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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Morning. Abbreviated chat today, but I'll try to move fast to get to a ton of questions.
Vern
12:02
After the draft and the Cubs and A's lists, what do you see yourself doing for the next year without a minor league season? Any fun projects in the works that you normally wouldn't have had the time for?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Yeah, my hope is to make some structural changes to the board, do some research with all this TM data I've collected and publish those pieces, etc. Mostly tho I need a break after the draft.
Mike
12:03
Do you plan to update your draft board again prior to Wednesday?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
I'll brush it up this weekend and Monday morning it'll be final.
Evan
12:04
Hancock or Meyer?
Eric A Longenhagen
Donny J.T.
12:04
Will there be any scout coverage of the taxi squad workouts/games?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
If I'm allowed to attend, of course.
Darren
12:05
In this strange year, are there 'risers' or 'fallers' in this draft?  If so, what factors lead to players moving up or down?  Or is it just about teams figuring out signability?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
You nailed one with signability, the other is just a lag in the way info flows to publications (whether it's players who popped up in that brief 4 week window or scouts telling us what players their model likes a lot)
Dominikk85
12:06
Are you are but concerned about andrew Vaughn's exit velocity? His average EV was good but his top EV was only 111 last year. That isn't bad of course but would have ranked him 110th out of 250 qualified guys last year (so more slightly above avg than plus). There were guys hitting 30 bombs with that kind of top ev range last year (esp with juiced ball) but could his raw power be more just ok than true masher? Or will his contact quality compensate for that? If ball goes back to less juiced could that affect his game power? Obviously still a good hitter but maybe not a pete alonso type of masher?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
He doesn't have elite raw, it's about approach and consistency of contact, as you said.
Osiris
12:07
AL/NL ROY sleepers with expanded rosters? Not sure about AL but Jake Cronenworth is my NL choice
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Ooooh, that's a sly sleeper if they run him out at 2B everyday or something. Post-hype Forrest Whitley in AL?
GPT
12:09
Giants likely to take on more risk at 13, who do you like with that profile there?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
I like Howard
Dominikk85
12:10
With 5 rounds this year what will happen? Will teams try to get extra cute with deals due to changed situation? Or will they be more conservative, mostly go with slot values and just try to get 5 legitimate prospects? Could this be a situation were progressive teams gain an edge because they can model new situations while the old school teams and the "wait 2-3 years to see if new trend is real" teams could either get burned trying to do new stuff or not trying new stuff at all because of uncertainty fear?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
I think a couple teams will get creative (it takes a team having a couple extra picks and also liking Landon Knack, or someone like that, a lot) but most will be conservative, and I bet we see a lot of seniors go in rounds 4 and 5 for $30k just so teams can ensure they get their earlier picks done.
Big Fan
12:11
Eric, in other years, where would the top high school RHPs likely go in the draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
Abel goes in or close to the top ten and is the best prep arm in most drafts, though I did like Libby and Cole Winn more a couple years ago. Bitsko probably gets there with a whole spring. Kelley is more a late first type
RT
12:13
Will there be another mock and a final mock before Wednesday's draft? Or just a final mock day of?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
Monday, Wednesday, then maybe (if things become clearer during the day Wed), just teams and names right before the draft.
Big Fan
12:14
Any chance Bitsko slips all the way to the Braves at 25?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
Yes but I think the advisor tries to push him to the comp round where there's more $, so don't think ATL is really a fit.
Greg
12:15
Any new insight on what Atlanta wants to do at 25 or draft philosophy as a whole?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
I think they'll take a college arm. Jarvis, maybe Roa.
Sam
12:16
Just finished Future Value (great read, everyone should buy it). In the acknowledgements, you mentioned being up for a local theater award senior year. I have to ask, what was your Freddy nomination for?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
supporting actor, godspell
D
12:17
In your book, it seems Jasson dominguez was the most highly sought J2 signing in quite some time. I'm wondering about acquiring him now in dynasty baseball, because he is sure to skyrocket on all prospect lists with just one year of good production, right? Like does he become a 60-65-70 FV on your list with one good season (because all the tools seem to be there)? Where would you put him after hitting .300 with 12 hr's in half a season of rk ball?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
I can't imagine having him near the very top of the overall list that quickly, and I'm not sure this year's play environment is going to interact with industry confidence.
Queenbee
12:19
In fantasy where SLG (no OBP), do you prefer B. Davis or C. Carroll?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
Davis. Love Carroll, but Davis' frame is has overt power projection.
Jacob
12:20
Is catcher defense considerably less valuable with the anticipation of the automated strike zone so framing (which I think is the most valuable aspect of catcher defense would be nonexistent). Where would you rank the most valuable positions to have a good defender with the automated strike zone
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
I'd set the over/under on league wide average wRC+ for catchers at 95, which is where it was before we could quantify framing. That would still make it one of the top two most valuable positions.
Pirates Hurdles
12:22
Hi Eric, thanks for all the content. When can we expect an INTL update for this year's group?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
If they move the signing deadline then probably not until later in the summer. If they don't, then definitely this month (like I said, your boy needs a break)
miles
12:23
cancelled season/potential of short season ball getting eliminated seems like it would really hurt raw guys still learning the game, no? i'm thinking pj hilson types, dudes from the bahamas with little baseball skills
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
i agree
Asif
12:24
Since they’re both switch hitting first basemen, how would you compare Aaron Sabato to Michael Toglia, who went in the first around last year?
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