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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
11:57
Good noon from the Cardinals backfields in Florida. I'm getting started a few minutes early so I can focus on the game a little sooner, as we're about to get underway. Plus, there are already a ton of questions in the queue.
11:58
I'm hotspotting, so apologies if things are spotty, internet-wise.
In any case, thans for being here.
Guest
11:59
Any advice on how to get into/improve scouting abilities? Any resources that have been imperative in your learning?
Eric A Longenhagen
11:59
I would read Jason Parks' chapters in the second edition of Extra Innings, I would read Dollar Sign on the Muscle, Future Value, and go see bad baseball at your local colleges.
Dallas
12:00
What’s the balance between actual production vs. K rates? I look at guys like Esmerlyn Valdez and Konnor Griffin, each have performed admirably this season and have up arrows, however both of their K rates are relatively high. Is the production legit or is the K rates red flags for long term success?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:01
It can be both. I don't think a high K% is always necessarily a "red flag", which I associated with bustdom. It adds risk, volatility but isn't damning on its own...
12:02
In those guys' cases, Griffin has a 75% contact rate so far this year, Valdez is closer to 70% even. That's a more granular, reliable data point than the K%. You can sort the FG leaderboard to see how the MLB distro looks, 75% is a shade below average but not awful.
Sam
12:03
Luis Morales… becoming what you hoped he would?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
His performance so far makes me feel good about staying on him for the reasons I did (guys built like that, who move like that tend to pan out, become something impactful) but you're not really right or wrong until these guys have had five-ish years in the bigs.
Early afternoon beerman
12:05
Does Jarred Kelenic ever get his groove back?  (Feel free to lie to me.)
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
Enough to be useful in a platoon capacity? Sure. Is he making All Star teams? No.
Ryan
12:05
Is David Davalillo dominating with just 1 pitch? I've heard rumor of a velo spike. Where do you stand on his SP/RP projection?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
I have him with four pitches. Was 94-97 for me this spring, been more 92-95 so far during the regular season. Two plus breaking balls. He's good. Rangers list coming next week btw.
Guest
12:08
Can you elaborate/rank on some BOS pitchers in Early, Monegro and Paez?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
My instincts are Early are that he's a mood multi-inning reliever. Feel for location is not all that starter-y, though his pitch mix is. I know his walk rate is low but he's more of a bully than a craftsman or surgeon...
12:11
Monegro has refined his approach and is now that guy who dumps his slider into the top of the zone for strikes and then elevates his fastball for misses. It's a pretty violent mechanical look, all kinds of trunk tilt, head whack... I'm inclined to think he's a reliever, too, bu a good one because he slider quality is a 70.
Paez is hurt and has the most vulnerable fastball of this group but he best touch and feel for command and two plus secondaries.
Ken
12:11
With elbow inflammation and then a quad injury, should the A's strongly consider moving JT Ginn to the bullpen?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
I think you start him as long as you can, he still has all of his options left. Unless you're contending and think a bullpen move gives you an impact guy back there, you wanna preserve your overall depth.
Tacoby Bellsbury
12:13
Which draft prospect has the most variable outlook based on where they land?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
Probably Seth Hernandez. Getting the fastball shape into the right spot and dialing in his command are the two dev variables there. Do both and he's a monster.
Ryan
12:14
Could Braxton Bragg see Baltimore this season? Is there any reason for Baltimore to even consider this? His development will surely be more valuable than any wins he could get the team - they've dug too deep a hole, right?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
I think your qualifier is on point. If they view things as salvageable at some point (and this applies to anyone in the minors who might be one of their best dozen arms in the org) you might get aggressive and promote the guy, but if you're out of contention, you do not.
See more Butts
12:16
How good is Ian Seymour?  And when will he get to prove it?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
I think he's good, Uncle Tony. Again, delivery is hideous but he's thrown strikes. A no. 4/5 type starter on a contender.
Jeremy
12:17
Will Painter be in the Phillies bullpen or rotation in the playoffs?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
I don't think we know yet, this is just the kind of thing that'll play out over time. Injuries between now and the end of the season will be more likely to dictate that than anything to do with talent. In the bullpen he could be K-Rod, or he could be Jobe. Turn the October lights on and these kids could go either way.
Ryan
12:19
How reliable are the contact rates Fangraphs reports on player pages in Rookie ball? There are guys with high whiff percentages and loud numbers, which I'm not used to seeing at higher levels. Is calibration inconsistent at such a low level, or is it an example of guys feasting on subpar stuff often enough to inflate their stats?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
They're not correct because, depending on the setting, what gets marked as a swinging strike or looking strike might be automated. For instance, if you strike out swinging, the MLB auto stringer gives he player three swinging strikes in the at-bat. I've asked Sean about scrubbing that from the leaderboards but isolating that stat and leaving the other stuff is not feasible from a web developing standpoint.
So just ignore those. I'm sorry, it's not ideal, and hopefully at some point MLB will have more accurate, pitch by pitch data for those levels soon and it won't be an issue anymore.
PJ
12:22
Handelfry Encarnacion didn't crack your Brewers list. I always perk up with Brewers international guys, especially given that legendary 2024 class that he's a part of. Is he just off to a good start but more of a 35 long term? Or room for more?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
Think he's gonna ponchada a ton, but has above average bat speed.
Throwing copper
12:23
Would you rather have Travis Sykora or Jonah Tong in a dynasty league?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
I'd almost always rather have the guy closer to paydirt in fantasy.
Refugee
12:23
Initial thoughts on the 2026 draft, especially for teams drafting 1-10? The Gerth article from February was a nice primer.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
The Lebron kid at 'Bama will be up there. More than that I want to take this opportunity to congratulate David on his new job with the Red Sox. He was hired this month and is moving to Boston.
12:25
We wish him well, and are not surprised that teams were on him not long after he hopped on with us. He's been a pleasure to work with for both me and the editors.
Guest
12:25
With the DSL starting soon, who are some guys to watch out for
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
Just the kiddos who got a bunch of money. I'll be snacking on Rangers streams all next week. Everyone should go sit on Elian Pena early too. The Mets broadcast their games down there and he's a bigger kid who should move quickly if he actually hits.
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