JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/11/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:00

And I have returned from a lengthy vacation and a Thursday in which I was way behind on an article I had to finish up!

26 Pitchers

12:00

Logan Webb or Joe Ryan rest of season/career?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

I'm still a Webb slinger, but I'm quite bullish on Joe Ryan. And hey, ZiPS never disliked him and that splitter's been kickass

B Snit’s Bongos

12:01

Should a manager ever put on a sacrifice bunt?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

Yeah, there are specific situations it's useful

for example, you don't need a high probability of a sacrifice bunt becoming a hit to make it worthwhile

12:02

and second, the threat of a bunt is at least useful. if nobody ever bunted, then that would be a good situation for a bunt!

so if you have a fast guy who can bunt well, it's frequently a good strategy, so long as you're not just thinking of it as a sacrifice.

B Snit’s Bongos

12:05

Who will accrue the most WAR during the 2030 season? Bogaerts, Correa, Swanson, Turner, or V. Grissom?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I'd probably guess Correa

HappyFunBall

12:06

Welcome back Dan! True or False, the CIN organization has a better offensive lineup in Louisville than they do in Cincinnati?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I was going to be snarky, but looking at Louisville's roster, it's at least close!

Jake

12:07

I could use some clarification about how to contextualize exit velocity. Are MLB players hitting the ball, say, 110 mph+ off the bat impressive because A) they are simply uniquely capable of using wood bats to hit baseballs at EVs in that range, or B) they are uniquely capable of hitting baseballs thrown by MLB pitchers at EVs in that range? I'm almost certain that it's the former (MLB pitchers screw up and throw meatballs that some players can't hit 110 mph), but I feel like I would be more impressed by max EV numbers if I knew a particular hit was, say, 75% harder than the max EV at which an average guy on the street could hit that pitch.

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I don't believe htere's been a public study of average dudes.

HOWEVER

there *is* a study of average dudes: pitchers

as most of them are not Ohtanis

Ohtanii?

The Ohtanescenti?

12:12

(Sorry, looking this up)

Lemme answer more Qs while this one is brewing

12:13

during the Statcast era, only three pitchers not named Shohei Ohtani have hit a 110 mph pitch

errr

hit a pitch 110 mphj

Madison Bumgarner, Daniel Mengden, Nick Ramirez

12:14

Buit Ramirez doesn't count

he was a hitter

Mengden played OF in college

12:15

So 110 is pretty hard for anyone!

B Snit’s Bongos

12:15

Would you rather your club led MLB in home runs, run differential, or wins?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

wins ideally

laxtonto

12:15

I need a beer

Strider Stache

12:15

What’s your approach to the rotation if you’re AA? The Braves are good enough to rely on internal options, but would you be looking around for depth starters? Love how Elder’s performed but still not comfortable with him as the #3 for the foreseeable future

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I actually have a piece in the hopper

Jewish Pache

12:15

Can Outman keep this up and win ROY? If you had to guess who wins right now is it him, Carroll, or someone else

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I still think Carroll gets it

I am the Apple

12:17

If Shohei Ohtani’s pitching and hitting seasons in the NPB are translated to MLB WAR, what numbers are we looking at?