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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
Good morning from Tempe. Let's have a brisk chat.
bk
12:18
Regarding the draft, will there be any real team specific, substantiated rumors leading up to it? Or is this just a year of ranking players (as you have), without any real ability to conduct a well sourced mock draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
Mock drafts are going to be tougher this year because some of who I/we attached to players was based on what personnel were at what games, and then of course that dope was rolled into more dope as we'd call around share that. Now, you have to derive more from agents and from teams without incentive to mislead you in a situation, and both of those are more often impacted by ulterior motives than "This GM is at a game in May" which is typically all signal.
Greg
12:21
How does a five-round draft change strategy for teams with extra or fewer picks than normal?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Depends where those picks are, not just that there are fewer.
Buff
12:21
Which team will be your next prospect report, and when will it come out? I live for these reports, have zero interest in KBO or sim league stuff.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
Dodgers Monday, then Cleveland, then Reds
Reid
12:22
So, Luke Little has now touched 105, if today's video is to be believed. What does that kind of velo bump do for him as a prospect, and can he rise in the draft based off of some workout velo metrics?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
I know nothing about the context of that situation. How often is he throwing? How many pitches had he thrown before that? He's a good prospect who throws super hard, same as before.
12:27
Like, we seen these videos of guys doing this in the bullpen before, sometimes with pulldowns.... do they ever sit 102+ as starters?
I suppose it's worth asking your question to teams, because I really don't know, but as with anything else I'm skeptical
JJ
12:27
Thanks for the Yeoman's Work episodes, I enjoyed them. Has anyone ever told you that you and Robert Mays from the Ringer have remarkably similar speaking voices? Almost uncanny.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
Not until now. How good a head of hair does he have? Is he a threat?
Adam
12:29
If a truncated season does take place with expanded rosters, how will teams balance the development of their top prospects? Would it be more detrimental to the development of a player to miss an entire season of games or be pushed to a level that they are not prepared for?  For example, if you were Jerry Dipoto, would you place Jerrod Kelenic on the expanded roster and try to get him in some games, or leave him off and send him to Peoria for instructionals?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
While roster rules haven't been delineated, or probably even truly decided by MLB, teams anticipate having their 26-man roster expanded (to 30? people are just guessing, nobody knows), plus another roster's worth of players (the other guys on the 40-man, plus some hand-selected prospects up to a certain amount, again, nobody really knows how many) as a taxi squad buffer for injuries. There might be a fall league of some kind that enables more prospects to get some reps. If you're the Orioles, you're probably approaching the prospects/roster situation differently than the Dodgers
So, no blanket answer to your question
Carlos
12:34
What do you have on Indians C Bryan Lavastida? There's not much on him out there despite elite age/level performance, good CS% for being a INF to C conversion prospect who signed for 8th rd money out of JuCo. List worthy? If not, what's holding him up?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
He'll be on the Cleveland list. Has had some issues throwing in my looks but he receives okay, he's really short to the ball and tough to strike out (Cleveland loves those guys), pretty athletic lower half, bat speed is fine, has performed both years...
Dave
12:38
Is the “Stanford swing” still a thing, or did that get retired? Will hitters coming out of Stanford have better prospects in the pros than in the past?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
Nah, new regime at Stanford and the swings are no longer that conservative.
Joser
12:39
Given the reduced bonuses, do you expect top HS talent to go to college and hit the draft when there's more $$ on the table?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
I think there's a great argument for 19-year-old high schoolers to go to school and be sophmore eligibles the year they'd get most of their deferred bonus money from 2020 were they to sign.
Mordecai and Rigby
12:41
How likely is it that Garrett Grochet remains a starter? The delivery doesn't seem too bad or too violent to me. The stuff is right there with Asa Lacy and Emerson Hancock, and it would be shame if he ended up in the bullpen. Great arm
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
15%?
Joser
12:41
Are there any kind of prospects who suffer more from a cancelled minor league season than others, or is it equally bad across the board?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
Anyone who is 2020 Rule 5 eligible is hurt. No chance to prove to their team or any other that they deserve a 40-man spot.
Rand
12:41
I don't have a question. Just want to say Future Value is terrific and everyone here should read it!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
Thank you
Luke
12:41
Eric - Just wanted to say job well done on the book. I’m almost halfway through and am learning a ton. Thanks a lot!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
and also you
Mitch
12:42
Jared Jones has 55 CMD upside? With 2 plus pitches and a 3rd avg? Why is he not a 1st rd arm anymore?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
No, I need to update that. He essentially hasn't thrown strikes for a year now
Ryan
12:42
Puason or Colmenarez?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
Puason
Mordecai and Rigby
12:44
How does a team build a proper draft model with so little input data for this year? Like I know they use multiple inputs (exit velo, makeup score, age, etc.) but performance is such a large part of the formula. Like do you just modify the formula/model to stress last year's performance?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
Yes, you can still use the model it's just going to be less reliable, but that applies to all 30 teams
RAH
12:44
If Austin Martin ends up an above average LFer and Nick Gonzalez an average 2B, does Nick become the more valuable player?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
If Gonzalez becomes a 40 2B and Martin is in LF then Gonzalez is more valuable (assuming they both hit like I think they will, though I'm more confident Martin will, which is also important)
Walter
12:45
Eli Morgan will pitch in the Majors and go Marco Estrada on us. Fight me
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
I like Morgan but even I can't whoop someone from six feet away
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