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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
2:01
Good afternoon from Tempe. here are some links to things:
2:02
There's been a ton of prospect stuff on the site this week. Short of linking all of it, I'll just point you to the prospect land page where you can find all of it. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/
KW
2:03
What's currently keeping you from hanging a 50 FV on Nico Hoerner? Would you need to see more power out of his bat to justify him inevitably moving to 2B?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:03
He might move up when we do the Cubs list
The power he's shown here in AZ has been surprising
pelkey
2:04
is inciarte, newcomb, and the top pitching prospect of cleveland's choice a good start for kluber? way off? how much would need to be added? i've had non-braves fans tell me that would be too much as is.
Oklahomabrave
2:04
Who do to see the Braves making a “big trade” for
Big Ben
2:04
Braves are forced to include one of Ian Anderson or Mike Soroka to get Corey Kluber/Madison Bumgarner/etc...

1) do you do it?
2) which of the two would you give up if pressed to move one?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:05
There are a lot of hypothetical trade suggestions (or similar questions) in the queue. Allow me to respectfully say I think it's generally not worth spending time thinking about that stuff.
Brooklyngail
2:05
Is Braxton Davidson figuring it out or is he just running into a few pitches?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:06
He does have huge raw power but he's not a 'stock up' guy for me this fall
Keith
2:06
How has his performance in the AFL changed your view on Luis Robert?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:06
Less confident in the hit tool now than I was from my spring and summer looks
BlueJayMatt
2:07
How do you deal with prospect value for guys like Julian Merryweather who have had surgery? Do you reduce their value? Increase their risk? A bit of both?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:10
We tend to scale back TJ surgery guys based on time more than risk. We're more likely to ding their FV if they have TJ at a time that costs them a full season or more. Merryweather is a weird case because 1) he's a pure reliever and already more of a 45/40 FV type than someone we care about ranking overall and 2) he's already 27, so we're already near what might be his decline phase. I think he'll be a 40 FV on the TOR list this offseason.
GPT
2:10
Giants signed Zach Green as a free agent out of the Phillies org, he had a big year in AA, anything on him?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:12
Plus power corner guy who strikes out a lot. Those guys are running around all over the place. Once in a while they work out and become Mark Reynolds or something like that.
Mandy: 2 Thumbs Up, Way Up
2:13
Will Josh Staumont's control problems keep him from being an effective reliever?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:14
I think they'll keep him from fully actualizing, but I think he'll be in a bullpen at some point.
Mike
2:14
What do you make of Garrett Williams season in AA and now AFL, and also his future?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:15
Arm swing is a little longer than I remember, has been low-90s here in AZ, breaking ball is still plus, control still well-below average. Pretty standard lefty relief prospect for me.
Big Ben
2:15
With Contreras, Melendez, R.Hernandez, Ruiz, W.Smith, Knizner, Amaya, Mejia, Bart, Murphy, Varsho, and even a couple draftees this year in Naylor and Seigler, is this as good as catcher has looked for top 100-150 in the last decade?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:16
I'm very excited about the catching. Not all of them will pan out, but yes it looks like the position is in good hands
ericmlord
2:16
What's the prognosis on Yusei Kikuchi? Ceiling? Floor?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:16
Wrote his capsule in the FA rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/
Fidrych
2:18
Kiley mentioned yesterday that you guys are working on how to assess prospects with limited major league experience (players in between prospect and proven). I've been thinking about this a lot in regards to Josh James. I understand that you aren't sold that the command will ever develop even to a 50, and when putting a future value on him, you have to apply likelihood of outcomes, so he might still profile as a 45-50 FV. He has one month of MLB results, against 40-man rosters, both huge caveats. But am I off base to look at the positives (velo, strong whiff rates for each of three pitches in the bigs, 24% whiff rate in the playoffs [albeit as a reliever]) and determine that his ceiling is something like 60 FV in his peak years?

TL;DR - Am I getting carried away with expectations for Josh James, or does his short MLB stint make his FV grade more complex than your typical prospect?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:18
He's definitely a more complex case because of the changes to relief usage, the apnea, etc,
Flip
2:19
Will there be a graduated prospects list with FVs like you did last year?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:20
I imagine we'll do something where we re-evaluate the FVs later, but for now here are the grads with what we had on them when they graduated: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/2018-prospect-graduations/
Mandy: 2 Thumbs Up, Way Up
2:20
The latest CBA obviously punted the issue, but has there been any new discussions on an international draft, especially in light of the ongoing legal issues?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:21
Depends how much the MLBPA wants to continue selling the rigihts of amateur players away for their own gain.
Jack
2:21
Have you seen Gionti Turner? Seems intriguing.
Eric A Longenhagen
2:22
Yeah, he's okay. Very young, good frame, a bunch of 40s and 45s that could mature into 50s, which i s great on a MIF
Mandy: 2 Thumbs Up, Way Up
2:23
What is the general hierarchy of positions in a scouting department below the scouting director?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:26
You've got the directors of each department (pro, amateur, international), there might be an assistant director beneath any of those, then you have national crosscheckers, than regional crosscheckers on the amateur side, then the area scouts. For pro there may be a special assignment scout who sees trade targets or high-priority players, but mostly all the pro scouts report right to the directors or maybe a scouting coordinator. Int'l scouts are scoured all over the globe.
Purple Mays Haze
2:26
How pervasive are technologies like TrackMan, Yakkertech, etc in the minor leagues? Is something like playing with pitch grips and seeing if it translates into spin rate available to minor league players and coaching staff?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:27
They're spreading rapidly. Trackman is probably ubiquitous at this point.
TomBruno23
2:27
As a Cardinal fan, I feel that is a list of kids only a parent could love.  Led off by a guy who has pitched one game in two years, a hitter who wears catching equipment, the future joey Gallo, a guy whose best tools are age and switch-hitting, Dakota Hudson, a complex teenage OF, a scaled down Miguel Sano (who you know I’m excited about), an injured pitcher, a defensive utility IF, the future Luke Gregerson, and Wheels Garcia.  I do think Andy Young will be a good utility player,  I’m now remembering my dream last night that Pham beat Fowler out for RF and now realizing he was dealt for the #15 and #19 guys on this list.  How should I feel about the future?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:27
I think the future is bleak for all of us
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