JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/20/18

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Matt

12:03

Who is less likely to break my heart this week - Bumgarner at Mets, or Pivetta in TOR?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Pivetta mainly. The Mets are sadder.

Dbo

12:03

Whoa, new chat time. Did Carson finally decide to have two Szym chats, one for food and one for baseball?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

As Travis has moved on to 538, I reclaimed my old, classic time slot.

When Travis came aboard, it was important to introduce him to the FanGraphs audience that may not have been as familiar with his work as mine, plus since I was only an auxiliary fangraphser, it didn't make sense to let me keep the sweeter time slot over a paid employee!

Pie

12:05

How does ZiPs view Kopech ROS/next few years?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

ZiPS is very amusing with Kopech. He doesn't have anything resembling a normal curve, it's actually bimodal - ZiPS thinks it more likely he's a superstar or horrible than just OK.

The Ghost of Dan's Grandma

12:05

Come give your grandma a kiss

Dan Szymborski

12:06

Why can't my ghost grandmother come here? And when did she learn to use the internet?

tedthrilliams

12:06

what percent chance would you give oakland of taking the divison? the projections say roughly 10% which seems insanely low to me esp. considering the astros have a tough schedule to close out the year

Dan Szymborski

12:06

Maybe 15%, but the Astros do have the stronger roster.

Vslyke

12:07

Do you see Cedric Mullins as a long-term starter for the Orioles? If so, does that say more about Mullins or the Orioles?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I'm not convinced he is, but rebuilding teams should give players like Mullins the opportunity to defy the critics.

Doug

12:07

So the Angels are .500-ish and have Mike Trout for two more years. Assuming they can’t extend him, which is the better strategy: trade him now while his value is still extremely high or go all in on these next two years?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Go all-in simply because I don't envision a scenario in which they actually trade Trout.

Matt

12:08

What is ZiPS's projection likely to be for Vlad Jr & Bo Bichette in 2019?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Let' snot leak all the goodies!

Dbo

12:09

I can't believe the Orioles were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs last night, I thought they were gonna turn it around and make a run, ya know?

Jim Leyland Palmer

12:09

Mr. Dan, is Walker Buehler a budding Ace? He has been phenomenal of late

Dan Szymborski

12:10

He obviously has that potential!

12:11

ZiPS certainly likes him

Stale

12:11

What do you make of what Odor's been doing this last month or two? So many ups and down in his career so far. Which is the real Odor we're going to see in the future?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I haven't dug into the month-by-month splits for plate discipline stuff, but he looks like he's been quite a bit better. Though it could be confirmation bias.

12:13

I t hink in the end, he'll be about what we thought him to be on average, a lowish OBP 2B with a big power upside.

He's also the subject of one of my favorite WWE2K videos I've made.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/997494190899695616

Dbo

12:14

What is a worse crime, putting chili in your chili or putting chocolate in your chili?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Wait, what?

Kevin Pillar

12:14

Plz help Gibbons wont let me out of the clubhouse

Bing Russell

12:14

Will Danny Glover ever coach in the majors again?

Jose

12:14

Should Clayton Kershaw opt out?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

CamdenWarehouse

12:14

is there a blood feud between baseball writers who have cats and those that have dogs? Are you and Calcaterra the leaders of the former?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I like dogs too!

I don't like waking up at 6 AM to go for a walk though.

Dbo

12:15

Which of the NL Division races do you see being undetermined the latest in the season?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

NL East

Bork

12:15

The Orioles are a major league baseball team

Dan Szymborski

12:15

ish

12:15

4-game sweep at home cause for concern as a Braves fan? It seems our major weaknesses were exposed.

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James

3:53

Does Ohtani win the ROY if he is able to make a few quality starts next month?

Bing Russell

3:51

What is your top ten players for a start up Dynasty league

The Bryce is Right

4:01

Harper to the Phillies before August 31 boosts the world series chances by ____%?

Seattle

4:09

Why are we so cursed?

C.J. Cron

4:10

Why am I not a Rockie? Fill a brutal need, not too expensive, not a rental and Rays clearly have no regular spot for me.

silvpak

4:15

has taillon quietly made the leap this year? absent two starts in april and one in may (where he still went six innings and k'd eight, despite allowing six earned), he hasn't allowed more than three earned in ANY start this entire year, has a sub 3.00 era, and nearly eight and a half k/9. given archer at the top of the rotation and that his various dings early in his career have actually served to not overload his arm/innings until maturity, i think we're looking at a decade of #1/#2 performance.

Over Here

4:16

Boston needs a lh reliever. Can they get one via waivers?

Bork

4:16

Think Donaldson gets moved? If not, will he even get a QO?

dave in slc

4:16

are any of miami outfield sierra, galloway, or dean worth spending $5 of my remaining $11 of faab money on to replace pence as a flier they could be something or sit tight w the $ for now?

AKA22

4:16

Any relievers left in the August trade market you would go after if you were the Braves GM? They still seem weak in the pen.

Dbo

4:17

Cincinnati chili is with cinnamon and sometimes dark chocolate, there's also Mexican chocolate chili

AKA22

4:19

Dusty Baker retroactive manager of the year 2017?

lee

4:20

The plan in LA seemed to be handing C over to Barnes (or Ruiz, or Smith in a year or two) after Grandal's contract expires, but with Grandal a top 3-4 catcher and Barnes's bat going all Chris Davis on us, what do you think the next 3 years of Dodger catching looks like?

$11 Worth of Taco Bell

4:20

This offseason how many years do the O’s give Trevor Cahill?

Jeffy

4:20

The pitcher after the "Opener" is the "Follower"

Bort

4:21

Any players come to mind that you'll be looking to buy low on next year?

$11 Worth of Taco Bell

4:22

Which AAAA hitter has the best chance of breaking out into at least an average MLB player if given the chance?

Jose Iglemirez

4:22

Ideas on who the second PTBNL in the Fiers trade will be? Better or worse than Blackwood?

Marshall

4:22

Suppose you wanted to trade Kershaw (current ERA+ of 160, but likely only 150 innings for the year) for a pitcher with 200+ innings. What's the lowest ERA+ you would accept for the pitcher you get back?

jake

4:23

is this the new amed rosario?

Chuck

4:23

How do you feel about Nathan Eovaldi going forward for the Red Sox? He's had a few great starts and a few not-so-great starts so far.

Better career?

4:27

Brian Anderson or Harrison Bader?

Josh Nelson

4:27

What is ZiPS projecting for Michael Kopech in 2018?

Justin

4:29

You think JD beats Betts? But Betts is so much bett(s)er!

CamdenWarehouse

4:30

didn't you have that mammal question two weeks ago?

4:33

Re: ad bars during games, other sports have begun to use this as a way to keep viewers watching during "downtime." I've seen football broadcasts show a live feed of coaches, players, etc alongside commercials. Win-win.

AKA22

4:33

You heard it here first - DeGrom for Cy Young and Scherzer for MVP. COULD IT HAPPEN??

David

4:33

Isn't a long reliever a failed starter anyways??

All Cats Are Beautiful

4:34

What's the r^2 between the current fWAR formula and a perfect measurement of a player's value? Where is the most room for improvement? Defense? Intangibles?

Moltar

4:36

Forget not marketing Mike Trout enough, why don't more people know about Mookie Betts? He plays for a first place Red Sox team! He's young and talented and fun! I'm an NL fan and I feel like I hear him mentioned once or twice a month at most.

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

4:37

Do the O's make the playoffs again before or after Mars colonization?

The Shell

4:39

How come no one talks about those old projection systems like Marcel and Oliver anymore

Andrew

4:39

The NL award season is going to be interesting. With a weak field for MVP, I've heard talks of deGrom/Scherzer this year, and not to mention the Cy Young race. How likely is it that the voters start breaking from tradition and give deGrom a shot for one or both awards?

CubFan

4:40

You a fan of Taylor Ward ros, 2019?

Tom

4:41

NL chapter, eh? Will you give Matt Carpenter a good look despite his slow start?

CubFan

4:43

Not that it's overly important in the grand scheme of of things but who's catching on the south side of Chicago in 2019, Castillo or Narvaez?

Mark

4:43

Is Keegan Akin an option for the Os rotation next year? Leading Eastern league in ERA and strikeouts

Al Avila

4:44

Should Tigers fans trust me

Jim

4:44

Daniel Murphy a good fit for the Yankees with Didi out?

HappyFunBall

4:45

The pitcher who comes in after the "opener" is the "headliner". Just like with a rock concert.

Dan's Parents

4:48

We have never taken it seriously.

David

4:48

If you were the braves, and only have the funds to lock up 1 player to a long term contract who would you give it to? Freeman or Acuna?

Dusty

4:49

When you say a lot of questions need to be answered about Wander Javier, do you mean by me about him or about him that he has to prove?

Lunar verLander

4:50

In-season turnaround HAS to go to Kole Calhoun...right?

Confuzled

4:50

When minor league players have a projection that only has like 1 PA, is that predicting what they would do if in the majors currently? How seriously should I be looking at those?

Jim

4:50

Thoughts on Mike King from the Yankees?

David

4:51

Will Julio Urias ever pitch like he did as a prospect?

Fan

4:51

Projections like the Dodgers in terms of playoff success. I don't. Do you?

Hello

4:51

When should the Mets start worrying about Rosario?

Matt

4:52

Dan. Save me.

Bob

4:53

Jose Peraza, still only 24
2017
518 PA, .259-.297-.324-.622
2018
528 PA, .292-.334-.412-.745
Thoughts on his future outlook ?

Bort

4:56

Does Austin Barnes have a starting job next year?

Joey Bart

4:57

Should the Tigers have picked me #1 overall?

Oyster Burns

4:58

think gleyber is still hurt or slumping? the hip stuff can be scary

NC GO STL

4:59

Harrison Bader's upside?

David

5:00

How crazy is this offseason going to be?

Dbo

5:01

Nashville deserves an expansion team

Hello

5:01

Great, then should Jeff McNeil be the Mets' 2019 starting 2B?

Bread Gardner

5:01

So what did ZiPS say about the number of alien babes Kirk and Riker will sleep with?

David

5:03

Charlotte!

James

5:03

that was quick

Bread Gardner

5:04

Which one (current or historical) major leaguer would you want on your beer league softball team?

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

5:04

Re: $300 per Orioles run scored, whiskey per run allowed, what if the rules were that the moment you became incapacitated/unable to keep drinking, you'd forfeit the rest of the season? How many games do you think you could make it? Could you last through a grand slam? What if a three-run homer happened later in the inning? You could die before you earned a single dollar!

Matt

5:05

What about great GMs as flawless clams? Sans-sand, if you will.

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