JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/2/24

Dan Szymborski

12:03

G'day!

It is a time for chats.

seth

12:03

el-ly el-ly el-ly

Dan Szymborski

12:03

THATS A STATEMENT NOT A QUESATION

Champdo

12:04

If Riley Greene stays healthy do you think he’s a 4+ war player this season? Also what do you think a Greene extension would look like?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I think so, it wasn't even a stretch coming into the season either

He's been a lot better waiting for his pitch

12:06

(Sorry, running ZiPS for Greene)

For one, ZiPS does think he's a four win player

4.1 WAR projected wins for 2025

12:07

ZiPS suggests 6/124 if you're going to extend him past his FA debut

Guest

12:08

When you’re making/updating projections do you regress to the league average mean or the player mean? Or both? If both how do you weight them?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

It's complicated, depending on what you're looking at

in-season, ZiPS is regressing toward league

12:09

but season to season, the regression toward the mean is "baked in" by the regression toward the mean of the large cohort of similar players

Phil

12:09

Nice job getting this chat in the hour before Kyle Bradish v. Carlos Rodon. Which pitcher would you rather have?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Even ignoring money, Bradish

12:10

while Rodon came back from injury with velocity intact, his slider is really missing its bite and as such, he's missing a lot fewer bats

Guest

12:10

Matt Olson in trouble?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I can't say April, so just no

Chooch

12:10

It's no longer April, so that means Turnbull is for real right? What would you do wrt the bottom of the Phillies rotation. How do you view Turnbull vs. Walker?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

In teh sense of his FIP, sure, though not his current ERA

He's shown flashes in the past

12:12

He was on a nice little run in Detroit before tommy john

Guest

12:12

Where were you last Thursday instead of doing your chat?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I had done a full ZiPS run overnight and needed to write my Sox piece in the morning so it could be up before games started that day

12:13

I didn't file my piece until 12:45 on Thursday, and it was too late to do chat

Guest

12:13

‘Sup Dan. The other night (due to catchers interference on a ball in play) Mike Shildt had a choice to make: 1) runners at 1st and 2nd 2 outs and a run in or 2) bases loaded 1 out but take the run off the board. Machado coming to bat. He chose #2 and it worked out, but… what would you have done?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I'll be honest, I didn't see it live so it's hard for me to say outside an off the cuff guess

12:15

I'd personally prefer the first, but I haven't crunched the numbers

Guest

12:15

Have you noticed chats getting less weird over the years? Have a theory that more people have actual questions / urgency due to the proliferation of sports gambling. They don't have time for chili or geoism or pretending to be your mom. Or maybe fangraphs has gone more mainstream?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I don't know, are they? I haven't really noticed. My chat's still pretty weird

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:15

Oof, you're going to have to do a Mike Trout ZiPS Time Warp to 2019 or so, just so we can see what the numbers would have looked like at the end without a complete physical breakdown. (Relatedly, Anthony Rendon's before-Anaheim projections would be interesting to look back on.)

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Maybe I'll do that after the season

Dan Straily sighting

12:16

Last year at Camden Yards I spotted a guy in the front rows with an O’s “Straily” jersey. Name rang a bell. Google reminded me the O’s released him in 2019 after he gave up 22 HRs in 47 IP.
Question - was the man I saw actually Dan Straily, and if not, who was it?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

It would be weird for him to go around wearing the jersey from his worst stint in the majors which basically sent him overseas for good

12:18

I'm sure Smoltz doesn't sign autographs wearing his Red Sox jersey

Maddoning

12:18

Shota Imanaga....has more wins (5) than walks (4). This is not sustainable of course, but can we expect more dominance like this?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

To THIS degree? probably not

12:19