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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:01
Hello from crisp Tempe where guys are cutting dead limbs off of trees on my street. Some of these big coniferous jawns haven't been doing so well with temps being what they've been. When should I move?
12:02
Let's chat.
Anne
12:02
Bullish on the offensive ceilings of Xavier Isaac and Laz Montes? Seen them slip in some rankings, but purely on offense still middle of the order type ceilings?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
I have been higher on Isaac than Montes. Montes doesn't have enormous power. I know he's huge, but he's slugged more because of the leagues/stadiums he's played in more than because of his raw power. He also has a sub-70% contact rate. Mariners prospects can be overvalued during the Modesto/Everett window and then perhaps people over correct when they get to Arkansas (which is a tough place to hit)...
12:05
Isaac has elite power, but his swing is a mess and needs to change if he's going to hit enough to be relevant. His ceiling, imo, is clearly higher than Lazaro's because the power is lurking.
Fans MLB Forever
12:06
What do you think about the anonymous voters that the Cooperstown Hall of Fame has and what would be the solution or what do you think about the minimum vote for each ballot being 5 votes or more?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
First let me remind readers that I am not part of any of these bodies that do the voting, be it on single-season awards or the HoF...
12:08
I think if you believe you are competent enough to cast a reasonable vote, that you should have to make it public. Every time we have an issue like this, where someone's vote is way out of pocket, it's always a person who keeps their ballot a secret. Every troll is a coward...
12:09
It's consistent, across more than just HoF voting, and it might be as simple as forcing the body to publicize its votes, and maybe explain them.
But this is what it brings about, more than we are revisiting the careers of these guys, we are talking about this one dope.
12:11
If you told me that I could strategically not vote for Ichiro, and that instead if I voted for Kenny Lofton it would ensure Lofton stayed on the ballot, then maybe I'd do it.
But the fact that strategic voting like this is incentivized is a sign that the way the voting is done is dumb.
12:13
I also get people want to striate this stuff. It's not enough to say that Derek Jeter is a HoF'er, people want you to know where they think he fits among the group, how he ranks with Frank Robinson, etc. And I think people try to achieve that via making guys wait before they vote for them.
Eric
12:13
Raudy Reyes becoming Jarlin Susana would be like a favorable outcome for the Braves, yes?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
Yes
Fans MLB Forever
12:13
What do you think happened that Bregman has not signed?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
The way he's conducted himself is a problem for some?
James
12:15
What do you think of the A's trio of pitching prospects: Luis Morales, Mason Barnett, and Jack Perkins? Do any of them realistically project as mid-rotation starters?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
I'm pretty miserly when it comes to handing out "mid rotation" grades. I thin Morales has the talent for it, Barnett is more of a 4/5 for me (which to you might mean mid rotation) while Perk I think is a reliever.
Shirtless George Brett
12:17
Will any of the Royals catching prospects actually stick at catcher? looking at Mitchell and Jensen's fielding lines is pretty scary (Mitchell allowed 110 SB and had 16 errors in only 530 innings? WTF?)
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Both are sketchy. That's par for a teenage catcher, the lack of progress from both is frustrating. You keep both alive as prospects because the league wide inventory at that position is scarce.
Guest
12:19
Do you think it was coincidence the Rays acquired three arms at the deadline that all have Tanner Houck profiles, all low slot releases that do not give up HRs ? And who of the three has highest ceiling ?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
I like Hopkins. And they, and a lot of the league, has been more on low-release guys for the last little while
Tim
12:20
Am I right to be concerned about Spencer Jones? That strikeout rate was monstrous and even though the counting stats looked nice in the end, it won’t matter if he’s already striking out so massively.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
I think you can be concerned and excited at the same time. Take a ten thousand foot view, he's a 6'6" former two way guy, did we think he'd never need an adjustment period?
Cliff Avril
12:22
You don't grade many tools as a 65 these days. Not a complaint or anything. Just an observation.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
Yeah, unless there's a good reason to do it (if a guy has 70 raw power but I think it'll play down a shade because his approach is bad, or whatever) it's not an especially useful grade on its own
12:24
35 I'm more on board with because it feels like replacement level, ya know? Like the threshold beneath which having a tool that bad becomes a problem.
4 arm? Meh, whatever, go to left field it's okay. 3 arm? You're coughing up extra bases all the time.
Pumpsie Green
12:25
Is Ethan Salas more of a defensive prospect than offensive? And are the Padres pushing him faster than someone his age should be?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
  1. Yes, 2. not anymore but at one point yes
Ryan Russell
12:25
So who hired Travis? Any plans to replace him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
The Rays did, he started earlier this month. I am so, so thankful to him for his work and expertise. He has a ridiculous motor, I am so proud to call him my friend and to have had him as a colleague. Congrats to him on getting back in the game like he set out to.
And yes.
Sam
12:27
What's your threshold for considering a farm system top heavy? Do you look at an objective measure (e.g. percentage of value tied up in top 5 players) or is it more of a feel thing?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
It's more just feel but most systems have close to 40 guys on their list, so when an org like Philly has closer to 30 but 3 or more of them are studs up top that qualifies as top heavy to me.
Kawann Short
12:29
Is repeating the DSL a major concern for guys who land 7 figure bonuses or do some of the better athletes just need the time to figure it out? How should I interpret positive outcomes for guys who play down there the 2nd time around? Asking more generally, but I noticed Adriel Radney still gets a 45 from you despite his lackluster 2024.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
I think repeating the DSL has become common now that we've lost two rosters worth of spots. Ideally you crush in your first year and force the org's hand to promote you, especially when you're a top signee. But mostly there are just good players who repeat there. In Radney's case I think a lingering back issue gives you a reason to stay on him, lean on your priors rather than cut bait.
Ryan Kerrigan
12:31
Will the Roki Sasaki bonus pool saga this year have an effect on the international market moving forward? I'd imagine a handshake deal at age 14 appears riskier if teams are going to just cut you loose so close to signing day. Or does this only apply to a select few teams like the Dodgers now that they have set the precedent for doing so?
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