JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Return to

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/11/25

Dan Szymborski

12:01

mesdames et messieurs, bienvenue, nobles FanGraphiers et vénérables sabermétriciens!

Alex

12:01

Drake Baldwin has had a wonderful rookie season. What would you expect from the rest of his career? Brian McCann had a career year at 22 and never exceeded the numbers he posted that season; Big Dumper hit a stratospheric other level. Where do you see Baldwin going from here?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

As I always tell everyone: catchers are weird

Sometimes they peak weirdly, sometimes they stop developing, sometimes they just blow up late somehow

12:03

I'm not sure we know which weird way Baldwin will age, so just assume something fairly normal and prepared for Mets level tracknessy (tradgety + wackiness)

Idiotic Failson

12:03

Grisham and Bellinger are both going to be free agents. Do you think the Yankees resign one, both, or neither?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I think they may keep Grisham and lose Bellinger

Guest

12:05

Which 2026 MLB free agent reliever would you give a contract worth mrke

Dan Szymborski

12:05

mrke?

12:06

Maybe it's still too early (my brain doesn't really function before 2 PM), but if someone can tell me what that is, I'll respond

Guest

12:07

I know that ZiPS projections start to be saved for the offseason around now, but what would Caleb Ferguson being stretched out as a starter look like? Obviously he’s mainly been a single-inning guy, but he looks like a decent candidate for a kick change and has explicitly expressed an interest in starting before.

Dan Szymborski

12:07

ZiPS things fairly third-fourth startery, but it's not predicting things like knowledge of a new pitch

Guest

12:07

You think 2/10 would get it done for Devin Williams in the offseason?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

No, I think he's good enough that he either gets a bigger contract, or a really nice one year deal

Idiotic Failson

12:08

Wenceel Perez came into the year with extremely 'meh' forecasts. Given his >300 AB sample size of 120wRC+ at the dish, do you (or Zips) see him an a comfortably above average hitter now? Or is his current run at the plate a fluke?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I wouldn't say comfortably above average, but I think he's showing he's decent, especially not BABIP driven

Eli

12:08

Does ZiPS see any hope for Volpe or Wells? Or are they doomed to join the island of lost yankee prospects with Bird, Frazier, Sanchez, Andujar, etc.?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I still have hope and ZiPS does too

12:10

While I don't want to parrot Yankees reddit too much, given their insane blame of analytics for everything that doesn't work and attributing at everything that does work to ignoring analytics, Volpe *has* gotten too far into big power hitter approach; he's not Kyle Schwarber and line drives are good

And I don't WTF is going on with his defense this year

Chi Sox Chip

12:10

What do we make of Colson Montgomery?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

The power's been impressive and you can't really fake that. But you can't ignroe that the dude had nearly a half season of low 200 BA under 300 OBP in *AAA* THIS year

Sodo Mojo

12:11

If the Mariners can only choose between keeping Arozarena
or trading him and resigning Naylor this off season which one should the choose. I assume that the last year of Randy's Arbitration will be similar to the first year salary in Naylor's deal.

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I'd probably choose Arozarena

Guest

12:12

43% less awful is still a lot of awful

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Hey, I never promised I WASNT awful. Just anything going on in Twitter or BlueSky right now while you're reading this is at a MINIMUM 43% worse

LEO RIVAS

12:13

LEO RIVAS

12:13

Who's your NL rookie of the year thus far?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Just a note: I'm an NL ROY voter, and I'm not supposed to reveal my feelings on this

James

12:13

Do you know where to find data on how often the Manfred man scores in extra innings? Seems like the conversion late has been low and wondering if that lines up with reality

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I'm nto sure, I haven't really done it myself. I'm wondering if a combo of stathead queries can catch it

Pinstriped Power

12:14

Yankees are rolling with 3 young pitchers in the rotation right. Not bad for a team that has a reputation for relying on past-peak overpriced free agents. Does zips think Gil, Warren and Schlitter are long term solutions

Dan Szymborski

12:14

All 3 to an *extent*

Sodo Mojo

12:14

How much will this year effect Cal Raliegh's future zips projections. In the past it was hard to project him becoming a part time DH over the next 3 years because the bat was not strong enough. Do you think that this year will change his projections enough so he could have a Joe Mauer like transition to either 1B or DH?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

the projections are pretty solid now!

Ethan

12:14

Otherthan reading this site, what's the #1 way to understand sabermetrics better?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Simply asking questions about things and trying to answer them with investigation