JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/8/24

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Good afternoon gang!

Well, not an organized gang

Dallas

12:03

Why can’t Ke’Bryan Hayes hit more consistently, and is there any chance some team might be willing to trade for him this offseason?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

He's a decent contact hitter, but his pitch selection has always been rather dysfunctional; he's not a Javy Baez-esque flailer, but he hits a lot of rather mediocre pitches and lets a lot of good ones go by

Add in taht he has power upside and the swings in fortune can be pretty intense

White Sox FO

12:05

What "outside the box" manager should I use for the rest of the season?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

Draw a random seatholder every seventh inning stretch and make that person the manager for the next game.

Dan

12:07

Two good starts for Kikuchi after the Astros have changed his pitch usage. Were those calling this deal a fleece overreacting?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

The thing is, the trade may still *could* have been more than what was needed to get him

12:09

In any case, I wasn't quite as negative about the trade as some others were. I don't like the prospects quite as much and I liked Kikuchi more (which is why I included him in my fantasy trade piece this year)

Though I didn't give the Blue Jays as much in prospects

Datt Mamon

12:12

Are you in any way bullish on Gavin Stone moving forward (meaning next season, really)? He seems to have hit a bit of a wall.

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I mean, he's certainly not *bad*

but he seems to have problems finishing off batters on two strikes

12:13

(and this is purely from my feelings, I can't really dig too deep in the context of a quick chat)

Matt

12:13

There’ve been lots of complaints about the dead ball impacting offensive production this year. Do you think that’s true? And if so, how does ZIPS account for the dead ball when projecting numbers for future seasons?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I think it's very likely, but I don't have sufficient information to say it's true. Unfortunately, there's not much to do; MLB has no transparency on their ball construction and I have no way of knowing what offense will be like in the future beyond what it is in recent years

Insert Witty Name Here

12:17

Curious to know how much clout you have in the baseball world. Like if you had the best idea that would save baseball, do you have contacts where you could make a call to the commissioner and pitch your idea?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Figuring out one's own reputation is an impossible task to approach objectively. My gut tells me no, but I can't be positive about that.

12:20

I'm not even sure what my reputation is if you just polled the smaller analytics community. I *suspect* people like my work and perhaps dislike me personally, but I don't really knwo that

Guest

12:20

CJ Abrams laughs in the face of pitch selection, turning Birdsong into Wormcophany

Dan Szymborski

12:20

heh

Phil

12:20

Tony La Russa is waiting by the phone.

Eddie

12:20

Kind of obvious NYY should be going Soto Judge 1,2 but we know that won't happen. If they have to bat 2nd and 3rd, would you flip them at this point?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Given how little different lineups are, I'd basically put players where they are comfortable unless the idea is ludicrous

12:21

Like if Martin Maldonado feels most comfortably leading off, I do not do that

AARON JUDGE!!

12:21

How much has helped his rest of career projections this year by showing that 2022 was not a fluke?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Quite a bit, but age and injury history still kind of hold down those numbers

12:22

I'd vote for him for the Hall *right now* though, based on his insane peak

12:23

He was only 208th in HRs through 20s, which tends to keep down the career totals

McGraw45

12:25

All time favorite minor leaguer? Hank McGraw (Tug's brother) is a legend in my family, who all say he was better than Tug but teams wouldn't promote him for being a hippie

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Luke Easter. After his MLB career ended in his late 30s, he basically said "screw that" and dominated the International League for nearly another *decade*

Guest

12:25

Is Benintendi's future ZiPS projection now negative for the remainder of his career?

Guest

12:27

if Joe Ryan makes his next start how many hats will Thomas Woodrooffe's descendants eat

Dan Szymborski

12:27

(hang on for Benintendi)

In fairness, he didn't really eat his hat, just a hat-shaped cake, IIRC

You should never make bets, brags, or boasts that you can't feasibly fulfill.

12:28

Like, I said I'd eat Cincinnati chili if Kyle Nelson didn't finish the season with an ERA under four. I did not say I'd eat a 2011 Toyota Corolla.

Justin

12:28

In terms of a making it a less extreme environment, I always wonder if the Rockies would have been better building Coors Field with closer fences and a smaller outfield. Do you think the tradeoff between more homers and a lower Babip would be worth it?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I'm honestly not sure what the best approach is.

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