JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/13/20

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Hello chatters and chatees

Joe

12:03

The Orioles will win 28 or more games. True or false.

Dan Szymborski

12:03

EVER? True.

Ben

12:03

Kyle Hendricks is good at pitching baseballs

Dan Szymborski

12:04

After facing his curve and change, Hendricks fastballs look like Jordan Hicks

Well, Jordan Hicks fastballs. They don't actually look like Jordan Hicks

12:05

Though that would be a really effective changeup: making batters not swing because they think a dude is running to the plate really fast.

LFC Mike

12:05

Greetings Dan. Assume you are starting a franchise today, not a Skyline Chile franchise mind you, but an actual baseball franchise. To start your team: Soto, Acuna, Tatis Jr. or Mr. X (parts unknown, weight unknown).

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Probably Tatis because position.

12:05

gotta love Dustin May. I’m a little more uncertain for fantasy. Is his stuff conducive to lots of strikeouts at some point? He seems to not have been a huge k/9 guy at any point yet

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I think the strikeouts will eventually come, though I'd really like to see a real change in his arsenal

Chris

12:06

Dan let's get this dance over with so we can both move past it. I'm going to say "Kyle Lewis is awesome" you are going to say "August". Glad we could do this again this week

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I can't anymore because the season's nearly a third over!@

12:07

We're almost in June. April is over.

But again, .438 BABIP

12:09

Now there's evdience that he can support a high BABIP

Based on his season so far, ZiPS has his zBABIP for 2020 at .351

12:10

But knock off 80 points of BABIP and he's a 258/325/434 guy with meh defense.

Whicih is better than expectations, but a little more normal

OddBall Herrera

12:10

Feeeed Greg Biiiiird, tuppence a bag, tuppence, tuppence, tuppence a bag. Feeeed Greg Biird, that's what she cries, while overhead Greg Birds fill the skies.

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Greg Birdman!

Jason N

12:11

Is Tatis > Acuña official?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I love Acuña, but I would have taken Tatis before the season

But this is a why not both thing

See! You! Later!

12:12

Do you think the Tigers should/will call up Mize after their hot start?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I think if he doesn't get some real starts this year, the Tigers have failed on thsi point.

Eric

12:12

what is wrong with griffin canning? Shouldn’t he be pitching better with his swinging strike rate being so high?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Hard to say as I haven't dug deeply into Canning. I can pull up his zSO though!

12:16

ZiPS only thinks he's 1.5 Ks down from where he "should" be

12:17

The swinging strike rate is above-average, but his contact numbers haven't been

Daniel

12:18

is Jon Gray actually good?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Yes. And he's been good.

James

12:18

Updated probability of a .400 hitter? Favorites?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Haven't done, but Blackmon has some things going in his favor.

ZiPS is already projecting a 50/50 endpoint of .378 for him.

12:19

BABIP across the league being way down -- and it's down for established players too -- has really hurt the .400 odds across the board

Jimmy G

12:19

How on earth are the Cardinals going to finish the season? They have played 5 games!

Dan Szymborski

12:19

They're not.

I don't know exactly what MLB is going to do, but I'd be surprised if the Cardinals play more than 50 games.

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