Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat - NCAA Regional Edition
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
Good morning from Tempe on a gorgeous Friday, I'm excited to overeat baseball today. I've got Squeeze Play on but the Kentucky/Wake game is the big one starting shortly, so if you have to pick one I suggest that.
YardGoat
12:05
Hey Eric, do you have a prediction for who makes it to Omaha?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Last week I mentioned Georgia Tech, UCLA, Auburn. Auburn's path was made easier by the way the brackets shook out. If I'm looking for a deeper seed to sneak in it's coming from the Chapel Hill and Lincoln regionals.
Justin Krupp
12:10
Have you seen Luis Hernandez in person this year or heard anything from scouts to lend context (good or bad) to what hes done so far this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
Yeah, like six times. I like him, I don't think he has the enormous physical tools of a guy who we eventually rank 3rd or anything like that. He's a skilled, smaller player who gets a lot out of his body because of how well he rotates.
12:13
Do they not have velos in Morgantown? Lemme crack the trackman real quick...
Kelly Clarkson
12:14
How real is Justin Lamkin? He pushing for a 50FV?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
My chest hair is so voluminous that people would jus yell "Ahhhhh Kelly Clarkson" at me in high school and college....
12:19
Lamkin sitting 92-94, maxed 94.7 this year, playing like a plus pitch, gyro slider 79-84, playing like a 70, has only thrown 40 changeups. Doesn't look like a 70 slider to me visually. Think juicing him into the 50s is a little rich for me off hand.
oaktownblues
12:19
Did you catch Jump's debut? Any thoughts?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
looked like Jump: big velo early, average velo late, scattered command for stretches, really nasty mix of breakers and a decent enough cambio. Mid rotation look on stuff, five and dive style likely due to walks
12:22
Jaxon Jelkin sitting 94-95 right now for Kentucky, 19 inches horizontal break. Really interesting physical package at a lanky 6-foot-6 or so, more a dev project than a finished one right now.
rossredcay
12:22
Were we a year early on Austin Overn?  Looks like he's getting to the pop more this year.  Are the Ks going to compromise the profile though?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
(not a great start for Kentucky)
12:26
Overn still looking like a 30 hit tool and the underlying power data isn't all that different than last year. Dangerous hitter middle-in, not so much when you locate away from him. Like the tools and thought he had more physical projection than most college hitters but I don't think he's big arrow up this year or anything.
not off hand, anyway
Charles Bengal Tiger
12:28
Liam Peterson of Florida ... I've seen some draft rankings and mocks that have him solidly in the top 10 and at least one other where he wasn't in the top 30. Why so much variance? If he makes the bigs will it be as a starter?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
Reasonable people could conclude he's going to be a reliever (due to delivery and command inconsistency) and therefore have him buried. Others might see one of the better four-pitch mixes in the draft and consider his issues at least semi-fixable with the right lower body conditioning. I'm more inclined toward the latter, give me the guy with monster stuff. First rounder.
12:33
Surprise! Two run homer for UIC, a guy with 4 homers entering the postseason lol.
Chris Levonas sitting 97 in Morgantown btw.
rossredcay
12:33
You referenced Elly the other week not necessarily as a direct comp, but I think as a body comp for Darrell Morel.  With that kind of lanky athlete, is this a guy we should expect to develop kind of slowly as he figures out how to control all of those arms and legs?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
Yes. Scary contact rate, pretty amazing defensive ability for a guy his size. Sitting here with a 40+ on him as I work the Pirates system.
Kade
12:34
Is there anything left for Kade Anderson to prove/work on in the minors or is he ready to just be up in the majors
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
I bet he'd be good if he got called up tomorrow.
Lars
12:34
What tools/traits do you prioritize more/less than other evaluators? Saw Keith Law put out an updated top 50 list and made me think about why his list might differ from yours and others.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
I like the good baseball players.
(I keed I keed)
12:37
For pitchers I care about durability and proximity a lot. For hitters I care about freaks. I don't necessarily think that's different than anyone else but those are things I care about. Sometimes that plays out nicely and I'm earlier on Elly, Basallo, Wood but also surfacing Bleis and Canario and Luciano too soon and dont care enough about Sal Stewart. Sometimes I'm properly positioned on Parker Messick a year early but too heavy on Curet.
RAH
12:37
Are surprised that Enddy Azocar was promoted to HiA already? Off to a good start (just a few games), but what would you be looking for to affirm the promotion and continue to grow his player eval?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
We stuffed him. Wanna see him hit stuff on the outer third. Grooved swing guy.
rossredcay
12:37
Robert Arias went down with a scary looking leg injury yesterday.  Any word on the specific injury / severity?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
I've go nothing a the moment and that's a tight lipped org. Once he goes on the IL there will need to be a listed reason and I can access it through sources more easily.
rossredcay
12:38
Josh Kuroda-Grauer hasn't slowed down a bit since getting bumped to AAA (though I guess that shouldn't be a surprise considering the environment).  Not sure if you have any EV data for him, but does he have the raw pop to make this new approach (which seems to be more lift / pull oriented) work in the majors?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
Fwiw, basically everyone's EV data is up. Lemme peek real quick.
12:43
His stuff is up some: hard hit rate up 7% points, which is a bigger gap than the minor league wide baseline (which is to be up 3 points), but his peak exits are not really up. there's way more pull/lift than last year which he hitting environment in Vegas/PCL will highlight a ton. Without going super deep to see if the swing is different, i looks on the spreadsheet like it might be. Great contact hitter, obvs.
jcfill
12:43
Joshua Baez is a hot name in social media prospect circles. Is the defense good enough to stick in CF? Any alleviation of concerns around higher zone velocity?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
I dont think he's going to hit
Tyler Banks
12:44
Which prospects are likely to make the biggest jumps on (or into) the top 100 at mid season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
River Ryan looks healthy and awesome and will leap into the top twenty or so
DR
12:45
This is more of a general question than a prospect-specific one. But looking at a guy like Braylin Tavera for example. He’s 21 (and will be for the whole season) and basically the age of any college 2026 draftee. While his stats aren’t crazy, he is hitting for a decent average, decent power, good defense. And he’s not worthy of a mention from nearly any prospect writer. Do international/high school guys sort of pay a ranking/status tax because their developmental years are in the pros rather than college?  I have to imagine that nearly any 2026 draft pick who put up numbers like Tavera would be referred to as either “holding his own” or “seamless transition” despite the K numbers.
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