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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
Howdy from Port Charlotte and sorry for the delay. I had planned on chatting from the Rays stadium during their Extended Spring game against the Orioles, but the Orioles (according to personnel on site) canceled. So I hustled over to a Halloween-themed coffee shop down the road.
12:16
The Red Sox and Twins canceled three of their four extended ST games this week due to lack of pitching availability on both sides (Boston twice, Minnesota once) so I've seen a little less baseball on this leg of the trip than I had planned. I will try not to be machiavellian about how I respond, but I'm pretty frustrated with those orgs at the moment.
Tom
12:16
Eric, Justin Campbell keeps coming back strong in short outings. Is he back on the radar as a potential 4? Rule V eligible, so wonder how he fits for Guards future. Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
Saw him the day before camp broke and was at last night's game with a scout who covers Cleveland and we both think Campbell is back from the dead. He was throwing harder for my source than he did for me on he last day of ST and has been sitting 93-96 so far, averaging 94.4 mph. That's up from college. He pitched well in the spring outing I saw, four pitches, feel, built like a starter, moves like a starter.
Let's see if he can hold that velo all season as he goes from 0 to a whole slate.
Guest
12:18
How high are you feeling on Jonah Tong these days?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
Same as preseason: Two plus pitches, a third with some amount of utility, sketchy enough command that it will impact his results and keep him more squarely in no. 4 starter territory than mid- or top- of rotation.
Alex
12:20
It's early but any Braves prospect jump out positively this season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
Obviously Fuentes and Cam Cam, Ethan Bagwell hammering the zone, Gabriel Cesa has been pretty interesting here this week. Michael Martinez too, he has big juice but I'm not sure where that guy's gonna play.
Guest
12:23
Is Dylan Crews cooked?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
Saw him three times at Lehigh and thought he looked good. I'm still in. He's sooo tooled up.
D5on
12:24
Hi, Eric! Jesus Made is much bigger now. KLAW says its, “not all good weight.” Brendan shared some concerns, too. BA mentions he’s bigger but they don’t seem to mind. Where do you think?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
Shortstop is basically out of the question now. Power-hitting 2B/3B look, still really exciting power and bat speed. Could be Ketel, that'd still be awesome, but this caps his grade to where it is now. Like De Vries now has more room on his body for weight and a much better chance to stay at SS than Made. If that makes you prefer him to Made, that's justifiable.
Nic
12:26
What's your take on Josiah Hartshorn and Taitn Gray? They seem to be two of the biggest breakouts so far. Although its still very early.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
Aspects of Gray's skillset were a black box at draft time. How he'd catch pro stuff, how much contact he'd make... they were both tough to assess because he had done so little showcase stuff. The fact that Tampa sent him out to an affiliate at all rather than keep him in Extended is a great sign for how they thought he'd handle it. He's not catching, so the bar is going to be super high for him. It's too early to care about hit data (go look at Jake Bauers hit data, do we really think he's suddenly a 50% hard hit guy? No. So we shouldn't trust or care about that stuff for anyone yet) but the fact that he's not striking out a ton is a great sign.
This guy has huge power and projection, that piece was obvious at the Combine.
I am the apple
12:30
What's the most underrated baseball-producing region?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
Depends how you want to break up "the south" into sub sections. I think MS/LA/AR is still underrated somehow. Iowa/Kansas/Oklahoma too.
Aidan Miller
12:31
How alarming is the back problem?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
Don't sweat it just yet. How worried were you about Painter throughout last year? Aidan's talented, let's not freak out. It sucks that they might actually need him at some point and he won't be ready, but I don't wanna alter the long term outlook yet.
George
12:33
Hey Eric! Maybe this question spoils your Nats list, but I follow their minor league system pretty closely and was really excited about a trio of their young pitchers: Kent, Jose Feliz, and Tejada Jr. All felt like guys with control, innings floor, and a starters mix who might benefit from an extra tick of velo. I know Kent and Tejada both showed up this spring throwing harder, but Feliz has been MIA. Am I off base being excited about them?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
I'm on that group, Yoel still has messy command but the arm strength, breaking ball quality, projection, athleticism pieces are all there. The others I need to work on yet, writing as I travel here, Nats list next week.
Mark C
12:35
As a Brewers fan, I had a lot of trepidations on the Pratt extension. Early season AAA not making me feel any more comfortable. Will he ever hit enough to be worth what they gave him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Even as a guy who is on the lower end of the Pratt eval spectrum, I think he will. He need only be a good utility player and SS defender to justify the deal, and I think that's exactly what he's going to be.
Lord Thunder
12:36
Besides staying healthy, what does Jonny Farmelo need to do to move up into the next tier of prospects?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Maybe lean out a little bit so he can stay in CF?
Mr. Burrito
12:36
The passing of Davey Lopes made me think of scouting. Lopes had a great career even though he didn't make MLB until he was 27. In those days, players were considered to "peak" between ages 28 and 32, give or take. Does scouting still use that age range as a guide, or do peak years happen earlier? Also, does age factor differently for different positions, or different skill sets?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
It's worth exploring if guys' peaks have shifted during the current era of player development. I think team behavior around "marginal players" has also changed enough that some of their decision making might alter he results of a such a study. I think when a player peaks depends so much on individual factors (likes body composition and mobility) that we'd wanna break up the study into subsets of players.
Also, do pitchers decline sooner because they're throwing harder earlier? There are all kinds of variables shifting around.
NFP
12:40
Do you have any insight on why Esteban Mejia (or any pitcher) may have raised his arm slot? Cheap IVB? Better command/control? Different breaking ball shapes?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
Really excited to put on that game tonight to see two young bucks sit 100. It's possible it was changed for command-related purposes rather than anything to do with the characteristics of his stuff. He had a lot of stuff ailing up and away from him last year, maybe staying on top of, or behind, the baseball more often will get him in the zone. He should be considered a long-term dev project rather than a guy who could ascend quickly, I think it's okay for them to tinker.
BG
12:43
Any dart throw lower-level RPs who could reach the majors by end of this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
Does Gage Wood count? Why is that guy in A Ball?
Emperor of Dirt
12:43
Can Kyle Hurt provide a template for the Dodgers' development of Chayce McDermott or are similarities between the two right-handers mostly superficial?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
A scout yesterday, "Classic Dodgers reclamation project who could be nothing or could be really good". Whatever changes they try to make will probably be evident in a couple of weeks after he's in the org.
George
12:44
I have a question about process. How much of your grades or analysis stems from an original observation, say something like Gavin Fien's swing look like it'll struggle against velocity vs hearing someone else say "teams think Fien will struggle against velo" and then trying to get a look that to either affirm or dismiss that concern. I feel like I can read or hear something about a guy and then form an opinion on whether I think that is true or important, but I rarely watch someone and have a completely uninfluenced evaluation.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:47
I try to make what I write here be as much of what I think as possible. There have been times when covering the entirety of the minors, draft and international make it tough to have a wholly novel opinion about every single player, and that's when I'm tapping contacts with teams for their thoughts. I think social media prospect-curious environment online is not conducive to original thought. I had Yankees bloggers dragging me last year for thinking Roderick Arias was bad because...why? They thought he was good. How? Someone told them he was, or they saw nothing but highlights of him doing good things as they scrolled socials and weren't watching him swing underneath every decent fastball he saw?
Murph
12:48
Josuar v. De Vries - if you can only pick one, who would you choose? Keep up the great work!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
Leo. Josuar might have re-injured himself yesterday btw. Might have just been removed as a precaution, need to see SF lineups for today to know for sure.
dooz
12:49
Blaze Jordan and LuJames Groover. Anything to be excited about here? and is there an opportunity with the big league club?
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