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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/26/25

Dan Szymborski

11:59

It's chat time!

James

12:01

Half of the Astros current rotation is basically guys picked up off the scrap heap. Is their performance sustainable and do any of them have middle rotation potential going forward?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

This is something the Astros are really good at, though. And really, most of the rotation is just averageish, which is sustainable. Brown and Valdez being good really carries the group and there's no reason to be suspicious

Galen

12:02

If the Twins decide to sell pieces off. What would you expect the market for Buxton and/or Correa to be? Buxton would have to wave his no trade, but I think he might if they are out of the WC race at the deadline.

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I'd expect Buxton, if actually tradeable, would fetch a good price. Correa's been kind of meh, so I don't think the Twins would get a nice return if they're not eating money

Dansby Swansong

12:04

Dan, what are the major issues with the expected lockout after the 2026 season?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Well, the owners are making noise about a salary cap, though it remains to be seen whether this is just rhetoric to "concede" later.

12:05

The fundamental issues for players - slower salary growth than MLB's revenue growth - remains just what it was

The service time games, at least, haven't been generally as obvious as in the past

War2d2

12:05

Hi Dan! I’ve been running Volpe out there as my SS in a 5x5 keeper league, but he’s been meh. Correa is available off the wire (because he’s been trbl). The thing is, Correa seems to be heating up, and he has the track record. Would you stick with Volpe or make the switch? I don’t have the roster space to carry both. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski

12:06

In a KEEPER league, I'd probably hang onto Volpe over Correa

Reynolds Wrap

12:06

It’s shocking to me how badly B. Reynolds has played for the Buccos this year. Just bad luck or is this what his career winding down looks like?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

THIS bad, it's shocking. However, 2021 was never the player he was, he's a league-averageish player.

But the thing is, this is a bit too soon for a cliff to be typical

Kevin

12:08

You recently mentioned preseason team projections actually do a better job projecting the following season’s results than the upcoming season’s results. Why would that be? And wouldn’t that be cause to make changes to the model for the upcoming season? Have you already done that?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Because recency bias is huge

12:09

And obviously, you wouldn't predict 2026 using 2025's preseason projections

It's only interesting that it's more predictive than ACTUAL 2025 data

Guest

12:10

Out of Vientos, Baty, Mauricio, and Acuna, should the percentages suggest that at least one should be able to cover 3B for the Mets at a league-average level for a couple of years? Or is this a case of a 4 guys with a 25% chance of working out not adding up to 100%?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

PIcking out WHO is the tricky part. I'm more bullish on Vientos than his current offensive numbers, though Baty's almost certainly the superior fielder

I'm not sure the latter two have enough chance to hit enough to really be plausible 3B, but who knows

Guest

12:10

What is the difference between Hard Hit% and Hard %? FG seems to have two, one is from Baseball Info Solutions and the other seems to be more regularly used. Why one over another?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Statcast uses 95 mph. I don't think BIS uses a bright line, but I COULD be wrong

12:12

and really, the differences aren't enough to really agonize about

I am the Apple

12:12

Which non-baseball thing would ZiPS be best at?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Heating my office

I am the Apple

12:12

Which non-baseball thing would Szymborski, Dan be best at?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

video games, piano

Bob Loblaw

12:12

I believe you mentioned that you are an agnostic. Would believing in a simulated reality challenge that considering a simulation would have a creator/creators?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I'm agnostic. I lack sufficient evidence of the state of the universe to know one way or the other

and I do believe there's a chance that we're in a simulation, though it doesn't have any practical effect

I am the Apple

12:13

Which non-baseball thing is best?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

tacos?

Coolidge

12:14

The dispensationalists have taken over. Lord help us!

Lowe Distribution System

12:14

Projection question: if two guys in AAA have the same stats on everything, but one is 21 years old and one is 27, would they project differently just for the rest of the season? I ask because it seems like whenever we see an old guy killing it in AAA he still isn't useful even on the bench in the majors

Dan Szymborski

12:14

short term, USUALLY no. It's more o f along term thing

but you rarely get disputes that neat

Guest

12:14

Do you think the emphasis on swing speed metrics could lead to an increase in back injuries among hitters? Could this become an endemic issue, similar to how advanced pitching data has coincided with a rise in elbow surgeries?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Unfortunately, I know little more about human physiology than a general idea how babies are made. I would imagine that swing speed could cause more back injuries in people who swing BADLY

I imagine that most players get good enough coaching by this level that it probalby doesn't make a difference

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