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FanGraphs Red Sox/Astros ALCS Game 3 Chat
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AvatarDan Szymborski
8:01
Good evening!
For a day of events of a baseball nature.
Well an evening
Guest
8:03
How can hundreds of Fenway seats be unsold?
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:03
Dunno, price?
How many are unsold?
Joey Wheeler
8:03
Any thoughts on Siri?
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:03
Weirdly interesting now.
8:04
He's one player whose ZiPS I'm really fascinated into digging into; I don't have final minor league translations fully done yet
Guest
8:04
Who’s going to score the most runs?
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:04
The winner, silly!
Big Hairy Clock
8:04
Only the somewhat cold temperatures tonight have me thinking this won’t be a 12-9 type of slugfest.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:04
Baseball is happy to overthrow any logic and reasoning at the drop of a cap!
Lzfreak
8:04
Over/under 4 hours for this game?
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:05
I'll say over.
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:05
hey hey, folks!
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:05
Hey Jay!
Guest
8:05
Is there a useful rule of thumb e.g. for every 5 degrees of temperature, runs per game go down by X?
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:05
i'd like to believe that just once the Red Sox can play a game at Fenway that doesn't last 4 hours.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:05
Not really
8:06
I mean, there's a relationship
But the numbers aren't that neat and the variance is crazy
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:07
lower temperatures mean less carry for the ball, which can cut into homers of course
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:07
Using same teams, it's like 0.5 r/g/team between the coldest and the hottest games
tamuaggiedude
8:08
Will Urquidy get more that 12 outs, please say yes.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:08
I'll say over.
8:09
Only because if he's pitching well, I think the Astros might push him a few more batters than they would otherwise
Bill
8:09
Loved the article today, Jay, about declining IP. Is the data easily accessible from somewhere? What I'm curious about is the shape of those average IP values by year, so I was thinking about whipping up some histograms.
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:10
Thanks. Sadly, it's a grind to compile the data; I use Stathead and then piece it together. This time I'm actually going to save my spreadsheet with an easily recognizable title so when I revisit this stuff next year i don't have to reinvent the wheel, though.
But yes, histograms would be interesting, I think.
Jason
8:11
How does ZiPS incorporate postseason stats? Like for instance what is the degree of impact Logan Webb’s two postseason starts will have? Like two additional regular season starts or due to it being the postseason would it be more heavily weighted due to importance of the game and quality of opponent?
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:11
I haven't found weighting them differently to be needed. More important in this context is more philosophical than predictive
I cram it down to a per 162 game context
Italian beef w/ giardiniera
8:11
Best singular jersey left in the playoffs? I'll go Dodgers home
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:12
80s astros!
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:12
it ain't these red Red Sox jerseys
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:12
I actually don't mind these
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:12
I'm all for the Dodgers' home jersey as the single best in the sport
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:12
Though Red Sox classic is better
AvatarJay Jaffe
8:12
the Red Sox regular home jersey is much nicer
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