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Dave Cameron
12:02
Happy Ohtani Rumor Day, everyone.
Here's what I wrote about his situation this morning.
12:03
We can talk about other things too, of course, but I'm guessing this will be an Ohtani-heavy chat.
PF
12:04
Is there ANY chance whatsoever the Jays get Otani? They had like five guys there scouting him.... or is that just advance scouting for next season when he's with the Yankees.....
Dave Cameron
12:05
Sure, I think you could reasonably argue that every team has a greater than 0% chance here. This isn't a situation where the big market teams can just drive the bidding to a place where the low revenue clubs can't afford to get involved. Everyone will be able to afford Ohtani. So if someone can make a particularly great argument for why he'd be best served joining their organization, I wouldn't rule anyone out.
12:06
Even the Padres could theoretically say something like "look, we're not going to be good when you get here, but that means we can afford to give you 300 at-bats and it doesn't matter. No contender can give you the two-way playing time we can."
The Average Sports Fan
12:06
I don't understand why Ohtani doesn't wait until he is 25 to come over.  The loss of money is so incredible.   Why do you think he is doing this?
Dave Cameron
12:06
Well, there are diminishing returns, and he's going to be a rich dude regardless. So he might just care more about challenging himself than becoming super extra rich.
ChiSox2020
12:07
Who are the top 3 favorites for Otani?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Everyone is going to say the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs, just because the assumption will be big market contender with money to throw at him in a future extension. But I don't think this is a Harper-esque situation where you can eliminate the other 27 teams. Maybe the Phillies make a really interesting pitch? Maybe Seattle pitches him on the community aspects of living in Seattle? Maybe he really wants to be teammates with Darvish and he goes wherever Yu goes?
Shohei Otani
12:09
Where would you place me in your trade value rankings as of today?
Dave Cameron
12:11
Assuming he signs the generic UPC that locks him in for six years with no extra guarantees, probably 7-15. High-risk/high-reward, similar to Judge, who ended up 6th. More uncertainty than with a hitter who had already destroyed the Majors, but probably more upside too, if he can be a two way superstar.
det_otani
12:11
Is Otani likely to go to mlb as a hitter?
Dave Cameron
12:11
No. Pretty much universal consensus that he's an elite arm and a good bat.
mike
12:12
Cleveland. That's it. Just Cleveland. Not a question, just a wow.
Dave Cameron
12:12
This is a remarkable run, no question.
The Man With No Name
12:12
What kind of current-player comp do you put on Matt Olson?
Dave Cameron
12:12
He looks like what Kyle Schwarber was supposed to be.
12:13
(That's still only a ~+3 WAR player, since Schwarber was wildly overrated, but it's a nice thing to have around)
The Man With No Name
12:13
If you're the Dodgers, where do you plan to play Bellinger long-term?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Probably the outfield. First base feels like a waste of his athleticism.
Dylan
12:14
So do my A's have a chance to get Otani if the money truly doesn't matter and they get creative with playing time/contract stuff?
Dave Cameron
12:14
Everyone should at least take a shot.
It can't hurt.
Q-Ball
12:15
If Mike Trout hadn't signed that extension, he would be a FA this offseason.  What would a realistic Mike Trout FA contract look like?   Shock us.....
Dave Cameron
12:15
15/$600M with some opt-outs.
Keith Hernandez
12:15
ESPN's Instagram account posted a "Who Should Win NL MVP" post this morning with Stanton, Harper, Arenado, and Goldy.  No mention of Blackmon.  I've abandoned Sportscenter as my go to for sports news for awhile now, but come on guys... you can't even include the probable front runner in there?
Dave Cameron
12:15
Realistically, Blackmon isn't the probable frontrunner.
12:16
Can argue that he should be, but he's not.
Mac
12:16
How much do you expect having a progressive FO will factor in to where ohtani signs if he wants to remain a 2-way player?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Not very highly.
Raphael
12:16
Is there any chance Otani signs a deal that allows him to become a free agent sooner (like Cespedes), or is that not allowed?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Not allowed.
Q-Ball
12:16
If the Cubs traded a position player this offseason for pitching, who do you think has the most value:  Schwarber, or Happ?   Or do you think the Cubs should consider offers for Addison Russell, given Javy's play at SS?
Dave Cameron
12:16
I'd imagine Happ has passed Schwarber in trade value at this point.
12:18
And Baez is having a typical Javy Baez season. I'm not sure why what he's done would have a significant impact on the decision. You keep Russell if you think he's going to bounce back. You trade him if you don't.
LegallyEagle
12:18
I'm guessing MLB will stay silent rather than post an official "position" on how a team would go about considering an extension with Otani? Just see if w/e materializes is remotely "reasonable.'
Dave Cameron
12:18
I would guess that the 30 teams will receive some kind of memo just reminding them of the rules.
But yeah, they can't lay out ahead of time where they'll draw the line.
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