JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 5/15/25

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 5/15/25

Dan Szymborski

12:01

Ah, we meet again, Fangraphiers!

12:01

Better stash? Cowser or Meadows?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

Cowser, I think. You're not rewarded for the best stuff Parker Meadows does!

.330/50

12:02

I looked it up on stat muse, and, weirdly, there are seven seasons where a player hit 50+ hr with a .349+ BA. And there are seven where a player hit 50+ with a .329+ BA. Barry in 01 was at .328 and one of Foxx's two biggest years was .349. So... I know Zips doesn't think AJ can keep THIS up, but given he's been hitting like .370 for more than a year now, where would you rank the season all time if he "slumps" to finish the year at like a .335/.440/.712 with 50+ (again, measurably worse than he has been over the past year)? To me it would basically just be Barry and his special sauce since expansion ahead of it.

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I can't give an exact ranking off-hand, but it's an absolutely monster season, and I think it would cement his status as a Sandy Koufax-esque Hall of Famer if something bad happened.

I would personally argue he's already at that level, but I strongly suspect I'm much more willing to vote for a dizzying-peak/shortish career guy than most writers are

AL Only

12:04

Keeper league. Got offered Pasquatino ($33) and Barger (NA) for Mize ($8). I need hitting. Have Logan Gilbert, Hunter Brown, Pepiot, Bassit, Littell. Do I have enough pitching to cover and would you do deal?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Wait, is this a $260 league? That's certainly a dollar figure for Pasquantino

12:06

With Logan Gilbert still in rehab, I'm not sure you have enough pitching.

Certainly not enough for a trade that needs stuff to work out well for you to get what you want in return

Pete

12:07

Hi Dan - who do you like better for the rest of the season - Cade Horton or Logan Henderson?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Henderson I think.

Broken Bat

12:07

Zips has Roman Anthony with 336 at bats. Does this projection seem right, or if he is called up soon, conservative? Does the 336 indicate Zips saw a maybe late June call up date?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Remember, ZiPS is basically agnostic about where a player gets his playing time!

Broken Bat

12:08

Who are the top 5 SP currently in MILB that Zips like the most for next 2-3 years per forecast?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I'm assuming you're not going to let me get away with MLB pitchers on rehab?

12:12

If we're just short term, Zebby Matthews, Quinn Mathews, and Bubba Chandler

Matt

12:12

Hey Dan, what does the Cub’s starting rotation look like on August 1?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

There's a whole lotta stuff that can happen!

Rube

12:13

Can you give an example of how you view baseball through a Bayesian lens?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Hmm, I'm not quite sure how to verbalize such a thing!

12:14

I guess on some level, when I see an event, there's a part of me that asks "how does this make me feel like the situation changed?"

bringbackpologrounds

12:15

What should a Masyn Winn extension look like, and do you think STL gets it done?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I don't honestly think they're going to move on anything right now with the GM future still kinda in limbo

Nick

12:16

Have I missed your AI list of team mottos for 2024-2025, or did you stop generating them? Those always made me laugh

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Everyone started using text AI so it was a lot less fun.

I was doing old school GPT-3 and training it myself on existing mottos

12:18

but it's less fun now and more likely to just piss people off. So I only really use it for specific things that amuse me

12:18

If I recall correctly, not only does May have Ides (every month does) but it is one of 4 where it falls on the 15th.

bringbackpologrounds

12:19

Geraldo Perdomo is signed for $11 million per year from 26-29. Will this be the biggest bargain in baseball?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

The biggest bargain in baseball is almost always going to be a superstar not quite at two years of service time

Glorbus

12:20

The White Sox are 4-1 since the Sox Pope was elected. How do you account for a team gaining the Mandate of Heaven in FanGraph’s playoffs odds?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

heh

BAJ

12:20

Do you know Judge's 99% zWAR?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

All the WAR

Lninefingers

12:20

Do you think Detroit runs away with the AL Central?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Runs away? No, they'll come back a bit. But they're probably the best constructed team in the division right now

Wrights_Back

12:21

Is what the Mets are doing with their pitching staff a revolution, skill, or luck? Eg, save $20 Mn on a front line pitcher and put the savings into a Griffin Canning and a bunch of technology?
Related question: is the WAR variability of a pitcher greater than a position player (basically through injury) to make the strategy behind roster construction different (I'm looking at you, Dodgers, with about a million pitchers on the DL).

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Skill and luck are intertwined! You can be the luckiest SOB on the planet, but you need skill to put yourself in a position to leverage that luck.

Kip

12:21

At this point, is it safe to say Matt Olson's great 2023 was mostly due to the juiced baseballs?

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