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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
Good morning from beautiful Tempe where the temps have finally dipped after something like 20 days in a row of record highs.
12:12
I'm going to the two east valley Fall League games today and want to put the bow on another dispatch of notes so I'll likely keep this chat tight to the top of the hour.
12:13
OKay let's boogie...
Sox fan
12:13
Hey Eric - thanks for all your prospects content. Wondering when you'll have any updates on the upcoming international signing periods. Particularly interested in any Red Sox related intel. Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
Yes, I've got a bunch of big $ names and team for the next couple of years in my notes and I'll be building out the $1mil+ version of The Board for publication in the next few weeks...
12:15
I don't have any Boston guys for '25 in my notes, they've tended to spread out medium sized bonuses across their entire class rather than spend $2mil+ on any one guy and I imagine that's the case again
Victoria
12:16
There has been talk of the Cubs trading from their loaded top of the system. People usually suggest Triantos or Alcántara, but what if they decided Mo Baller wasn't going to make it as a catcher?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
Then yeah, his value in the eyes of team who think he can catch would be way higher than it would be to the Cubs in that scenario and it'd more make sense to move him
Matt Thompson
12:17
Bummed I’m not making it out to the AFL this year and I’ll be living vicariously through all the videos I watch via Twitter. With the quality of pitching out here being the worst it has been in years, how does that effect  your overall quality of looks you’re getting? Especially on players you haven’t had pass through Arizona yet?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
Hey Matty, sorry I won't be seeing you at FPAZ then. Yeah, the hitting environment here is usually nutty (due to pitcher quality and altitude, etc.) and that's the case again this year as we watch at least one guy come in and walk/hit a bunch of dudes and totally alter the vibe and give-a-frick quotient of the game we're all watching...
12:21
The "look" (stuff like athleticism, bat speed, any visual detail) and the "performance" (everyone's stats for the six week league) are still easy enough to separate to get something out of the league even though you have to contextualize it
Roman
12:21
Padres fans are really excited for Salas and De Vries. Even if you assume they'll be as good as Merrill at 20, that puts their ETA at 2027. What do you think is a realistic expectation?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
'28-'29 somewhere in there
12:23
that' just their stock 40-man timeline, which I think is a fit for both guys. Maybe De Vries catches up by a year jsut because playing MIF is not as nuanced and difficult as catching.
Reuben
12:23
Any smoke on expansion with Oakland and Tampa moving?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
If they'll need to vacate the Trop for an entire season then it'd be cool/logical for the Rays to pilot expansion in Charlotte or Nashville kinda like the Hornets did in OKC after Katrina.
12:25
If they're only gonna have to stay out of the Trop until mid-'25 or so then I bet they play at a spring facility, even if it's the Braves new spot in North Port or something like that rather than their own in Port Charlotte
From what I've heard there is still a lot of assessment of the Trop's condition to do before any avenues are actually discussed.
The Hoffer
12:26
Curious if you saw Eriq Swan last night. Lot of interesting traits there but can he stick as a starter/what's his ceiling?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
I did Mesa/Scottsdale last night, haven't run into Swan yet.
Jon
12:26
Kristian Campbell has flown up prospect boards, and there are reportedly people in the Sox FO who think he is the best prospect in the system.  What are your thoughts on him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
He's in the top 4 for sure and I spoke to a non-Sox person yesterday who thinks you can make a coherent argument for KC over both Anthony and Marcelo. Talked to someone who tried to sooth my apprehension about Campbell's swing by putting the Hunter Pence comp on him
Nervous Flyball Pitcher
12:27
Is it the heat or the altitude at the AFL that's leading to the balls flying >110 mph? Either way, how do you as a prospects writer chip off EV or else adjust power grades when the environment is nutty like in the PCL?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
For sure. I watched Saggese barely hit a ball (95 mph exit) that snuck out to the opposite field. The wind, pressure, everything is currently shifting here as our seasons finally change. There are dudes with huge juice here, though. If I can isolate exit velos from AFL and compare them to everyone's regular season data I wonder if there will be a consistent delta across the sample
O'Malley
12:30
WHat does Lawlar's playing time look like next year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
Obvioualy let's watch to see what they do with Geno's club option because if they don't pick it up then Lawlar's gonna be in there almost immediately. I think he's going to play a ton but I bet Perdomo opens the year as the starter...
Any injury on their infield probably slides Geraldo to that spot and Lawlar into the lineup at SS.
So let's say, like 400 PA for Lawlar next year?
Catherine
12:32
Are Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana top 100 candidates going into this cycle? Early evidence of improvement on the part of Nationals pitching dev (and if so any wider evidence in the system?) or just two guys with great stuff who happened to put it together?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
Definitely candidates but not locks. Nats dev improvement would be something I'd feel more comfortable declaring once I've done that system and touched base on dozens of their guys.
Guest
12:35
do you have any insight on Briceno or Liranzo's long term projections once they get to Detroit?  Do you think either of them stick behind the plate?  If not, is the batted ball profile of either of them strong enough to justify a 1B or DH spot at the next level?   Just curious to the type of upside you think either may or may not possess
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Liranzo has looked rough back there so far this Fall but that's almost always the case here. You're gassed and catching a whole new staff of guys. I think both Briceno and Liranzo have the physical characteristics of long-term catchers (size and durability are so important) who, over time, show they can weather the beating catchers take and still produce. I feel better about Liranzo profiling at 1B/DH because it's such nutty switch-hitting power. Briceno's power surge here (he hit more homers in one game than he had all season) is more a product of the environment, he only really smoked one of those homers.
Matt
12:36
Since you live in the area, curious if you have you noticed if they’ve made any progress on renovations at Tempe Diablo Stadium? (Pitching/hitting labs, new clubhouse)
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
I've only been in the stadium itself lately and not down by the facility that sits in the middle of the backfields
Mike R.
12:38
It feels like not a single Yankee prospect other than Agustin Ramirez lived up to expectations this year. Hate to be greedy considering the major league success, but went went wrong in our farm system?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
I guess I'd say I think Lombard's season was a success but otherwise I see what you mean..
12:40
I was not on Everson Pereira so his season doesn't really surprise me. The fact that so many of the young pitchers barely played (Chalniel Arias, Henry Lalane) was not great. So many of the high-upside components of the system are in Complex/A ball.
Ely
12:41
How concerned should we be about Jun-Seok Shim? Even in tiny AFL sample, his stuff doesn't look right.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
Looked pretty awful the day I saw him. Sitting 90-91, super short and unathletic stride, breaking ball had okay depth but was easy to spot out of his hand.
Phil
12:41
Have you seen Danny Kirwin? He has a great story and I'd love him to make it.
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