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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/24/25

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I'm here, sorry, got caught up in Hulk Hogan news!

Justin

12:12

Hi Dan, what is it about someone like Brandon Marsh that allows him to consistently have a high BABIP?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Solidly above average speed, while he's not a grounder machine, he hits a lot of *hard* grounders

Mitchell

12:14

Seems every article on deadline trade candidates includes Ryan McMahon. I get the guy packs a good glove, but he hits like a second division 2nd baseman, and that’s playing half his games in Denver. Why do we think he’s a desirable asset for a team trying to win?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Theres' the hope he got his crap together after an AWFUL April. He's actually been solid since

Ryan

12:14

What lower level prospects are you intrigued by who no one is talking about?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I'm not sure you can really call him a prospect, but I'm kind of surprised the Royals showed so little interest in Cam Devanney, who basically has had the same career arc as Whit Merrifield did.

and to not even look at him significant before trading him for *Adam Frazier*?

bringbackpologrounds

12:16

If (when) Eugenio Suarez joins the 400 HR club, where would he rank out of the roughly 60 members? He's had a wonderful career, hopefully he keeps up the mashing.

Dan Szymborski

12:18

He'd definitely be pretty low. 46 of the 59 400-HR guys have 50 WAR and he would have hard time getting there

Lowe Distribution System

12:18

In your prospect review article, it looks like a strong majority had their projections get worse since the start of the season. Is that just because we're looking at the prospects who started with the best projections so of course it's easier for them to decline than improve?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

The biggest part of it is that the top 100 of the ZiPS prospect list has just had a particularly bad year!

12:19

There were significantly more improvers than decliners in the 101-200 tranche

And I look to find a reason to believe

12:19

Who are your 1-3 White Sox players who have improved their future fWAR ZIPS projections since preseason, and do you have any increased optimism for improvement based on 2025 progress over hopefully reaching the absolute bottom of the barrel in. 2024.

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Well, Shane Smith for one

12:20

He's probably my biggest one

ransofast

12:20

have you tried the innovative new versions of Skyline chili? Notably the Skyline dip or breakfast chilitos?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

There are innovative new ways to get hit in the groin with a ball, but that doesn't mean I want to try those either

Mi Nombre

12:21

The Brewers have won at least 86 games (.531 W%) every full season since 2017 for a cumulative .557 W% over 1,195 games from 2017-24. So far this year they have an MLB best .598 W%. Playoff Odds sees them as a .513 W% team rest of season. Does ZiPS have a rosier outlook? Where would your human brain computer estimate their rest of season W%?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

ZiPS is rosier, but has still missed low last several years. The weird thing is that the individual player projections aren't actually undershooting the Brewers as a group. It *my* brain that's screwing up; they simply do a better job getting their best performers on the field than I expec tthem to

Tampa Fred

12:22

As I understand it the difference between bWAR and fWAR for P is that the former uses ERA and the later uses FIP. Could you list one positive and one negative for each calculation? Has there ever been any attempt to get the two organizations to agree upon its calculation?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Well, they're both good measures, but they both have similar misses, made in the interest of interpretability.

bwar *over*describes pitcher contributions as for simplicity, it has a very naive application of team defensive performance to individual pitchers

12:24

while fwar *under*describes by eliminating BIP, which while very small, still has *some* value

and these tradeoffs aren't made without reason, but to keep what WAR measures are saying easier to understand

I don't think you'll see a compromise

Jeff

12:24

Which, if any, of the Statcast era stats have changed how you do your projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

There's a lot of statcast data in ZiPS, and there has been for aquite a while!

12:25

Though I'm slow to integrate new things until I *know* how their use improves a model

and I'm a stickler for getting new, real data tested, not just relying on stuff like cross-validation

James

12:25

Is the Astros current injured list a better roster than Colorado?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

The top-end talent sure, but the back of the injured roster would be very shallow if you played a very weird theoretical season

Mi Nombre

12:26

NL rookies as a whole have produced 5.3 WAR (position players) and 3.9 rWAR (pitchers).

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Nice catch, I haven't checked on that at ALL

League-wide, the difference is significant

12:28

MLB hitter rookie WAR 2023: 67.6. 2024: 49.0

This year: 16!

Pitcher rookie WAR 2023: 46.4

12:29

pitcher rookie WAR 2024: 60.8

pitcher rookie WAR 2025: 13.3

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