Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Good morning everyone, hope you had a good week. I'm on the road looking for a reprieve from the heat, hoping that things have downshifted when I get back. The forecast doesn't look favorable for that. I'm in data-gathering mode, lining the coffers for offseason list-making. I have a rental car pickup in about 90 mins, so we're keeping things tight to the hour today. Let's get after it.
Charles Bengal Tiger
12:03
So, 47 HRs for Fischer. What does it really mean?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Because of how the bottom of the big league scale is shifting and evolving, I'm starting to come around on the idea that this will be good enough for Fischer to be a first division regular at first base...
Here is the bottom of the big league player pop in terms of contact rate:
Minimum 200 PA
12:08
Here's minimum 400 PA, these are players who've gotten enough run to feel better about the sample size and consider something more like a "regular" or "everyday player"
12:09
Fischer is a 62% contact rate guy in the minors. If he can sustain that as he's exposed to big league pitching, there is probably enough other stuff going on to make him an impactful 1B. Here are the data extremes of the other aspects of his skillset:
12:12
62% contact (only one regular, Murakami, worse than that), 112 max exit (plus, nothing crazy), 107 EV90 (would be top 40 in MLB), 58.5% hard hit (would rank first), average launch 28 degrees (easily the steepest in baseball, Ced Mullins leads MLB at 25.7 degrees) and it's all pulled in the air.
12:13
There are parts of this that make me think, "He's doing the things a guy needs to do to whiff this much and still be good" and there's part of me that worries there's basically no precedent for this type of guy.
Visually, his hand speed is electric.
12:14
I think it's fair to conclude he's going to K a ton and that he might have stretches where things look pretty bad
But he's doing the other stuff well enough to determine he'll have a positive overall impact, I don't think he's a bust or anything.
Kervin
12:14
Do you think teams are/will hold back some promotions this September so that they will still be able to work with those prospects next year if there is a lengthy lockout?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
Yes, I think there will be some guys left off 40-man rosters this offseason for this reason, too.
willt
12:14
You mentioned going to the Chandler HS FB game a couple weeks ago, how was Mencl?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
First half of the game was awesome, second half was kind of a dud. Mencl is tall and can sling it, no idea how it'll translate to college. I wasn't like "OMG, this kid is way better than everyone else."
12:17
Chandler has a DL named Jaxon Zembrycki who I can't believe is only committed to NAU
pmaguran
12:17
A different prospect writer raised some conditioning / physical concerns about Zhyir Hope.  Anything you’ve heard on this?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
You can say it was Keith, it's okay. Hope was like 195 at the Combine and then 235 when he arrived for his first Dodgers Spring camp to start 2025. That was mostly good strength, but when you add that much size and strength that fast, it's tough to say how your body will trend into your mid-20s, and into your late-20s. It's plausible he's already at a spot that will be difficult to maintain, that he'll be strong but not as mobile as you'd like. He's young enough to alter the way he conditions himself and make meaningful improvements in a relatively short period of time...
12:23
Beware of the observer effect. I wrote during the 2019-2020 offseason that Julio Rodriguez had lost a step already. He had. He was running in the 4.4s that Fall and looked heavy. I wrote it, he was shown, and it lit a fire under him. These things play out over several years.
If I work for the Tigers, I'm showing Hope Keith's article today regardless of whether or not I think he's in shape. Not to flame Keith, just to motivate Hope.
Charles Bengal Tiger
12:23
Will DeVries lose his 60? Or just move to the back end of the players with that grade?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
Nah, I'll advocate for keeping him there, but yeah probably at the back now that we have a scary injury.
WarrenJ
12:24
Is there any chance that the Grady Emerson pick will be remembered something like the Tim Beckham pick?  I know it's a small sample, but I can't help worrying.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
Too soon for that. The Beckham pick felt worse because of how good Posey turned out to be. I'm not sure anyone who went immediately after Emerson is gonna be *that* good.
krob4385
12:25
Looks like Santucci is figuring it out in AAA. Does he figure to be a rotation option for the Mets next year? How high is his ceiling?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
I think if he takes another step forward as a strike-thrower early next season then you might see him pretty quickly. If he remains in this range then I'd bet his debut occurs either out of necessity (due to injury) or later in the year, like August. He's a post-2027 40-man addition, I don't think the Mets will go out of their way to accelerate that a ton unless they absolutely need to. He's a good prospect and will make a positive impact of some kind, but whetehr that's as a five-ish inning starter or nasty lefty set-up man... he's still got one foot in both of those outcomes as far as I'm concerned
Jonathan Adelman
12:28
I vaguely recall you saying at one point that you were in a Diamond Mind or OOTP sim league. Do you treat prospect ceiling as more valuable in that league since replacement level is a lot higher than IRL?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
It's a 24-team league, replacement level is pretty low. I care way more about proximity in that league than prospects. I often trade back i the draft or deal a first rounder for a currently good player. I do have 2 first rounders in this offseason's draft, though.
agel20
12:30
Am i deluding myself by thinking the Orioles prefer Franklin to Bradfield? Or am I just reading too much into them not calling up Bradfield when their OF defense has been awful?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
I get why you're frustrated and it sucks that LouBob got hurt. I'd be curious to see what Franklin can do on offense and give him some run. I'm pretty confident that Bradfield is a good-gloved nine hole hitter and that's kind of it, but Franklin might slug lefties enough to be a meaningful piece, and you need to find out if that's true.
Broken Bat
12:31
Eric, thanks for the hard work this year. You provided a lot of good information and observations. I think there is industry agreement that certain clubs ie. Guardians, Rays, and Mariners have a positive edge on pitching development. Are there teams that sort of do the same in developing mlb hitters?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
Gracias, ten years in and trying to evolve. I think Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Arizona have good track records with hitters.
Jonathan Adelman
12:34
Hi all,

I know the A1/A2/B1/B2/C1/C2/D scale (which is sometimes expanded, depending on FO) gained prominence for grading prospects (or prospect ceilings) during Theo Epstein's time with the Red Sox. Do you know who, specifically, introduced it as Boston's classification system? Was it Theo? Jed? Jason McLeod? Someone else further down the ladder? If this isn't a known answer, can Eric or Brendan use some juice to poll contacts and get their best answer/guess? It bugs me that we don't have a public record of who specifically proposed the system, especially since it now has pretty widespread adoption within the Epstein FO family tree.

Cheers,
Jonathan
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
I believe it was McLeod's.
12:39
It's a solid, usable scale, I don't think A should be split into two buckets, and the grades are focused more on ultimate role rather than "role-time/risk = value" like ours is. We (Beeg and I) definitely frame the way we think about guys using that scale pretty often. I think the scouts who are tasked with using that scale sometimes have too many B grades because they're trying to create attention from their bosses on those players, and too many C1 grades (basically our 45) because it's human nature to hedge a bit.
apeloton
12:39
Saw a rumor that davalan might get time at 2b since he’s played there before. Would make some sense org depth wise but usually don’t see guys move back up the defensive scale like that - does he seem like someone who could actually do it? Are the dodgers the type of org that would even consider it?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
It's uncommon for this particular type of move, it's usually a guy who's great at third base who moves back to shortstop, or a catcher conversion guy. Remember the Dodgers were hellbent on Michael Busch playing 2b for a while. I think it's worth seeing what he can do in a low stakes environment because the glut of OFs they have will otherwise require some triaging later on.
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