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NL Wild Card Chat
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Craig Edwards
7:33
Hello All. Welcome to playoff baseball. The queue is now open. Here are a few links you might find handy tonight and during the playoffs.
7:35
Live Scoreboard with in-game probabilities: https://www.fangraphs.com/livescoreboard.aspx?date=2019-10-01
7:36
Playoff Odds: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds Dan also came up with some ZiPS playoff odds you can get to from that page.
Who are you rooting for?
Brewers (49.5% | 52 votes)
 
Nationals (50.5% | 53 votes)
 
Total Votes: 105
7:37
Who do you think will win?
Brewers (23.3% | 24 votes)
 
Nationals (76.7% | 79 votes)
 
Total Votes: 103
7:38
With that, we'll let the queue fill up a bit and Dan Syzmborksi, Tony Wolfe, and myself will start taking questions shortly.
Ryan
8:06
Two innings from Scherzer; three innings from Strasburg; and they're ready to go for games 1 and 2 of the NLDS.  Would you endorse this plan for the Nats?
Craig Edwards
8:07
Interesting idea, but more important just to win this game. That probably requires more than five innings from Scherzer and Strasburg combined. Just let Scherzer go until he is about to lose it. In game, when to pull your ace is a really tough choice made tougher by Scherzer's recent injury history.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:08
You don't want to burn out guys you need later, but you definitely don't want to go TOO deep into the Nats bullpen.
Stagger Lee
8:08
Why do Brewers fans act like Yelich has passed away and is that a justifiable reason to root for them tonight?
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:09
"Let's do it 50% for Yeli and then 50% for ourselves!" isn't quite as inspiring.
Wayne
8:09
Pitchers likely to throw tonight & their ERA-/FIP- since August 1st...

Scherzer 106/83
Strasburg 76/87
Corbin 73/92
Hudson 32/78

Woodruff 0/10
Suter 11/54
Pomeranz 54/60
Lyles 57/102
Hader 77/82
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:11
Well, Scherzer has velocity!
Alex
8:11
What's your best guess on what happens to Callaway and Kapler in the coming days? Seems like the more time this stalls, the better it is for them...
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:11
I bet Kapler stays, Callaway goes.
And: hello everyone!
Craig Edwards
8:11
Losing Yelich makes the Brewers more of an underdog and lots of people like to root for the underdog. I don't think it's that irrationals in terms of reasons to cheer for a team.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:12
I could've sworn that was going to be down in the corner.
Tony Wolfe
8:12
I was gonna say the opposite of Dan re: managers, but Callaway's weirdness with the media/FO certainly don't help his case.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:13
My feeling is that he's not the a guy BvW brought in, so there's less investment in there
Brother Ky
8:13
Where is Tony, I came here for Tony
Dylan R
8:13
What’s the chance the Brewers do the “pitch the starter for a single batter then switch to manipulate matchups” thing again?
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:14
I think it's a little too cute with the staff not as deep as last year
Craig Edwards
8:14
Only 23% of people thought the Brewers would win while roughly half were rooting for them. The win probability when factoring in talent level (the gray line) started at 64% and is already down to 45%.
Charles
8:14
Second year of the Brewers outperforming their Pythagorean record. Is it still too early to call it something other than an aberration or "luck" with sequencing, or there something to it? And if so what; can the very clear division in both usage and ability between the "when leading" and "when losing" groups in the bullpen be the whole reason?
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:15
The natural error is enought hat you can't really call it a skill
And there's very little long-term relationship between bullpen quality and pythag
Tony Wolfe
8:15
I think they let Woodruff go for a bit. He's been very, very good since coming back. Probably not longer than three innings, but I think he gets *some* rope.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:15
It's not as if Scherzer doesn't have his stuff
Thom
8:15
What's the likelihood of Washington using any pitcher other than Scherzer/Strasburg/Corbin?
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:15
Pretty high
Tony Wolfe
8:16
Doolittle, for one
Wayne
8:16
Brent Suter averged 16.5 seconds between pitches compared to an MLB average of 24.9 seconds. If every pitcher worked at Suter's pace the season would have been around 1,700 hours shorter, which works out to about 42 minutes per game. No question.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:16
I can only root for the Brewers when they're wearing the proper logo. I don't want to encourage them to use the M.
Craig Edwards
8:16
Keeping hitters in the box would help a lot, I think. I'm not sure Be More Like Brent is going to catch on.
Tony Wolfe
8:17
Well not with that slogan, at least
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:17
Those are the Brewers to pull for! One of the best logos in baseball history.
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