JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/5/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/5/24

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Tech support

12:01

Embedding on fangraphs website is broken. Missing opening <

Dan Szymborski

12:01

Uh oh

12:03

OK, this seems to be fixed now

But I'll have to type pretty slowly since nobody's in here yet

Oddball Herrera

12:04

So I was looking at Dylan Crews' first home run. It was a homer in 30/30 parks, but had an expected BA of like .330...I understand that a 30/30 homer may not have a 1.000 xBA, but isn't it a little odd that what was apparently a no-doubter was by xBA much more often than not an out?

My last question makes me wonder what the 'worst' 30/30 ballparks home run by xBA looked like

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I've never really looked at this as I'm unconvinced by the utility

12:05

a lot of park effects are *indirect* and not just park configuration

Like in Oakland, some of those 30/30 homers would have been foul outs earlier in the PA

and it wind/temperature/humidity effects from stadium to stadium

person

12:06

how the hell is Eugenio doing this? I assume ZiPS thinks the team option is a good deal by now?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I asked AI to make a dramatization of what happens when I break the computer

person

12:08

it's ok, some of us know how to copy into the jotcast link!

Dan Szymborski

12:08

At the start, it was only eight of you!

Insert Witty Name Here

12:09

Should the MLB consider moving to a cube baseball instead of a round ball?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I would say no on that

Thought it might be ENTERTAINIGN at a lower level

12:10

Oh, I didn't even answer the Eugenio question. Sorry I'm distractable

12:11

ZiPS would have expected to be mroe likely to pick up the option than not before the season!

12:12

It's basically a $13 million decision since there's a $2 million buyout. Preseason, ZiPS had him at 2.0 WAR in 2025 with a 98 wRC+. Now it has him up to 2.6 WAR

Given where Arizona is talent wise, with a mid-80sish win roster, it's hard to not pick up the option

Tech support

12:13

How has Oneil Cruz’s bounce back from injury effected his projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Up a bit, but mroe from increased playing time than icnreased perfromance

person

12:14

the home run in x ballparks, does it assume the same projected distance everywhere including COL/AZ?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

You *can* get the statcast version that uses environmental data

but it seems to be a generalized model, not one specific to the situation

John

12:14

Your writing partner Ben did an article on WAR using RE24. Do you prefer WAR done this way and do you use this logic at all in ZIPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I don't prefer this way, personally

12:15

It's INTERESTING of course

And it wouldn't really make much sense in ZiPS

since the benefits of RE24 WAR are as a descriptor of what happened, not an estimate of future talent

Lowetide

12:16

Festa may or may not have a two-start next week. Should I risk it or run Woo for a one-start?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Really depends on whether you need quantitative or qualitative category boosts

Delusional Padres Fan

12:16

It's still early, but Jackson Merrill's batted ball profile seems like it was designed by a computer program. Hard line drive up the middle, other way, pulled high flyballs, and weak ground balls. Not sure I have anything to add besides stating that.

Ist es vorbei für mich?

12:17

What's Wrong with Corbin Burnes?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I'm nto convinced that it's not just a plip

blip

Insert Witty Name Here

12:17

Ok, pyramid ball then? I’ve had worse ideas.

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I think one of the issues is that ground balls become very weird

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