JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/14/23

Dan Szymborski

12:00

Greetings, fair FanGraphs reader, it is a time for chats and chidings.

12:01

Also, since it was being stubborn about getting on the front page, my queue is almost nothing, so this is YOUR best time for random nonsense.

Ryan Z

12:01

Hey Dan, we are starting to see talk of the next CBA negotiations taking place and what each side wants. Do you expect we’ll have another lockout? Missed games in 2027?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

While it's too early to say exactly *what* will happen, I'm not particularly optimistic.

12:02

The players complaints heading into the last CBA are going to be basically unchanged except for minimums salaries.

The luxury tax threshold still grows slower than inflation and WAY slower than MLB revenue growth

Revenue growth in baseball is still mainly things that aren't distributed based on team quality/popularity

12:03

So poorly captured by players.

Teams still play games with service time.

The question is whether the players in a few years will be any more willing to eat serious missed time than players a couple years ago.

So who knows?

vinny

12:04

Stephenson with the save?thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Not sure

12:05

Robert Stephenson's save I presuem?

He's been really solid with the Rays

I think they just enjoy showing off that they can now fix relievers on the plane ride to Tampa

David White

12:05

Premier starting pitchers no longer reach the 7+ WAR totals of yesteryear. Has the distribution of starting pitcher WAR become more flat over time, or has the top of the distribution simply been chopped off (nobody is pitching 250 innings anymore) and distributed to middle relievers instead? If the former, is it possible that it's a better strategy to not pay for "aces" from a team-building perspective?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

Mostly chopped off since there are still lots of bad pitchers

I do think it will slow the growth of salaries in top pitchers

Zach

12:06

If Acuna gets to 40-70 HR-SB, how big of a WAR lead would Mookie have to have to take the MVP from him? It would have to be 2+ right?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I'm not sure a club has the same draw among voters that it used to

Especially a "new" club

12:07

I think if it had been 50/50, it would be a bigger deal voter wise

(I vote for NL ROY this year, so I am not an NL MVP voter)

Krusty

12:08

A pair of Mets-related questions: Ronny Mauricio sure has hit the ball really, really hard in a really, really small sample size. Brett Baty, in a bigger but still probably kinda small? sample is not hitting super well.

What's your take on them?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

The thing is that smaller sample sizes are more important when talking data like this

It really is fair to take Baty down a couple notches and bump up Mauricio

Guest

12:09

Could the Cardinals realistically cobble together enough of a pitching staff this offseason to be competitive (at least in the NLC)?

The offense is still good, but I'm less confident in its 2024 potential now that Goldschmidt and Arenado look more good than phenomenal

Dan Szymborski

12:09

They *could* but I'm not sure how aggressive they're really going to be. It's a conservative organization

Anyway halfway competent team is competitive in the NL Central though

bringbackpologrounds

12:11

I asked this to Jay a week ago: How many active players will be .300 lifetime hitters at the end of their career?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

ZiPS had Cabrera finishing at .304 at the start of the year

and nine active players finishing at least .290

Well, seven since I still projected Cano and Pujols