JotCast | FanGraphs 2022 Top 100 Prospects Chat

FanGraphs 2022 Top 100 Prospects Chat

Kevin Goldstein

1:00

Hi everyone. I'm here. Tess is here, Eric is here. We hope you've enjoyed Prospect Week and our Top 100 list. Thanks to Eric and Tess for all the work they put it, and thanks to behind the scenes folks on this like Meg Rowley's gigantic editing load, Sean Dolinar's crazy great tech work, and Luke Hooper's wonderful design work.

Eric A Longenhagen

1:00

Hello from Tempe and thanks for joining us

Kevin Goldstein

1:00

Anyway, let's chat!

Tess Taruskin

1:00

Hey everyone!

Guest

1:01

Luis Medina at 60 overall seems to suggest at least a reasonable chance of becoming a starter?

Kevin Goldstein

1:01

Reasonable chance, yes, but it's far from a guarantee . . . very far in fact. Stuff is fantastic.

Eric A Longenhagen

1:02

Also, it's clear in the post we have him evaluated as a reliever

i think elite relievers are very valuable

Jared

1:02

Any reservations on Kwan being so highly ranked? Seeing how he doesnt have much of a track record with the numbers he put up?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:03

Perhaps a tiny bit of reservation, in that there's a fair chance he's just a 45 instead of a 50, but what the heck are you talking about that there's no track record?

Kevin Goldstein

1:02

Really, no. The underlying metrics are so overwhelming that we actually ended up quite comfy with it.

TStats

1:02

where do you guys think MJ Melendez and Pratto Play with Slavy on C and Santana being paid to play 1st? Cycle DH, 1B, C, off?

Tess Taruskin

1:02

Melendez and Pratto both saw time out of their primary position this season (Melendez at 3B, Pratto in RF). Could mean the org is trying to find a way to get them up there before 1B/C are vacated.

1:03

Quick thoughts on Taj Bradley, and mostly what kept him off?

Kevin Goldstein

1:03

His pitch data is merely good. He did have some support from the industry, but not enough to get him over the top.

Eric A Longenhagen

1:03

yeah, mixed opinion, def close to the list

Scotty

1:03

Hey all, Triantos as 55 game power and 50 raw, how does that happen? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen

1:04

with so much contact that you outproduce your raw (how far hit ball) with game (how often hit ball far)

[plenty of big league examples, Altuve doesn't have 7 raw but he's had years of 7 gamne because of all the contact

Jack B

1:04

Love the estimated probability for each player. Is that new this year?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:04

nope, it's many years old

Matt

1:04

What happened to JJ Bleday? Was #35 last year and didn't even make this list

Kevin Goldstein

1:04

At some point, the hype and the draft slot and the Q factor has to turn into performance, and that just hasn't happened.

Eric A Longenhagen

1:05

just a 45 for me, is Bleday

based on the Fall League look

still valuable, corner platoon guy

Brian

1:05

How does Matt Allan's outlook change with the reports of a 2nd elbow surgery? Was he on the top 114 before?

Kevin Goldstein

1:05

He was, and it's a big reason he is no longer.

Eric A Longenhagen

1:05

timing of his surgery also bad

means missing most of '22

Arsene

1:07

Hi Guys, How far from top 100 list is M Brash? is his relief risk putting him away from the list? Thanks!

Kevin Goldstein

1:07

Lots of Matt Brash questions. He was on the list for a long time and definitely had some industry support, but it just wasn't enough in the end. Definitely on the just missed list.

Matt

1:08

Request: In the future, can the ETA be included in the blurbs? Sucks to read something intriguing and then have to scroll back to the top to get an idea of when they might get the call

Eric A Longenhagen

1:08

Noted, it seems to be the thing people care most about. ideally in the future we can do something like e2022, m2022, L2022 to be more specific about the ETA when we think it'll be within the year.

Matt

1:08

Any insights into Ty Madden or Sal Frelick? Usually 1st round picks tend to at least make the back end of the list

Kevin Goldstein

1:08

Not necessarily, that would mean 30 guys on the top 100. I said about 15 hours ago, "Should Sal Frelick be on this list?" So he's definitely just missed. I'm a huge Madden cheeseball, but he did fall for a reason. He could get there in the end.

David

1:09

Hunter Brown felt like someone last year that was going to pop more than he did. Is this fair

Kevin Goldstein

1:09

I think this is fair.

Eric A Longenhagen

1:10

We're taking the long view there

Eric A Longenhagen

1:11

coming out of wayne state, missed year w/ pandemic....lotta context backed into that FV