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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Happy Friday, everyone. I'm gonna give it a minute for questions to flood the queue since I posted the chat close to noon.
Please enjoy as I post some links from this week's stuff. Twin Peaks Theme - YouTube
12:04
A long analysis of Kodai Senga here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mets-bolster-rotation-sign-kodai-senga/
Projected teams and scouting reports through here: International Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs
12:05
There are also some relevant visual aids here: FanGraphs - YouTube
okay let's do this thing
Danboy McGraw
12:05
Volpe ready for the show?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Definitely getting there, but given that he isn't on the 40-man and they have so much depth and versatility among the infielders who are, it'll either take him seriously kicking down the door or a slew of injuries for him to get there. I think 2024 is more likely.
Joe
12:06
What is the industry consensus on Jasson Dominguez? Seemed to take that step forward last year closer but definitely at initial expectations (which were totally unfair). Are we looking at a solid regular, or is it out of the question he takes another leap forward this year and hops back on the path to stardom?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
Talking about him lots throughout Fall League with folks and folks tend to think he's likely a 5 with a shot to be a 6. I'm in that camp, too.
12:08
Routes in CF were quite good all Fall, i buy there will be playable power, probably a 40 hit tool but still good offensive combo in CF.
M
12:08
You mentioned in your international prospects write up that there were some under $2 mil prospects you added to the Board because they were personal favorites of yours....which guys particularly stand out in that category?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Welbyn Francisca (gap), Kevin Ereu, Yoelin Cespedes, Reiner Lopez
Danboy McGraw
12:09
What happened to Jeter Downs? He was supposed to be our big get from the Dodgers and now all we have is 2 WAR Verdugo
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Became apparent in the upper levels that he could not get on top of high fastballs and he couldn't adjust once the book was out
Efrim
12:10
Hi Eric - When does the first team list go up? Any order you can let us know about?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
Next week. Brewers, Dodgers, White Sox, Guardians, Reds is the first batch
Hen
12:11
Any hope for Pratto or Brujan in 2023?  Both were in a lot better shape a year ago.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
Brujan's length to entry despite his short levers is starting to scare me, and he might just be a util after all. Pratto i still think will be a 50.
12:12
I understand the fantasy community sees those Brujan SBs and becomes thirsty for guys like that and hype can get out of hand.
Jeff
12:12
Is it possible to be a good international scout if you didn't grow up in that country? I understand evaluation is still the same but it seems that some of the softer parts of scouting would be hard to do without having lived in that culture. Hopefully this doesn't come across as xenophobic
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
It doesn't come across that way at all. I think you're right, so much of scouting in that space is about your social network and relationship building, communicating even to get basic stuff like workout times and locations is an outsized part of it. There are good int'l scouts and directors who are native english speakers but lots of them are fluent in Spanish. It's the first thing I'd tell someone hoping to get into baseball to learn.
Romorr
12:15
If I said Drew Rom was going to succeed, where other soft tossing lefties failed, like Wells, Lowther, and Zimmermann, what would be the number 1 reason for that success?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Command and sneaky fastball utility? I think he'll succeed insofar as he's a backend starter, not a huge impact guy.
Steven
12:17
After all the trades, where do you see the Padres farm system trending now? Jackson Merrill, Dylan Lesko, Samuel Zavala & Ethan Salas look like an interesting quartet of high upside youth… thoughts? Adam Mazur real pulse?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
I agree those names are top of the heap, you might add Robby Snelling to that list (i'm lower on him). They tend to do a good job picking the right guys. Depth throughout the system is kind of an issue but the way the big league roster is structured relies less on that than other teams. Let's see how the pitching dev trends now that we're a little over a year out from them making changes to their staff in that space.
Hen
12:18
Frelick, Bo Naylor or Toglia, who am I hitching my wagon to?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
Naylor for me, then Frelick, then a big gap before Toglia who I think is a 40, if that.
Guest
12:19
Should F Alvarez be starting full/most-time in Queens from Opening Day?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
No, definitely looked undercooked back there when they put him in the lineup, super anxious at the plate too. Could see him grabbing the lion's share of playing time during the year but probably not out the gate.
Kirk
12:21
Feels like the Nats are still looking for another bat so who is a realistic option?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
I don't have any dope around that but just looking at their roster needs (outfield upgrades feel most likely) and tendencies as an org (hit-tool driven guys like Asdrubal, Harrison, Kendrick, Cesar) there's Drury (gives you versatility and thump), Jean Segura (their type for sure but redundant positionally with Garcia), Profar (again, lots of contact) and David Peralta. Not really a sexy option or long-term pillar.
Guest
12:23
We’re Vientos/Baty in the show enough to affect your outlook on either/both?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
Vientos I'm scared of the bottom falling out of the hit tool. Baty is tough because the swing just doesn't let him get to all the power, and 3B is loaded league-wide so he's gonna look meh on the continuum unless he is getting to the power.
Quincy
12:25
Josue .de Paula the next big thing for the dodgers?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
Saw him a couple times in the fall and he looked pretty good. Beware of DSL stat-based hype you see on social media, I feel like it got out of hand with this guy, but yeah his frame and swing are exciting and he didn't look awful making the leap from DSL pitching to instructs pitching.
Tyler
12:26
I've been watching some of the pitchers who came up in September and I'm fascinated by Drey Jameson. Do you think his extreme GB profile can stick long-term as a starter?
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