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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Good morning from Tempe, where the heat is starting to crank up. Let's squeeze in a chat before I head out to Extended.
Birds
12:03
Have you seen anything different from Matt McLain to explain the power surge, or is he just on a heater?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
Nothing new about the swing, nothing obviously different about his physicality. I'm inclined to believe it's just a weird stretch. His line is very strange for a guy who's been a contact-over-power type his whole life.
Michimore Wizskins
12:05
What do you make of Gunnar Henderson's early season success and where would he rank right now for you? Where would he rank in this years draft had he gone to Auburn?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
I'm glad he's doing well, area of the zone in which he's making contact is still fairly narrow, lots of inner third pull-side stuff, which is fine. I feel free to change our prospect rankings as soon as I think they should change and he's 68th right now, so I think he's 68th. He'd probably go in the top 5 picks if you were lining him up against this draft class.
joe
12:06
Cause for concern with Volpe/Dominguez?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
Saw Domingues for a few days this month. Doesn't look good. In fairness to him, one game was against Andrew Painter. Hit an impressive oppo homer the one day, glad he's not so jacked and stiff-looking anymore, there are still impressive-for-his-age tools here but the hit tool component has been scary. Obviously the ABS stuff in the FSL is a variable to account for.
12:09
Volpe I haven't seen yet this year (Northeast trip in July for me) but a scout volunteered to me a couple weeks ago that they thought his breaking ball recog was not good. That's the only new nugget there, give him time to adjust I say.
Romorr
12:10
Little surprised with the Prieto power. Has he added some muscle since coming over from Cuba? Swing change? Or just beating up A+ pitching as a 23 year old.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
I thought we had him stuffed pretty good on the Int'l list but this level of power has been a huge surprise. Yes, because he's the age he is I'm inclined to believe that's a big part of why he's been so dominant, hope they send him to Bowie soon.
Lou Perltzman
12:12
If I were Eric I'd simply release all of the prospects articles simultaneously but with even more rigorous analysis
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
i lol'd at my kitchen island.
Jake
12:15
Liover Peguero is off to a good start in AA so now it’s a nice tools package with some high minors performance. Is he someone who should be getting more attention?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
I'm not sure how to answer this question directly, to be honest. Attention? He's good, the approach is not great, he's extremely adept at getting on top of letter-high fastballs, there is good pull-side pop for a 21-year-old, defensive footwork is great, throwing accuracy has kindy scary of late...it's a good mix of stuff, we have an everyday player's grade on him
John
12:20
Vinnie P keeps controlling the strike zone and producing. Would you expect him to be up in the second half with above average regular upside?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
To be an above-average regular at 1B is a tall order, the offensive bar you need to clear is so high. Think about how hot Rhys Hoskins was at the start of his career. He's been average. Obviously we like Vinny, he was on the top 100, and I guess Brandon Belt is a good example of a guy who was a 55 at 1B despite lacking huge power. More likely Vinny is in the 2-ish annual WAR range than a star, which is still great.
Joe
12:23
I already see the Braves being connected to college pitching in the 1st round of the upcoming draft, which seems to be the weakest part of the draft. I understand that the Braves strategy has been take safe players early and save a little money for a few third tier high school guys later in the draft with some upside. With the Braves system being ranked near the bottom, drafting 20th this year with the addition of a compensation pick, this gives the Braves the most draft capital they have had in a few years and most likely more then they will have in upcoming drafts. Wouldn’t this be the year to alter the strategy and go for a high school player early with the potential to be an impact player the system desperately needs?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
You make some good points. I think you could also argue the relative lack of college pitching and glut of high school guys and hitters in general means you could argue for the other way around. Take someone like Adam Mazur in the first round (semi-comparable to Ryan Cusick as a stuff-heavy, relief risk type of college arm) and wait for the wave of high school prospects to roll down to your next picks. But I also think that kind of thinking is why they've done stuff like reach for Beau Phillip, draft from a position of scarcity for its own sake.
Chris A.
12:27
What’s going on with Brendan Rodgers?
Paul
12:27
Have you seen or heard anything on Michael Harris to bump him up your rankings?
Bob
12:27
Have you had any reports to suggest Michael Harris’ nice start is partly due to addressing some of the concerns you e had with pitch recognition?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
Glad these questions came in one after another, let's examine:
12:28
Here are Brendan Rodgers' stats:
everyone click on the grey "minor leagues" button just beneath the "Dashboard" tab
12:29
Now, the offensive environment at COL's affiliates is certainly different than ATL's, but look at Rodgers' surface-level, triple slash lines throughout his minor league career.
12:30
He was utterly dominant the whole time, amid many injuries, and this level of excellence dates all the way back to his sophomore year of high school when he was crushing good pitching in Florida.
Is there anything about Rodgers' performance below the surface, that could have been a warning sign that he'd have issues hitting in the big leagues?
12:34
Based on what I'm looking at on video, with some of the background metrics I have access to, Harris' plate discipline so far in 2022 is not as scary as you might think just given how infrequently he's walked, historically. He's in a 22% chase rate area, 46% swing rate, after about a month of play. Those are pretty normal. We'll obviously do a deep revisitation of this stuff when we do the Braves list, and Harris is so tooled out that it might not matter and you'd certainly be justified to think he's a top 100 prospect right now.
12:35
But given what you Braves fans experienced recently with Drew Waters (and the way Kiley and I were duped there and by other swig-happy guys in the past) I'm surprised folks don't have their guard up wrt Harris.
Matt
12:35
Chase Silseth makes his MLB debut tonight… has he made improvements that change his outlook or is the evaluation on him the same as it was on the Angels list in December?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
Cool! One thing that is different is Silseth is back to using more changeups than sliders. He had a great split in junior college (yes, every team could have had this guyin 2020) and I thought it took an unnecessary back seat to his slider at Arizona.
12:39
Also, at a very quick glance, it appears as though his stride direction has changed a little bit, which may have altered his slot and fastball shape.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:40
Is there more to Shane McClanahan exceeding expectations since graduation than his ability to limit the walks, or is that the core of it?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
I was way light there. Yes, part of it is sheer command (Rays have now helped Baz, Glasnow and McClanahan overcome relief risk stuff in a big way, Patino jury is still out) but two other striking things are a) health and b) consistency. McClanahan's stuff was this good in college, he was wildly inconsistent. Shane McClanahan - Baseball - USF Athletics (gousfbulls.com)
12:43
click on the "stats" tab and look at that game log. Wild ride. You'd never know that how things once were for this guy.
Prospect RS
12:43
Jeter Downs has looked a lot better so far this season than last (taking more walks, hitting for more power). Is there anything that he changed in his game that might have cause this?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
Not that I can see. Still a lot of scary in-zone swings and misses.
Rick
12:44
Do you see Baty or Vargas as the future starting 3b for Mets and Dodgers and if so, when?
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