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Fantasy Baseball Chat with Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
12:52
We have a decent-sized queue, and I'm here. So let's start a little early.
Guest
12:52
Thanks for these chats.  So…most news in the first month of the season is short-sample noise.  Other than lineup changes and injury news, what items *are* worth paying attention to in April?
Brad Johnson
12:55
I wrote about several items in today's fantasy newsletter. In brief, max EVs, pitcher velo/pitch mixes, reliever usage, and lineup slots can all be helpful this time of year.
GBS42
12:55
Brad, thanks for these weekly chats.  How would you rank these relievers in a SV+HD league: Kyle Finnegan, Michael Fulmer, Andrew Chafin?  Chafin getting a save and win on my bench in the short first week was a bit chafin'.
Brad Johnson
12:56
You've got the order I would set. Basically the same asset class though. These are all the type of relievers who project to be above average but only need a couple things to go against them in order to deliver below average results.
Jack
12:56
Interesting that Will Smith got first Save opportunity for TX. Think Bochy will mix it up with LeClerc? There was some speculation that he'd do this, based on experience with Smith in SF.
Brad Johnson
12:57
I do think this will be a committee early on, with a lean towards Smith if he's dealing.
Just for fun
12:57
Baseball is by far my favorite sport. I am not a fan of fantasy baseball. Make a case for why fantasy baseball is worth playing. (This is not meant to come off as rude in any way)
Brad Johnson
12:58
If you're not a fan of fantasy, the format probably isn't for you. Or you at least need a good friend group with whom to play.
12:59
Speaking broadly, I think most of us enjoy fantasy because it lets us experience the game in a more first-hand manner. We get a modicum of control over what's happening. Not everybody is happy with only spectating.
1:00
Personally, I'd be happiest if I could play baseball every day. My body barely handles once a week these days so fantasy is my secondary outlet. Watching the games is third-string for me. I watch more clips than games these days.
Dano
1:00
Are you aware of anyone doing anything on the history of fantasy baseball?  I think it would be a good subject for a book or article.  My league just had our 40th annual draft last week, which I think has to be up there as one of the oldest leagues going.  Are the original Rotisserie League guys still playing?
Brad Johnson
1:03
I'm "aware" of some stuff, such as a documentary on the original league, but I don't recall the details. I can reach out to Nick Fleder and ask about the league. He's the son of one of the original league members.
Gmail says I haven't contacted Nick since 2012!
Jeremy
1:03
We have a slow draft for our minor league systems in a dynasty league right now, and we are nearing the ends. I have 2 picks coming back-to-back now, who of this group do you think will be the best in the long-term: Chase DeLauter, Christian Hernandez, Everson Pereira, Drew Gilbert, Asa Lacy, Gunner Hoglund. Thanks!
Brad Johnson
1:06
From that group, I probably like DeLauter and Hoglund most. Tell me, has Felnin Celestin been picked? He's an early candidate for a big breakout season. River Ryan is another sleeper option. 4+ pitches per KLaw and in the magic Dodgers system
Brad
1:06
24 team dynasty...is it time to give up in Joey Bart?
1:07
24 team dynasty...time to give up on Cole Winn?
Brad Johnson
1:07
I think I'd give Winn a little longer.
1:08
He has the pitches, just isn't finding the results. Some pitchers take time. Looks like his command has backed up a bit since 2021.
1:09
As for Bart, I really don't see him as a starter. You should be able to find a trade for him in a league that deep. He's another guy you * could * give another half season to see if he figures it out.
I doubt you'd get any offers for Winn.
Gunnar Henderson
1:10
What are realistic expectations from me this year?
Brad Johnson
1:11
When y'all ask for "realistic" expectations, you're asking me to disappoint you. When most analysts talk about their expectations, they're quoting 75th percentile outcomes (i.e. this is what the guy might do if he's better than we think he is).
1:12
In any event, something like 15-20 HR, 10-15 SB, 165 R+RBI, and a .250 AVG/.350 OBP.
RAGBRAI
1:12
I picked up B Johnson in SF to replace Grichuk. What can I expect from him this year?  Will be be up and down from AAA? Does he have long term value?
Brad Johnson
1:13
Honestly, he wasn't really on my radar for MLB reps. My notes are shallow. Likes to run, not much of a bat to support the speed.
He's a tad overdisciplined for a low-impact hitter. It's a Triple-A skill set.
Clarence Odbody
1:14
Thanks as always, Brad.  I integrate your comments into my prep extensively.   So... I am in two leagues, but for one of them (a 14-team draft mixed league), I had a family emergency and had to turn on the auto-draft before it started.  Since it wasn't planned, I had no chance to order the players, so of course, I ended up with a lot of big names who are hurt (see: Bryce Harper as ONE example) and a bunch of mediocre scrubs.  So, I have to build a team via the waiver wire and trades.  Focusing on the former, anyone you have fallen in love with in the last week who probably wasn't in the top 300 ADP that you'd use a building block of a horrible team!
Brad Johnson
1:15
I hate to disappoint, but I haven't identified any standouts yet. I've been working a lot harder on the prospect front this season (doing some rebuilding, and I have the Big Hype Prospects column).
1:18
Some names I like outside the NFBC Top 300: Taijuan Walker, Civale, Grisham, Carlson (part-timer currently), Reynaldo Lopez, Kepler, Gallo, Kirilloff, Puk, Garver, Enrique Hernandez, Alek Thomas, and Brice Turang
Dodger outfield mix
1:18
Do you think Tracye Thompson will get 20 HRs this year?
Brad Johnson
1:18
Yes
Might come with 35% Ks, but he's a big HR threat.
Waldi-chuck?
1:18
Already a little worried about my Waldichuck AL Only buy. Do any of these FAAB arms spark joy, or am I going to be streaming? Tyler Wells, D. German, Kikuchi, Turnbull, Muller, Kremer, Clevinger, Wentz? (Sorry for the bevy of names!)
Brad Johnson
1:19
Clevinger looked like his old self if the DV allegations don't bother you.
MikeD
1:19
Clay Holmes has great stuff, but I’m not convinced he can hold the closer’s role. They seem to want King as a multi-inning option. Does Marinaccio have a shot to assume the role? I’m looking for saves in my league from the current second-tier guys who have a chance to become first tier.
Brad Johnson
1:20
He has a shot, but I don't see him as on the same level as Holmes/Loaisiga/King. I think last year was just about as good as it gets for Marinaccio. Regression seems inevitable. I view him as a 3.50-4.00 ERA guy. Perfectly serviceable but not an ideal high leverage guy.
GBS42
1:21
NL-only 3B options: Jeimer Candelario or Brian Anderson?  I also have Edmundo Sosa but see him as the clear third option unless an injury opens up more PT.
Brad Johnson
1:23
They project pretty similarly. The Nats will probably use Jeimer indiscriminately, but they also won't instruct him. The Brewers have a knack for getting the most out of their low-cost additions so they probably had some ideas about making Anderson a better player. He'll also be used when most effective which should improve his rates at the expense of volume.
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