JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/27/20

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/27/20

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Dan Szymborski

12:04

And welcome to the last SzymChat of August and the first-half of the season?

"half" lol

sad

1

RMR

12:04

White Sox second in BaseRuns. Are they actually like really good?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I think they're a good team! The highs are very good. There's a lot to like in the starting lineup except for RF

EE still could get going

And Danny Medwick has made things interesting!

(I know that's not his name, it's an inside joke)

RMR

12:06

Kyle Tucker going nuts over the last week or so and now seems to have full PT locked up. Feels like it's all coming together for him. What do you think the stat line looks like going forward?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I've certainly been watching his line given how much ZiPS has liked him over the years!

My physiological need to look smart tends to overwhelm all my other needs in life.

Big Joey

12:08

Please make me feel better about benching Ian Anderson yesterday :(

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Debuts are always risky!

You still have a good three seasons until Aqualung.

RMR

12:09

What do you make of Jake Cronenworth? Obviously the underlying data looks good, but he's not going to keep up this level of hitting. How do you think he settles in? Could he be a 120+ wRC+ guy with a strong OBP, like 15-20 HR and double digit steals?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

120 is still a little spicy for me, but I do think there's a Zobristian upside.

12:10

ZiPS thinks he "should" have a .344 BABIP based on his advanced data in 2020, which is good

12:11

I like Profar, but it's hard to wait for him with the Crone sprinkling deadly nightshade

OddBall Herrera

12:11

The only thing I'm missing to complete a row on my 2020 Disaster Bingo card is Yellowstone erupting. Fingers crossed!

(Full disclosure - I am in the "You will be vaporized before it even makes the news" radius of Yellowstone so the joke's on me)

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Yellowstone is a good "classic" disaster that would fit well into 2020.

RMR

12:13

Can Aaron Civale go full Kluber? The FB is very blah, but the offspeed stuff is beautiful.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

There's an argument he already has.

His control this year's been unreal. ZiPS has shifted a whole half-run in his outlook already

Big Joey

12:14

Do you think Clevdog gets traded?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

No.

12:16

I think Plesac's more likely to be traded than Clevinger. Maybe after 2021

RMR

12:16

Are JD Mart's struggles as simple as not having access to video? Or is this an age related decline taking hold? Or both?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I doubt it's that big a deal. I think there's a combo of aging and just havin ga bad month.

RMR

12:16

Can Tim Anderson keep up the kind of contact quality that we're seeing this year? He made a jump last year to decent, but he's taken it up another notch so far this year.

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Not quite at this level, but Hurricane Tim has taken a trajectory that sent him over hotter water.

RMR

12:18

Good lord Hiura is whiffing a ton. I seem to recall he was more hit power coming up. Obviously seems like he started trading some contact for power last year, but this is extreme. Do you think he can find some kind of equilibrium?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

The drop in contact is highly worrying. He's not even swinging at more pitches more a higher percentage of out of zone pitches.

RMR

12:21

How will ZiPS handle a guy like Kopech who is skipping the season for non-injury reasons? Does it have the ability to differentiate between a season lost to injury and one for non-injury reasons?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Yes, ZiPS treats non-injury layoffs differently than injury layoffs (and TJ diffrent than shoulders, etc)

This year is creating interesting challenges.

OddBall Herrera

12:21

If the Yankees succeed in trading their spare parts (Andujar/Frazier) for Clevenger I'm flipping the table and switching over to following professional Kabbadi instead.

trophy

2

v2micca

12:21

Thus far, all of the Braves celebrated pitching prospects have managed to produce only 2 major league rotation players and one is out for the year. Par for the course with pitching, or issues with Atlanta scouting and player development?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

It takes a while for it all to sort out.

And I don't think it's fair to qualify Soroka being out of rthe year. He *is* a major league player and it's not the player development fault that he's out given the nature of his injury!

Sonny

12:23

Kyle Tucker seems to be solidifying his place in the Astros core. How much of a sample does ZiPS need to see before it believes some of the hard edges have been sanded off his early issues?

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