JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/18/22

Dan Szymborski

12:02

And we are live!

Or possibly dead and this is a very odd afterlife.

Sampa

12:02

The best part about being a padres fan is that we will all be dead someday

James

12:02

What does Zips think about Verlander's next contract? Will anyone give him 3 years?

Andrew

12:04

Why are the orioles putting Gunnar Henderson at 1st base?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Oops, sorry didn't answer yet lol

On Henderson, presumably it's just to get him experience there. There's no indication that the Norfolk lineup today is going to be a thing going forward

12:05

ZiPS says 2/60 on Verlander.

It's simply refusing to give him three years. I'm not sure if anyone will.

But it's possible.

Depends what the per-year is

AmericanDragon

12:06

If you had to use a baseball player's name as your ring name, who would you choose?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

That's easy, I said his name on twitter last night!

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cracki001--...

The Moonlight Graham of the Cocoa Indians: Crackin

Jeff

12:06

Where have you recently seen ZiPS consistently miss the mark (if at all)? Are there non-random error trends you've recently tried to correct for?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Sadly, nowhere.

Those kinds of things are lower hanging fruit and it would be nice to have errors correlated somewhere.

But errors for players and teams are sadly random.

Except for a couple things.

You can have bias simply by the league offense being very different than you project

12:08

And teams in a competitive position to make deadline trades have a higher error

I'm trying to figure out how to deal with the latter with a generalized model for team quality to midseason team improvement

Without it being a horrifying mess, which is much easier said than done.

12:09

Predicting league offense? Beats the hell outta me.

James

12:09

If Dusty is still batting Yuli 2nd in a month, will the front office have to step in and keep him from putting out insane lineups in the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

Honestly while I'm not involved in any of their conversations about this, I'd be they see lineup stuff as small enough potatoes to not get into a fight

12:11

As long as Dusty keeps the team going the right direction and doesn't suddenly decide that Framber Valdez is going to throw 120 pitches a start, they'll likely not sweat some lineup inefficiency

I'd bet, not I'd be

Now, they may strongly *suggest*

Lucas

12:12

Should the Braves just release Marcell Ozuna?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I think at some point, but not right *now*. Gwinnett outfield is not particularly noteworthy

Guest

12:13

You mentioned last time that Tatis' intent to cheat the game is the most damning piece of this saga - and might negatively influence his hall chances. Do you feel the same way about the '17 Astros? And Altuve?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I think *intent* is the big deal here.

And Hall voters I believe will take that into consideration.

I don't even think the Astros really got much, if any, significant benefit from the trash can

but they *did* flout the rules to *try* and get an advantage.

Slew

12:16

Gun to your head: Why is a gun to your head?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Probably something I said

James

12:16

I don’t really care about steroid use, allow it and tightly regulate it whatever. With Tatis I’m way more concerned with the stories about his decision making process and the gaslighting from his family’s camp.

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