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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:00
Happy Wednesday. Let's see if we can do better than Steve Delabar did last night.
Q-Ball
12:01
Hi Dave! When are you going to unleash the new prospect writer on a chat?
Dave Cameron
12:02
Eric Longenhagen will be chatting here on Friday this week, giving you all a chance to pepper him with questions and get to know him a bit better. We'll find a permanent spot in the chat schedule for him in the not-too-distant future, and he'll do weekly chats (and podcasts) in addition to his writing on the site.
Zonk
12:03
The Pirates are in contention, and rolling Jon Niese and Jeff Locke out there. Meanwhile, Glasnow and Taillon continue to mow down AAA batters. Why are the Pirates waiting to bring them up? Are they waiting on the Super-TWo deadline?
Dave Cameron
12:04
Taillon hasn't pitched much the last few years, and Glasnow still has significant command issues. Keep in mind the lesson of Jose Berrios; the jump to the big leagues isn't always as easy as it appears, and it does more harm than good to put a kid on the yo-yo between the big leagues and the minors.
They'll be up this summer, but rushing it isn't a great idea.
Ben
12:04
Jackie Bradley's obviously had an insanely hot start at the plate, but his defense has been bad, both by DRS and the eye test. A lot of mental mistakes and miscues. Do you think he put a lot more focus on his offensive game this offseason or something? What's going on, you think? He hasn't ever looked like this.
Dave Cameron
12:05
It's not that unusual for little guys to bulk up a bit in an effort to add more power, seeing their offense spike and defense slip at the same time. Brett Gardner and Gerardo Parra are recent examples of defensive wizards who shifted their value; won't shock me if Bradley follows suit.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:06
What's up with Jason Heyward's 79 wRC+? The power seems to have just evaporated, despite an LD% well above career average. Is it the IFFB%? Having 1/5 of your fly balls be auto-out popups intuitively seems pretty high - is hitting too many pop flies his issue? Or is it this all just small sample size rearing its ugly head?
Dave Cameron
12:06
He's not pulling the ball in the air at all, and he's not strong enough to consistently hit the ball out to left or center field. He's going to have to start turning on some balls.
Sirras
12:07
What would Clayton Kershaw have to do to put himself in the conversation for best pitcher of all time? Feels like he's been pitching in that territory though no single season has off-the-charts WAR.
Dave Cameron
12:09
He'd have to sustain his 2016 for another five years, and then age well. As awesome as Kershaw was, he's at ~50 WAR; Randy Johnson got to 110, and he's not even in the mix for best of all time argument.
Q-Ball
12:09
I don't think the Cubs are perfect. I think they need a power lefty for the pen. I think they should be in on Chapman if he goes on the market. What say you?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Andrew Miller makes more sense, since Chapman will want to close.
Erik
12:10
Does it seem right to you that Odor's suspension is so much shorter than the domestic violence suspensions? Is violence off the field that much worse than violence on it? Or is there a totally different logic which goes into a suspension for an on-field vs. off-field incident, so any comparison is worthless?
Dave Cameron
12:11
There is a huge difference between throwing in a punch in an altercation with another professional athlete versus hitting a woman. I agree that MLB's penalty system for various events is weird, but we shouldn't conflate what Odor did with someone who commits domestic violence.
Guest
12:11
Any hope for Prince or is he completely cooked? The underlying stats aren't great but they aren't this bad
Dave Cameron
12:12
He's probably about as good as Mitch Moreland at this point. He's not worthless, but he should be platooned at the minimum, and shouldn't be viewed as a big bat any longer. He's a slightly above average hitter that does nothing else of value.
LeTigre
12:12
If Jurickson Profar comes up during Odor's suspension, what is the likelihood he sticks and takes over for Elvis Andrus at SS?
Dave Cameron
12:12
Zero.
AJ Preller
12:13
Say I eat $3-5M annually on the Matt Kemp contract, would that bring back a legit package? Or would we be prudent to sell for anything we can get, covering as little cash as possible? Thanks
Dave Cameron
12:13
Matt Kemp has a .250 OBP and can't play the field. He's not quite worthless, but he's close to it.
AJ Preller
12:14
Would it be prudent to explore a Pomeranz trade?
Dave Cameron
12:14
Absolutely. The Padres already missed their chance to cash in on Tyson Ross at peak value, so they should have learned the lesson of hanging onto a depreciating asset too long.
Zonk
12:15
Jake Arrieta is a FA after 2017, heading into his age 32 season. He's clearly gunning for a mega contract. Do you foresee a Grienke-like contract? How risky do you think it would be?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Yeah, he made it pretty clear that he wants north of Strasburg money, which he's worth if he stays healthy and keeps dominating. I could see him getting 7/$200M or something, even at his age, if he keeps showing he's this good.
Jacob
12:16
How do you handle situations like the one from the podcast on Monday, where your neighbor said the Cubs lost in the NLCS because they were just content to be there? Do you politely try to point out that it is nonsense or do you just nod and keep quiet on the subject?
Dave Cameron
12:17
I generally just say something like "well, the Mets pitching staff can make anyone look bad" or something, without actually trying to turn it into an argument. In my experience, most people in that situation aren't looking to be convinced.
Turbo
12:19
Four consecutive bases loaded walks for the Reds last night. Woof. Anything the manager can do differently, or is he doing the best he can with a bad bullpen?
Dave Cameron
12:19
Yeah, it's just a talent issue. The Reds relievers stink.
David
12:20
The signing of Stras frees up rizzo to trade one of his MILB arms not named Giolito. What should Rizzo target with some one like AJ Cole? I'm thinking a good bullpen Arm with 2+ yrs of left of service - Joe Smith?
Dave Cameron
12:20
I don't think A.J. Cole has much value anymore; he's been exposed as a fringe guy.
The easiest way to improve the Nationals bullpen would be to just use Shawn Kelley in high leverage situations.
Will Graham
12:20
So is Clayton Kershaw the likely NL MVP at this point
Dave Cameron
12:21
He'd have my vote.
guest
12:21
Way back when, you were just about the only one who didn't think Jesus Montero was going to be a star. What did you see (or not) there? Is that a type of player you just don't believe in? What's the "type?"
Dave Cameron
12:22
I'm almost always going to be lower than the consensus on bat-only guys, because I think projecting future offensive performance of minor leaguers is the single hardest thing to do in baseball. I just don't think we can ever be as certain about a player's hitting abilities as people were saying they were about Montero's bat.
Erik
12:23
The Phillies' playoff odds have soared to 0.3%. Fivethirtyeight's model has them up to 11%. Seems like FanGraphs' odds don't really move much based on early season results. Do cases like the current Phillies suggest that FanGraphs
Dave Cameron
12:23
I would happily wager against anyone who actually believes the Phillies have an 11% shot of making the postseason.
STiVo
12:24
How closely correlated are OPS+ and wRC+?
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