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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
Good morning from Tempe, where it is somehow still 100 degrees every day. I've got an instructs game today at 11 so we'll keep today's chat pretty tight to the hour so I can prep my gear and drive there. I have a cat draped over one forearm right now, this is a very popular chat.
James
12:04
Always appreciate that chats, Eric! SD system has thinned quite a bit, who is the next potential dude behind De Vries
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
I think Humberto Cruz has a shot to be a big deal. Super smooth and projectable, could have premium command and a couple plus pitches.
12:06
Sounds like he's been shut down for the year, but the HS kids from the draft class throw this weekend here in AZ so I'm hoping to see Mayfield then. He could also be an answer to your question.
Guest
12:06
how much does TJ knock Christian Scott down, FV-wise and future role-wise?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Still think he'll start and be a mid-rotation guy (provided the rehab goes well, etc.).
Tough timing, though.
Ben Schneider
12:07
What do you think of Jaden Hamm after his first full season? Do you agree with BA that he should move into the Top 100?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Super interesting guy. Fifth rounder out of Middle Tennessee last year. Vert slot guy with huge fastball carry (like 21" IVB)....
12:10
Part of why that number is so high is because of his release height, which is higher than average. Do I think he's a Top 100 guy, i.e. does he have mid-rotation projection?...
12:11
I think fastball playability is a big deal and this guy has that for sure. He's deceptive, he's throwing strikes even though his arm swing is pretty long, and several of the Twins pitchers provide great examples of how fastball playability can carry your profile. Hamm's secondary pitches don't look as nasty as their performance stats (like miss rates and stuff) make them look on a spreadsheet....
12:12
i do think to some extent he's living off deception versus low minors hitters and his secondary stuff will be stress tested as he climbs...
Not crazy to 100 him, but I feel comfortable taking another few weeks to commit to a grade for him.
Sirras
12:12
Are there any players you're particularly excited to see in the AFL, either because you think it'll show their improvements or help you hone your opinion?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
So many. Can Henry Bolte hit? How will Zyhir Hope deal with playing guys several years older than him? Where do Gino Groover and Jett Williams play defense? etc
Mike
12:16
who’s rebuild do you like more: The Nats or Pirates?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Washington, mostly because Pittsburgh hasn't had a Soto to trade
randplaty
12:16
Why do the Padres have a higher chance of winning the WS than the Dodgers on the playoff odds even with Dodgers clinching the division?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
Good question, I guess it considers the quality of their team to be superior? I think the Dodgers are incredibly vulnerable and if I were putting my thumb on the scale I'd say they're a better WS bet, too.
Rico
12:18
Can Ben Rice hit enough for 1b? At least strong side platoon?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
Not in an everyday capacity, I don't think he's the long term answer to replacing an aging Rizzo or anything like that. I have a bench weapon grade on him. Guys with that much power from the left side are useful, but at his age the window for that is going to be narrow. High end outcome he ends up being a 40 (like a Luke Voit type of peak with all those K's) for a couple years.
12:21
Not saying this applies to you, Rico but a lot of Yankees fans get got by the way their minor league hitters have performed at Trenton/Somerset and Scranton. Remember Diego Castillo's numbers? Hoy Park's numbers? Estevan Florial's numbers? Gotta make this adjustment, Yankees internet.
Sirras
12:22
On a macro level, what are some of the main things you look for when scouting the AFL? How does it differ from scouting the minors?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
There's more of an opportunity to scout makeup when you see them same guys for six consecutive weeks. But there have been times I've been burned by that. Kyle Tucker didn't look like he cared to be here at all, for instance. Some guys are gassed. The context of the look is definitely different than sitting on a series in May...
12:25
Others specifics of my AFL approach: Go see the sexy, famous pitchers asap in case something happens and they get shut down. Prioritize west valley teams coming east, SRF often loses the tiebreaker as where I go because that stadium generates data i can access even if i'm not there...
M
12:25
Hi Eric, what's your thoughts on Luis Merejo? Good performance in ACL and Lynchburg with pretty high EVs this year.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
Hit tool has been pretty suss in my looks. Fuky, long swing that I buy could become more traditional looking as Merejo matures and shortens up.
Sodo Mojo
12:26
Do you think given Polanco's performance this year that the Mariners will start with Cole Young at second?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
I think he if rakes in he AFL he'll be tee'd up for that, yes. Polanco looked pretty ragged on both sides of the ball for most of the year. Glad he's gotten a few middle/middle mistakes to crush here the last couple weeks.
LeilaF
12:27
What, if anything, does a crazy MLB hot streak for a disappointing but young prospect like Luisangel Acuna mean for your evaluatioin?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
I think in Luiangel's case it continues his career-long trend of running hot/cold. I saw him in August and I thought he looked better than his numbers. He's gonna be a good utility guy. I don't think he's a star.
Klubot3000
12:30
Do you think there is a systemic overrating of Dodgers pitching prospects? They seem to all throw hard and then break. What was the last prospect that was actually developed by them into a successful big leaguer?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
Uhhh I'm not sure they break at a rate any worse than the rest of the league, ya know? I feel confident saying their guys in the minors tend to get better, tend to throw harder and improve their changeups in a profound way. I see what you're saying about a lack of homegrown guys but you can' ignor them having the guys to trade for Mookie or whoever else, which they've done a ton of. I also think we should give he Miller/Stone/Wrobo/Knack/Edgardo, etc group longer to air out...
Guest
12:33
Article on the Athletic today about the Cardinals and the recent downturn in their ability to produce quality, homegrown supporting major leaguers, which is mainly attributed to an under-resourced dev department. Do you have any additional information to share there - are they doing something really wrong, or is this just a case of taking some risks on young guys with questions (Gorman, Walker) and then not having those guys work out just yet? I suppose their habit of trading away good outfielders for very little doesn't help.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
I haven't yet read that just yet. Keep in mind that from living in AZ and most often visiting the Gulf Coast when I visit FL that the Cardinals day to day Dev ops are as much of a black box to me as any org's. On paper they don't coax high end stuff out of their pitchers. They draft a lot of generic guys like McGreevy, who's fine but has a low ceiling. Their entire staff is comprised of guys like that. They have absolutely failed at triaging outfielders but I have also liked the guys they have (Walker, V Scott) who haven't hit well.
Charlie Baker
12:37
Thoughts on the potential NCAA D1 scholarship increase / roster reduction? With that and NIL, will this lead to MLB farmining out development to the colleges?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
Yes, I believe that's a goal of the league.
Sodo Mojo
12:37
thank you for chatting this morning what do you think the Mariners paln is for Harry Ford?  Do they start getting him reps in the outfield next year with an eye towards being a part time catcher in 2026?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
I think we see OF reps just in case things play out in the way you describe circa '26, but his impact is greatest as a catcher and I think it's more likely he gets dealt than I do him becoming like a Varsho type in SEA.
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