzardo the most because an innings limit won't damper his final numbers as much in a shortened season. I lean away from the outfielders just because you can get Avisail Garcia, Corey Dickerson, etc so late. There is a huge drop-off in starting pitchers after round 15 (the tier ends with some of my favorite targets: D Price, Maeda, C Martinez, Urias, McCullers, Weaver). Gobble those SPs up before they are all gone and it gets ugly.
Yu
12:37
Name some SPs that are better in quality starts leagues than wins leagues.
Bobby Sylvester
12:40
Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Marco Gonzalez, Jeff Samardzija, Matthew Boyd, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner
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