JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/30/22

Dan Szymborski

12:00

Greetings all! I've recovered from the trendy malady of the 2020s more or less so we're back on regular schedule.

The Guy who asks the lunch question

12:01

Glad to have you back, Dan. What's for lunch?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

Coke

(the soda, not the drug)

12:03

My appetite has been very poor over the last week. On the plus side, I've dropped 11 pounds

Bruce in 2023

12:03

Who do you like more as an extra bat in a daily roto: Jarren Duran or Jake Meyers ? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Meyers probably

M's Fan

12:03

It appears ZIPs was right about Julio. Has ZIPs opinion on Torkelson changed?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

ZiPS is far from giving up on torque, but his rough season so far does factor in

Angelus Novus

12:04

I thank you for being one of the few national writers who has interesting takes on the Orioles other than "Tanking is evil" "Grrrrr Angelos" "The Orioles are a doormat for X good team"

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Call 'em as I see 'em! I've certainly had plenty of negative O's pieces.

But I feel there are reasons to be positive even if the team is not actually good YET.

M's Fan

12:04

Why does Marco Gonzales seem to outperform his ZIPs every year?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Well, does he? Let me call him up

12:07

From 2015-2021, ZiPS projected a 4.28 ERA, a 98 ERA+ and 9.0 WAR

12:08

He was 4.06, 104, 9.6

So far in 2022, ZiPS has underestimate the ERA but overestimated the FIP and WAR

12:09

ZiPS saw 4.38/4.52/0.9 at this point of the season going into the season, he's at 3.31/5.38/-0.2

12:10

Though I'm not surprised; accuracy is hard, but bias is easier to wring out of a system

Missing in ZiPS are not predictive.

(As in direction)

Angelus Novus

12:10

Which of Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, DL Hall, and Kyle Stowers will be up this year? Any thoughts on their timelines?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I think we'll see SOME of all of them.

we've already had a tiny bit of stowers

12:11

It'll be hard to keep Henderson/Westburg completely down given how they've played.

Hall is the one I think may not get a taste. Still some issues to work out

Angelus Novus

12:11

Is there any MILB infielder with better projections than Gunnar Henderson?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

ZiPS now has him better than Volpe, so he'd be the best infield prospect

Travis

12:11

Will Michael Harris end up with more WAR this season than Cristian Pache has by the end of his career?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

It's a real possibility

Inaccessible Rail

12:11

It seems to me that there are financial incentives for fringe roster guys to go on the IL. Has anyone ever looked at this to see if these players are indeed more likely to land there?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I haven't seen anything of this type

I doubt teams want to encourage it

Inaccessible Rail

12:12

The Mets could use a bullpen arm or two, but they don’t want to trade any prospects. Would a team like the Cubs be willing to pair, say, David Robertson and a bad contact like Jason Heyward for a minimal prospect return? What team seems most likely to be willing to do this kind of deal?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I think the Cubs would try and get a better prospect first. I don't think they're intending to go up against threshold this winter

RTJ

12:13

Can we get your official take on the Freeman Chronicles

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I put it in the category of gossip

It's very he said he said

12:14

Each party has a motivation to put the best spin on the talks. And there doesn't have to be any *intent* to be misleading, it's just how the brain works

Think Rashōmon

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