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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Matt
12:00
When does the top 100 content start to drop?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Middle of next week! Draft rankings, How's My Driving?, Top 100, Picks to Click, and bunch more stuff from starts rolling out Wednesday.
Jim
12:02
What are the chances that Wei-En Lin adds velocity as he ages? Seems like he could be a mid-rotation starter if he did.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
I think he has that kind of ceiling but it's more about him finding feel for strikes and consistency rather than velocity.
Key Jangler
12:02
Can Tai Peete be a Drew Stubbs-type?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
That's not crazy. It'll probably take a while but, yeah. Power, defense.
DbackJay
12:03
What is your opinion on the recent diamondbacks orioles trade and the players involved in it ?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
Was working on updating the DBacks list this morning before we started. I really like Aracena, he's added like seven ticks of velocity across the last two seasons, he touched 101, he has a plus-plus cutter. It's unique late-inning stuff. He's not as athletic as Clase, but that's kinda what his stuff is like. He could be up at some point this year and, if not, then sometime in 2027 for sure. Arizona has put itself in position to have a really really nasty bullpen pretty soon.
Mejia I'm still working on and will wrap when we're done here. You should check back to the Dbacks list on The Board in a few hours and his report will be up.
nb
12:05
Eric - before Prospects Week starts, I'd like to be the first to ask you, "Why do you hate my team?"  With that out of the way, my team is the Phillies and based on their offseason, it looks like they're counting on heavy contributions from Crawford and Painter this year (and maybe Miller, I guess).  I know you have expressed concern about Crawford's ground ball rate and Painter's post TJS delivery.  Have you seen or heard anything lately that alleviates or increases these concerns?  Thx!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
I don't know that they're "concerns" so much as they're just true things that (in Crawford's case) historically don't allow for big production, or (in Painter's case) were different and less effective in '25. Crawford and Painter are both going to be able to *do stuff*, Crawford in the nine hole seems fine, Painter's delivery we will just see where it's at when he pitches this spring.
12:09
FWIW I wouldn't go out of my way to overhaul Crawford's swing, He's shown gradual feel for better contact. It's still more ground balls than literally any big leaguer, but it's trending better just by naturally letting him swing like he does, and I wouldn't mess with it yet.
Potato
12:09
Seems like Framber’s signing probably bumps Melton out of the rotation in Detroit, right? Is he good enough to force the issue sooner rather than later?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
He has options, he should keep starting, they'll probably need him. You want to keep him stretched out for as long as possible, only 'pen him in October.
Melton I mean
llcrosby
12:10
Is Atlanta's JR Ritchie mostly a #4/#5 ceiling, or does he have the additional velocity capacity to be a #3 or more?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
I love how he moves and he's still projectable, he could throw harder. Not sure the fastball shape will allow his heater to really sing even if he does. We like him, he made the 100.
NFP
12:11
Any major takeaways or changes to your process coming out of 2025? Other than adding BG :)
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
Some of it is really specific (right on down to how to care for my external hard drives, I tried drawing pitch shapes in my notes last year) and some of it is just being ready to adjust to changed processes yet again after the next CBA negotiation.
Oaktown Blues
12:13
Any prospects you're looking forward to watching in the WBC?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
Just dying to have super competitive baseball coming off a three-month tolerance break
Guest
12:13
Yeah, prospects are fun and all, but let’s ask the important question: when’s the tutorial video about shaving your back with a bike lock?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
I changed from using the old, heavy locks with the loops at the end (the sling in which the Norelco was held) to a simple one-piece cable lock that can't be used as a, uh, multi-tasker.
Brett
12:14
Any pathway for Termarr to boost his prospect status and claim the Pirates 2B job over the next couple of years?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
Brendan and I at least gave him a look as a potential Top 100 guy. He's still on our bubble as we're sitting here. We like him enough to consider the answer your questions "yes" even if we think he's more a 45 than a 50.
Hits&Balls
12:15
Hey Eric, thanks for all the great prospect content as usual! Can't wait for prospect week...and hope you get a break afterwards.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Nah, the season starts. This is the start of the thing, time to roll.
Ryan
12:16
As a Dbacks fan, should I be concerned that a couple players dropped from their midseason rankings? Cunningham went from 50 FV to 45 FV and Drake went from 45+ in TEX system to 45. Is there anything Could you expand upon the reasons for their drop from midseason? Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
I thought Kayson had the best pure hit tool in last year's class and 50'd him, Brendan thought he lacked the power of physicality to be graded that high right now. I thought Drake's small school background was an indication he had more growth remaining and that he'd have some 2-3 WAR seasons down the road, Beeg thinks he's more a stock no. 4/5.
We still like both guys, to be clear
12:20
That's Brendan's Dbacks list, I gave him my opinions as if I were a scout source he was tapping for work on the list, the difference in those grades is small enough that it'd be wrong to say we disagree about those players, but there is a little gap there.
DR
12:20
As an O’s fan not sure I get the Blaze trade. Aracena seems like an arm with significant upside and Strowd at lease a semi-proven bullpen arm for a team with relief questions. Would IKF have worked as a competent utility guy and required less of a resource expenditure?  Or did perhaps the IKF signing make this more necessary?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Blaze has more juice than IKF by a lot, and played pretty well last year when the Dbacks needed him to try different positions. I still think Baltimore paid a steep price for him and that Arizona sold high on a guy who I've had a fringe 40-man grade on for the last several years.
Oaktown Blues
12:21
How much signal is there in DSL stats? Are they more or less indicative of talent than, say, college stats?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Very little signal, the stickiest stat from the DSL is contact rate.
12:22
The play environment is so different than upper level pro ball. College stats have their own challenges but the distribution of the data is more normal, the DSL is all over the place.
12:23
Like, Cags. Caglianone crushed in college but his chase rate was still awful. We know he's risky because of the chase from that, even though he's crushing.
12:24
In the DSL, a guy might not have a red flag chase rate but he might have terrible plate discipline and you just don't know it yet because the pitching quality isn't good enough to reveal it.
Galahad
12:24
The Yankees have had 30+ consecutive winning seasons. How much would you say this has handicapped them in trems of player development as they are always drafting from the back end?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
The curve for Expected WAR by draft pick, aside from some weird ones like Piazza's pick, is shaped like you think it's shaped, and so your premise holds water. But also, they did draft Aaron Judge where they did, Mike Trout was picked where he was, Will Smith and Bo Bichette where they were, Jackson Merrill where he was...there are dudes still around, you've gotta find them.
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