JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/15/24

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Thank you those in attendance for fulfilling your legally required duties to appear here.

Justin

12:02

Hi Dan, what are your thoughts on the Victor Robles extension?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I don't think it's unreasonable for anyone

He's hit a lot better last two seasons, but in a limited role. But there's certainly a good deal of risk

12:04

but theres' upside too. People forget that Robles was once one of the elite prospects and had a *very* solid rookie season

But there's downside too since he has like a low .600s OPS since COVID

Nick

12:07

Why do all of the CFs have a lower DEF on the site than their FRV? Shouldn't the defensive adjustment be positive?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Hmm, that does seem a little odd

12:09

My guess since I can't really dig into it in two minutes

is that we recenter average to 0 in defensive projections

12:10

err measurements, not projections

defensive measurements

12:11

Like take a basically all CF

liek Kiermaier

he's at 8 FRV

if you look down at value, fielding is only 5.7

12:12

The average CF in FRV is an above-average CF

and taht 2.3 run adjustments looks about right in recentering it

12:14

and it looks like LFs have a slightly better Fielding down in the value table

than than their FRV

which also jibes

Sodo Mojo

12:14

Thoughts on the Victor Robles extension, I know the current form is not sustainable but is there enough actual progress there to warrant the small bet?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Yup

tnst3b

12:14

Does Tyler O'Neill currently have both of his legs attached?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

It would be ideal. Not sure if they figured out what cause dhte infection

Refugee

12:15

What do you make of spikes in performance (e.g., guys with a career ~25% K% cutting it in half all of a sudden)? I assume ZiPS requires a lot of data before it's willing to take a big turn?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Yes, though less so in something like K% which has real changes quicker

12:17

When ZiPS season-to-season calculates a baseline rate just from the line as a starting point, it weight those changes much more quickly

Like in 2025 projections, assuming all things being equal otherwise

12:18

the initial K% rate in the basic line baseline will have 2024's strikeout rate as 136% more important than 2023's striekout rate for a hitter

but for HR rate, it's only 71% more important and 1B/2B only 38% more important

Ethan Holliday

12:19

How has my brother's ZiPS projection changed after he's looked much more comfortable at the plate in his 2nd major league stint? And how confident are you he'll be the 2025 Opening Day starting 2B?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Not as much as you'd think because these are all small samples!

He's been right on track

Remember, ZiPS wasn't projecting crazy performance immediately

12:20

Though it was JUST enough uncertainty that if I did my zips top 100 prospects on May 1st, he would have dropped to #2 behind James Wood

12:21

assuming Yamamoto is off the zips top 100 at this point

Not the Lunch Guy

12:21

Favorite restaurant in Cincinnati? Where would you recommend for visitors?