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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/3/25

Dan Szymborski

12:02

It's time for a Szymborski chat
The man is sarcastic and fat
He'll zing with a smirk
and plug his own work
and pretend that ZiPS WAR is a fact

Guest

12:02

Do we need a better way of calculating free agent contracts? Devers contract may be underwater but I would rather pay devers 8 240 (what's rest on his contract) than vlad 14 500 or whatever insane number Kyle Ticker is going to get. Seems like a Devers would be the cheapest way to get talent / WAR on your team

Dan Szymborski

12:03

It's complicated philosophically!

And we tend to go through cycles. There's a period where teams spend a lot and then there's regret and everyone starts getting stingy for a year or two

Endy Chavez

12:04

Is Brandon Nimmo intentionally trading walks for home runs? Should he trade back?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Honestly, his swing rate bump is fairly small, I'm not sure sure how conscious a decision is made

J.P. Tootblan IV, Esq.

12:05

The Cubs had 3 runners erased on the bases 2 days ago (runner out trying to score on a WP and 2 guys picked off at first) meaning the pitcher for the Guardians completed the inning without getting any batters out. Is there a more embarrassing way for a team to squander 3 outs?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

You should see some of my games of MLB the Show when a runner is being really conservative and I mess up with the controls

dylan

12:06

What kind of return would Felix merit if the Os sent him out at the deadline this year? Not that I want that to happen, but it feels like he may be the highest value piece to move for them

Dan Szymborski

12:06

He'd certainly fetch a pretty good prospect, but it wouldn't be some crazy haul. I dont't hink theO's are doing it

Mad Hatter

12:06

Why is a raven like a writing desk?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

They both are involved in writing angry letters to the Baltimore Sun?

12:09

(actually, I have no idea if any Baltimore Ravens have written angry letters to the Baltimore Sun, but it would fit the joke)

Even though Lewis Carroll had no idea what a Baltimore Raven is

Look At This Sotograph

12:09

I've been wondering if predictive ERA stats don't work as well for starting pitchers with only 2 pitches, like Ben Brown and Brandon Pfaadt.

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I haven't noticed that; generally a guy who has problems with limited repertoire will have it reflect here

Tree

12:10

Who was the best baseball player of all time

Dan Szymborski

12:10

Not touching that one!

Bubba

12:10

Matthew Boyd is good now? What's he doing?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

He was good when he was healthy last year too!

Dan 2.0

12:12

Does chase rate only include when you swing and miss, or is it still a chase if you make contact outside of the zone? What if someone truly likes hitting a pitch in a certain place outside of the zone?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

If we're talking statcast, it's swings outside the zone

And the latter is certainly possible - if so, they'll tend to have a predictive higher contact rate against those pitches and hti those more effectively

Dan 2.0

12:14

Have any pitchers really made an effort to throw curve balls at the top of the zone? Every time I see it happen and the pitch is high enough it's taken for a strike or it gets an awkward swing. It just has to be really high.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

The problem is that a mistake at the top of the zone with a curve will end up being a home run derby pitch

Paul

12:15

I picked up Jason Junk this week which I thought I would regret and ended up getting a decent start last night. Do I keep him up for his Monday start against Cincy?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Call me skeptical

Thomas Bayes

12:15

Do you have a favorite statistical model?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Not really

polinating from my ipad

12:16

is tyler freeman the prototype the rockies should draft instead of tall lumbering prospects who strike out all the time?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Coors Field does give the Rockies a vested interest in good-contact hitters

but power too. BABIP is naturally VERY high in COors

But you do want them to have more power

12:18

in other words, trade SOME power for contact, but not a ton. Don't go Willy Taveras

Oaktown Blues

12:18

Have you ever tried playing Beat the Streak? Do you think you could use ZiPS to win it?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I haven't. I'm not really a gambler personality wise. I'll place prop bets where ZiPS sees a big EV+.

12:20

Note that I *never* bet on any NL award props any longer since there's always a good chance I'll vote on one of them

polinating from my ipad

12:20

would you promote Karros to AAA now? Does Zips love McCade Brown as much as I love his stats?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

If Karros is healthy, then yes. He's not super young, so no reason to be cautious

12:21

I'll have to run McCade Brown

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