JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/10/2019

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/10/2019

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Dan Szymborski

12:01

The prophecy of the chat has been fulfilled.

Roberto

12:01

Brandon Lowe has been fun to watch, but there must be some regression on the way, right? What's a realistic expectation for his ROS?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

I actually had a dream about Brandon Lowe the other night that had no extra base hits and I decided to model ISO by BMI out of curiosity

12:02

But for some reason, Lowe was 6-6 and huge in my dream, which he is not.

The power is likely real, but I expect the BA to come down somewhat

Impatient Manchild

12:03

Where is the Szymborski prospect list?!?!

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Coming! I'm finishing anothe rproject for the site first.

Benji

12:03

Dan, do think Matt Boyd can command a haul at the trade deadline? Comparable to Archer/Quintana packages, or is that a bit strong? SDP makes a lot of sense

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I suspect the Tigers don't trade Boyd.

They wouldn't trade Fulmer when it made obvious sense.

12:05

So I'm not sure they're going to be interested in trading someone who now appears better than Fulmer who they have a *better* shot at having when they're good again

Xolo

12:05

Is Boyd's breakout for real, either as an ace or just a top of the rotation arm?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I think he's mostly for real - it's not fueled by some weird BABIP jump. I do think he could use one more pitch though.

12:08

His locations have been incredible this year, he's kinda got the hang of his slider that he fixed up last year

12:09

He used to throw it a lot harder and since, it's largely supplanted his changeup

I'd kinda like to see the curve more and a bit more variation in the slider speed though. I think it woudl give his repertoire additional heft.

Derek in LIttle Rock

12:09

Dan, I may have missed the announcement but did you ever reveal your 2019 season win total (and player prop) picks? I remember you mentioning you had feelings about San Diego that almost met the threshold of the 2018 Braves, so I figure they're among your plays. Let me know so I can root along with you when I'm watching some random Monday night June game when one of your picks is involved.

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I didn't do an official prop picks piece. Other pieces came up and I never got to it.

I only did four team over/unders this year, all NL West teams

Padres over 78.5, Rockies under 84.5, Diamondbacks over 75.5, Giants under 73.5

12:13

While ZiPS justified an Indians bet, the team's OF downside and depth really worried me.

The error bars were too large to me for a team over 90

I'm not a compulsive bettor. I bet if I see opportunities. I don't if I don't.

12:14

I generally do fewer bets because as public uses more projections and Vegas is long been aware of projections, you start to see fewer bet vs. projection discrepancies

Xolo

12:14

Between Reyes and Renfroe, which one should the Padres build around or can they carry two guys with such similar profiles?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Franmillionaire.

Matt

12:14

Do you think that social media has contributed to a degradation of language? For example: (replying to an article about vlad jr maybe being in HR derby) "This would be AMAZING".....would it? Or would it actually just be par for the course, as the type of thing one would expect from the HR Derby?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

LIkely, but I think that was already happening.

Louis CK did a bit about that, someone saying something was amazing and it was something mundane and something amazing should like explode your brain

(I think the word was amazing)

That's why we should invent new words.

And we get new words from culture

12:16

My mom's Michael Scott in some ways, so I've taught her words like awesomesauce and amazeballs which she uses in conversations.

DeGromination

12:16

Talk to me about Darvish! He’s cutting the walks, bit by bit, and still not giving up many bombs. I’m bullish

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I'm moderately

It's been happening bit by bit but I wish the bit velocity was higher

yordan alvarez

12:16

yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez

love

2

Dan Szymborski

12:16

That's fair.

REmember I wrote about him!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yordan-alvarez-has-figured-out-this-baseba...

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