JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/1/24

Dan Szymborski

12:02

And awaaaay we go!

Ryan

12:02

Do you think the Padres have a shot of running down the Dodgers? The offense is humming and that bullpen looks insanely filthy.

Dan Szymborski

12:03

A shot? Yes. But it's an uphill fight. Dodgers are an excellent team. The Padres need to not just be really good, they have to have the Dodgers hit some of their swingy injury risk in their high-end talent

ZiPS has Dodgers at like 77% this morning, and I think I'd take the over on what the true mystical probability is that we can't actually tell

Sam

12:03

ZiPS seems to really like Danny Jansen to the Sox. Is it because his swing is well suited to Fenway? Similarly in the preseason ZiPS projections for 2024, Jansen's full year projection is with the Red Sox now - is this projecting him playing half his games at Fenway?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

No, the site doesn't reformulate the old projections

Kenshin Kawakami

12:04

Soler moved the ZIPS postseason needle more than I expected for the Braves. I know that’s largely due to the sub replacement level corner outfielders they’ve been running out, but is it wrong to be skeptical of Soler when he has to get back to playing outfield?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

You're not wrong to be skeptical. But I *did* project Soler as a corner outfielder, which takes a hit

There's risk, but Atlanta's outfield is TERRIBLE this year

12:05

0.7 combined WAR. And that's with Acuña's rather disappointing-for-him 1.1 WAR

Harry

12:05

There’s been a lot of discussion this year about the DH and 1B penalties, and it seems likely to be reevaluated at some type of Fangraphs summit this offseason. Do you have an opinion on the positional adjustments as they currently stand/do

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I've been one pushing for an adjustment for a couple years. But we're talking a few runs here and there. It'll only be a real difference over long careers

DH is one I've been pushing for since before I even worked for FG!

Like mgl, every way I look at DH vs. 1B, there's a small penalty from sitting on your ass that every DH has to face

12:07

it's like a really mild version of the PH penalty

Dallas

12:07

I’m not sure if it’s fair to say the Pirates have soured on Henry Davis, however between Endy Rodriguez returning and Joey Bart’s emergence would it be fair to say they may trade him this offseason in a baseball trade?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

It *coudl* happen for sure, but there's not a lot of trade value there. I think the Pirates are still figuring out how everything sorts out

and I doubt the team is completely sold on Joey Bart turning his career 180 after...fewer than 180 PA

Crone Zone

12:08

If you had Michael King in fantasy, would you hold because he’s been awesome or try and sell for a comparable asset because he’s been awesome and the number of innings he’ll throw this year scares you?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

It ALWAYS depends on the trade

12:09

Every player has a price you'd trad ethem at

John

12:09

As far as Red Sox prospects go, I think Kristian Campbell has take on the title of most polarizing now that Rafaela has graduated. What does ZiPS think of this year in the minors this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

ZiPS likes it very much! He'll have a pretty beefy projection next year for sure

Harry

12:10

On their respective contracts, would you rather have Michael Harris II or Corbin Carroll?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I think Carroll, but it's really up for debate

Carroll's probable upside is arguably balanced by the extra 35 million or whatever

M’s Fan

12:11

Would the trade deadline have been more exciting without the 3rd wildcard?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Probably not

Anyone fighting for a third wildcard is likely also fighting for a second wildcard

JamesStirling

12:11

Hi Dan, Will Feddie and Pham thrive in St Louis or just be average?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I think they'll be fine, but unexciting

Datt Mamon

12:12

What are the odds that Eloy stays healthy and figures it out with the Orioles?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Pretty low, I think

Think the O's are just taking a scratch-and-win

Kip

12:12

Have you played Eldin Ring?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I actually have not gotten around to Elden Ring

12:13

one of the problems is there are so many things to play and I'm a 46-year-old man with a full-time job so I can't play everythign I want

Ralph

12:13

Once he's been able to reacclimate off the injury, should Dominguez be taking those Verdugo at bats?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Ideally, I would

12:14

Verdugo's basically a stopgap starter. When you don't have the gap to stop, he should be farther back in the fridge

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