JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/28/23

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Sorry, was busy talking about the Springfield Bear Patrol

Andrew

12:03

Which minor leaguer improved their projections the most this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Dangit, why do you guys always ask questions there's no way I can answer on the fly! lol

12:04

Hold on, let me call up the September update and the preseason and see if I can crunch this super quick

12:06

OK, the minor leaguers whose 2024 projections have gone up the most (hitter)

12:08

Colt Keith, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Tyler Black, Masyn Winn, Luisangel Acuna,

12:09

for pitchers

12:11

Allan Winans, Walker Powell, James Meeker, Andre Saalfrank, Gavin Williams

(I'm using guys who STARTED the year in the minors)

Mike Cantstandya

12:11

I always look forward to your preseason ZiPS prospect rankings. (No shade on the other prospect guys!) What do you think are the odds Jackson Holliday is #1 ZiPS prospect going into 2024?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Without even looking, really frigging likely

The Oriole Bird

12:11

We should be dubious about breaking players' seasons into chunks and saying "the most recent chunk is what the player is going forward." But are there valid reasons to buy in more to this line of thinking with young, highly-touted developing players like Grayson Rodriguez?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Not really, simply because struggles, adjusting, readjusting are normal parts of pitching

Chili Sin Carne

12:12

Is there a non-zero chance that the Orioles call up Jackson Holliday or Coby Mayo in the next week?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

there's a non-zero chance that the Orioles call up the ghost of Rutherford B. Hayes in the next week

zero is zero!

The Oriole Bird

12:12

If you were building a team starting today, would you rather have Gallen + Carrol or Henderson + Rutschman?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

The latter as I've got more time to lock in those two than Gallen

Kyle

12:13

Is there a way for you to do a sensitivity analysis with ZiPS on pitcher performance depending on the velocity of his fastball? For example, Skubal seems to have taken a step forward in part by throwing 2 mph faster on his FF. What would his ERA projection look like at 94, 96, or 98mph?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I can, but I don't really have a good way of achieving it super quickly and easily

I in fact have done custom projections for teams and agents along those lines before.

12:14

For example, one agency wanted a full projection with assumed changes in a player's contact rate

and another a projection for if a player played a particular position they never had before

Chris "Mad Dog" Russo

12:14

HEY DAN. LOVE YOUR SHOW. WE WERE PROMISED ROBOT UMPS. WHERE ARE THEY?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

They're still coming! Gotta make sure they know not to kill batters

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:15

What's the least interesting thing to happen to you this week?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I got really pissed when I realized that in the MLB the Show Pennant Chase program, you can no longer do Stage 1 stuff to get points in Stage 2, so I had like 10 points worth of unfinished Moments.

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:16

We spend a lot of time on chili around here, but we don't discuss barbecue nearly as much. What's your favorite kind of barbecue?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Pork shoulder

Kikuchi's Sleep Schedule

12:16

Hey Dan, how come Yusei Kikuchi's 3 year ZiPS projections on this site are all whacky? Ages 32-34:
2023: 0.5 WAR, 4.63 FIP, 110.3 IP
2024: 0.3 WAR, 4.84 FIP, 97.7 IP
2025: 1.2 WAR, 4.16 FIP, 107.7 IP

Surely the computer doesn't think he'll magically get better at age 34? Is it just a small sample size of comparables?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

No, there's something wonky in some of the 2025 projections that I haven't figured out

on the site, not my end.

KC Pain

12:18

Cal Raleigh or Dylan Lesko better Star Wars name?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Neither.

Bligh Madris