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FanGraphs 2021 Top 100 Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Good morning from Tempe. Thanks for coming to the chat and, I assume, checking out the Top 100. Let's get to your questions.
MB
12:03
Can you talk more about Ashby being the top Brewers prospect? Wasn't expecting that.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
Sure. Turang was a fairly late cut from the list. He and Ashby were very close on the ordinal rankings. I think Turang has a shot to be a 50 based on his glove and OBP skills, but I think there's real risk of him just getting blown away by velo at the top of the zone because of how deep those hands load, and that his "patience" my by passivity. So he fell out but you could argue him as a 50. Taylor Trammell same thing.
12:06
Garrett Mitchell still has his pre-draft 45+ FV grade. Basically he's Travis Swaggerty (speed, CF, raw power, not sure if he'll get to it in games) just several levels behind Swag.
12:07
Ashby was nasty in the Fall. If you put him in Milwaukee's bullpen tomorrow, I bet he'd be awesome in a leveraged role, and he has a long-term chance to start as a strikeout-heavy five and dive type
and I'll just take that guy rather than bet on Mitchell's swing changing
Scotty
12:07
Is the Cubs farm really that bad? 1 top 100 prospect?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
No, it's not bad. And there are three guys on there, two of them are barely south of 100 which, if you read the post, is basically the same as being 80th or whatever.
12:09
Their young dominican players are awesome. Kevin Made is really exciting. They're building a really fantastic group of young, up-the-middle guys who I like, they're just not up in this tier yet.
Dave
12:09
Do you think Miguel Amaya could be a league average C?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
Sure. He had been in the 50 FV tier for quite a while but lost a lot of steam on the list as I passed it around for feedback. Teams just don't think there's actually impact power there. I had a really hard time moving him off because I've been on him pretty heavy for so long, and his swing is sweet-looking, but it's definitely 4 bat speed.
Dave
12:12
How close was Ryan Pepiot to cracking this list?
Eric A Longenhagen
OC
12:12
Given the impact covid had on scouting/prospect development, I imagine there will be more pop-up prospects than usual this year: any suggestion on what league/level we should look for to best identify these guys?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
Because of how impactful just a few months of physical development can be for teenagers, the backfields will be the place to find guys who've changed a lot in the last year. But I also think there's the group of 23-year-old 2019 college draftees who would've gone out and performed and rocketed to Double-A in 2020 who we also don't know about yet, and deciding when to  buy into those guys as they do well at Hi-A or Double-A this year, but look older for the level on paper is going to be difficult.
Montreal Tampa Bay Rays
12:14
Im assuming Arozarena is number 4 because he’s established some at the major league level, not because he has this huge ceiling, right?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
No, I think there's real ceiling. What he did was amazing, if any of the hitters just behind him on the list came up and did what he did, I don't think we'd say "well, that's a nice safe big leaguer without a huge ceiling." We'd be going nuts.
Cashman
12:18
are the yankees system and prospects overrated when their system produced 2 above average players in 10 years judge and severino and they are always hurt
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
Nah. That's not exactly an easy lineup to crack, their system has enabled them to trade for a bunch of guys they have right now, and I think the Rule 5 results every year are an indication that this org has pitching depth other teams really want a piece of.
12:23
Cavalli will be on the Picks to Click as a guy KG and I expect to move into the 50 FV tier within the next year. Just want to see him hold the velo he showed in the short 2020 and refine his breaking stuff. I really like him. Rutledge is nasty, too, if you thought he belonged with Ashby and Canterino I'd buy that. Guys like him, Francisco Morales, and other guys with two 60+ pitches could fit toward the back of the hundred with other relief risk types, but I prioritized guys with 3 or 4 impact pitches rather than two.
George
12:23
Hey Eric, thank you so much for the list. What is keeping Cavalli and Rutledge out of the 50 FV tier for you? It's disheartening as a Nats fan to not have a single 50 FV so I was secretly holding out hope for them.
Charlie
12:24
Can you explain the relationship between tools and overall grade? Franco is an 80 yet only one 80 level tool (nothing else close to 80). Is there value in grading tools if there is such a difference between value and actual tools?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
A quick way of doing this is to say that: not all tools have the same level of importance (Franco's 80 is the most important tool) and defensive fit is a really important part of this. So if I have two hitters and their tools all grade exactly the same, but one plays shortstop and the other is a left fielder, there's a clear gap in value there, right? Even if the lF is a good defender and the SS can barely stay there, there's still a gap in value. But that's not illustrated in the tools.
Not Evan
12:27
Could you explain long and short levers? My fairly uninformed guess is that longer levers suggest more power but greater whiff risk, while shorter levers suggest a compact swing geared toward contact. Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
That's also my hypothesis and general industry thought, but I don't know. That's why I've started tracking it.
Guest
12:27
I noticed Issac Paredes isn't listed in the 50 FV prospects. Did he get bumped down in to the 45 FV tier?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
Yes. Love his feel for contact, just don't think there's real power there, and have concerns about his athletic longevity. All the big league 3B, especially the unathletic, porrer defenders, have more power than Paredes
Not Evan
12:29
Hey, Eric, thanks for the list! I'm not sure but I think the previously highest-ranked player to drop out of the 50FV tier is Taylor Trammell, who at one time was as high as #6 overall on your list. Could you talk a bit about what's up with him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
Just terrified that he can't hit velocity at all. I don't know if something about him changed or if we were just wrong when we stuffed him.
sam
12:31
Why so low on libatore? other people see him as becoming a #2 and in the top 60
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
I really don't want this to turn into me emphasizing what makes players less than perfect for an hour but...
12:32
As I wrote in his blurb, his fastball doesn't play like a plus fastball. A lot has been written about what helps/hurts fastball playability (spin axis and approach angle) and Libby doesn't have those things, and that also hurts how his curveball plays. I still like him as a four-pitch 50 which is really good.
Brad NJ
12:33
how much of Marsh's ranking is based on defense vs potential offensive output.  Most of us use these lists for fantasy baseball so we couldnt care less about defense...
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
It's a combo of both. His swing finally looked ready to produce in game power in Fall 2019. We haven't really seen him since then.
Darryl
12:34
I'll ask an obvious question, but can you list a couple guys who were late cuts from the back of the list? Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Turang, Paredes, Trammell, Ryan Vilade, Ryan Rolison (got unenthused fall reports on both), Amaya...erm...hold on there are couple more...
12:36
Dunning, and Luis Toribio
man, I love Toribio
Luis Medina, NYY
12:36
Chance Luis Medina ends up starting versus being a MIRP? Trending a certain way according to your sources? I take it the stuff so good, they rush him to the MIRP role and he never leaves it. Thanks.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
I think it's 50/50, and if he starts it probably looks a lot like Loaisiga, right? Huge stuff, three real weapons, but he's gotta grind through 5-6 innings due to command.
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