JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/9/21

Dan Szymborski

12:01

And the chat has started, at the promised time!

Mike

12:02

I think it’s become pretty clear that Kyle Tucker is a top 30 player in baseball (5 OAA, 143 wRC+, .402 xwOBA, 1.5 BsR). When do you see him making the jump to top 20? End of 2022?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Development isn't always a neat little line!

Though 2022 seems like a good bet.

Who's Fabio?

12:02

Hey Dan - CY candidate Robbie Ray's success this season is due to his tight fitting uniform (obviously). Can the neural network explain how and why this works for Ray?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Sure, let me run this while I answer a few more questions.

Erik

12:02

Juan Soto has twice as many walks as strikeouts in the second half. How silly will his BB:K get in his best season?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

It probably won't get *that* much crazier.

12:03

Plate discipline changes, but usually not drastically. And it's usually for a much better or worse approach, not getting even crazier.

Though theoretically, he could get to Bonds levels and blow through the roof.

12:03

Should people be concerned that Ian Anderson hasn't shown much durability yet? What is his projection over the next 3-5 years?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I wouldn't worry much. Teams are being cautious and there was a whole year of not-full pitching.

John Olerud's Helmet

12:04

Howdy Mr Dan! i finally made it to one of your chats and i love you! Have a wonderful day

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Love me? That's quite suspicious.

Let's just say you only wish me generalized rather than specific harm?

John Olerud's Helmet

12:06

Oh wise one Mr Dan, so do you foresee the Blue Jays overtaking the Yanks for the divison/final wild card spot??

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I don't, but it's quite possible.

The good news for the Jays is the Yankees/Red Sox don't play each other a bunch, unless I forgot some games.

I think they have 3 games left.

12:07

So more opportunities to gain ground on either

I think which of the 3 AL East teams misses the playoffs is some theoretical triangle coin flip that isn't really possible in the real world

barney gumble

12:07

hey dan. what do you think the deal is with Gary Sanchez? is he just an ok hitter instead of a great hitter?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

That sounds about right.

He's a good hitter. He's not a great one.

I think his bat speed is a little slower than few years ago

12:10

Tyler Stephenson doesn't get much ROY love, but that's partially because of his teammate, India. Stephenson is one of those few HS catchers who seems to be MLB successful. What do you see as his ceiling?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

Won't comment on the ROY stuff since I'm voting.

Ceilings are tricky for catchers because they develop weird.

12:11

But I'm actually fairly confident at this point he's going to have a Kurt Suzuki-like career on-average, which is quite solid.

Jefferson

12:11

How hyped are you for Josh Lowe hype time? Will he get any run down the stretch or just be a pinch runner and 4th OF?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I think they'll work him into a significant number of games.

He was rocking WTF they call the International League now and Rays will trust their minor league talent.

12:12

"Triple-A East"

12:13

A lot of people ask about Logan Webb. But, please inform how you see his future ability to handle a 180-200 IP workload, and whether he now has a #1 starter ceiling.

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I think he will.

I'm stingy about calling pitchers aces because pitchers will break your heart.

12:14

But I'd say that the vast majority of 2020 is real, and I think there's still room for him to improve his changeup

12:15

What's the next season Baltimore will be over .500?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

We might all be dead.

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